RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 23 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
With rosters expanding this week, we will get the chance to see a lot of interesting fantasy option popping up throughout the league. So keep an eye out next week for some newcomers to potentially make this list.
In the meantime though it's time for our weekly recap. There's no doubt as to who the Week 21 winning pick was, as Dakota Hudson went 2-0 with 12 2/3 scoreless innings and nine strikeouts against the Brewers and the Rockies. As for Week 22, Anthony DeSclafani is the frontrunner from that column after earning the win with seven shutout innings and eight strikeouts against the Marlins.
Let's take a look now at this week's two-start streamers as we kick off the month of September.
Week 23 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Aaron Civale, CLE - 49% owned
Probable opponents: vs CHW, @ MIN
Don't let the 2-3 record fool you, Civale has been a force to be reckoned with for the Indians over the last month. Over six outings, he has a 1.96 ERA and five quality starts while striking out 30 in 36 2/3 innings of work.In his last start, Civale allowed two runs over seven innings while striking out five against the Tigers.
He'll start off the week at home against the White Sox, who have averaged 4.0 runs and 9.8 strikeouts per game over their last 10 games. Civale will also have the benefit of Chicago's struggles against right-handed starters, as the White Sox are hitting .246 with a .670 OPS against right-handed starters as opposed to a .273 average and .777 OPS against left-handed starters. His second start will be the tough matchup of the week, as the Twins have averaged 7.6 runs and 10.5 strikeouts while hitting .286 over their last 10 games. Civale has already faced Minnesota once this year, limiting the Twins to just one run over six innings with five strikeouts, and much like Chicago, the Twins have also hit worse against right-handed starters (.268, .829 OPS) than against lefties (.285, .886).
Civale will have a good matchup against the White Sox, and a coin-toss matchup against the Twins. That Minnesota start will be the deciding factor for most owners this week as to whether they will pick him up or not, My money says that Civale should keep the Twins' offense in check this week and will end up as one of the top — if not the top — option from this week's column.
Tanner Roark, OAK - 39% owned
Probable opponents: vs LAA, vs DET
Roark had struggled in his last month with Cincinnati prior to the trade deadline, but since joining Oakland he has been pitching much better. In five starts with the Athletics, Roark is 2-1 with a 3.30 ERA and 27 strikeouts over 30 innings.
He opens up the week against the Angels, as he makes his second start of the year against them. His last time out, Roark allowed one earned run over 5 1/3 innings while striking out six Angels, but he did not factor into the decision in that game. The Angels will enter the game having averaged 4.3 runs and 8.8 strikeouts while hitting .221 over their last 10 games, and they are hitting slightly worse on the road (.250 average, .743 OPS) than at home (.254, .781). Roark will follow up this start with a matchup against Detroit, as the Tigers are averaging 4.1 runs and 11.0 strikeouts per game while hitting .252 over their last 10 games. The Tigers are also hitting significantly worse against right-handed starters (.229, .659) than lefties (.267, .761), which should benefit Roark.
Roark has to be the next target for owners if Civale is already picked up this week. Civale has slightly higher upside, but a pair of soft opponents this week makes Roark a solid option in most leagues.
Week 23 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Dylan Cease, CHW - 14% owned
Probable opponents: @ CLE, vs LAA
After getting rocked to the tune of eight runs in two innings his last time out against the Twins, Cease will look to rebound this week against the Indians and the Angels. He'll open the week on the road in Cleveland, as he faces an Indians offense that has averaged 4.1 runs and 7.1 strikeouts over their last 10 games. Cease will also benefit from Cleveland's batting splits, as they are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.246, .739) than against lefties (.262, .804). After Cleveland, Cease will return home to face the Angels, who lit him up for five runs over five innings in his last start against them. That being said, Cease should still benefit from the Angels' recent struggles at the plate as well as the home-road splits that Roark will benefit from.
Cease has been pitching a little rough lately, but this week has the potential to be a bounceback week against Cleveland and Los Angeles. Owners should pick up Cease if they're looking for strikeouts and willing to risk a slightly elevated ERA this week.
Mitch Keller, PIT - 10% owned
Probable opponents: vs MIA, vs STL
Much like Cease, Keller enters this week looking to rebound after a rough time out in his last start. Keller lasted only four innings against Philadelphia, allowing eight runs on 11 hits, but he also had eight strikeouts against the Phillies. He'll have a great matchup to get back on track for his first start of the week, as he faces the Marlins at home. Miami is averaging 4.5 runs and 10.7 strikeouts while hitting .228 over their last 10 games, On top of that, the Marlins are hitting 22 points worse against right-handed starters than lefties, and they are hitting 13 points worse on the road than at home. After Miami though, Keller will face a difficult start against the Cardinals, who are averaging 6.6 runs and 6.7 strikeouts over their last 10 games.
This is your "One good start, one bad start" pitcher of the week. Keller should have a great outing against Miami, and while he might take a slight hit to ERA against the Cardinals, he should provide enough strikeout value to make up for it. Between Keller and Cease in Week 23, target Keller first and Cease second based solely on upside from the Marlins start.
Drew Smyly, PHI - 5% owned
Probable opponents: @ CIN, @ NYM
I'm going to be completely honest — Smyly is a desperation, lottery ticket option for this week. He's struggled over his last four starts with a 6.75 ERA, but he does have 18 strikeouts in 20 innings of work over that span. Smyly will start off the week against the Reds, who have averaged 4.0 runs and 9.7 strikeouts while hitting .233 over their last 10 games. He'll then face off against the Mets, who are also averaging 4.0 runs over their last 10 games while averaging 7.5 strikeouts and hitting .243 in that span. Smyly should also benefit from New York's home road splits, as they are hitting 14 points worse at home than on the road.
Like I said, Smyly is a lottery pick that should be available in virtually every league. He's not going to single-handedly win your league this week, but he should provide a solid boost that could help make the difference. Target Smyly last out of the guys on this list, but if you need someone he's in line to help you out for Week 23.
