Trading Up: Offensive Category Targets

July 24, 2018

David Emerick profiles offensive targets for fantasy baseball.

This article is the fourth in our series on trade and acquisition targets for the second half of the season.

Part 1: Top-50 Players to Target
Part 2: Mid-Tier and Bargain Targets on Offense
Part 3: Mid-Tier and Bargain Pitchers
Part 4: Offensive Category Targets
Part 5: Pitching Category Targets

Tweaking an offense to strengthen an area of weakness can often be the move that clinches a championship. For Rotisserie owners, in particular, improving one or two categories can make all the difference. Sometimes adding another ten runs, for instance, can be the difference in three or four points alone. In head-to-head, there’s so much variance that it can be difficult to tweak a team in this way, though it can be done, especially with counting stats.

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Overview

Each section below focuses on players who offer strong value for a specific category while not crippling a team in others. Each player profile provides a rest-of-season projection for the target player. Areas of particular strength are bolded. Areas of particular weakness are listed in red. Some players on the list provide strength in multiple categories. Projections are arranged as R/HR/RBI/SB/AVG./OBP. 

Projected rest-of-season averages for players in a 12-team league.

Runs: 28
Home Runs: 8
Runs Batted In: 28
Stolen Bases: 3
Batting Average: .267
On-Base Percentage: .339

Runs

Ender Inciarte: Despite an ugly batting average and OBP, Inciarte is a potential bargain for runs and stolen bases. He’s hitting first in Atlanta’s young and prosperous lineup, which means that when he does get on base, he has a high chance of scoring. Moreover, he’s had an unlucky BABIP of .269, so expect positive regression for those disappointing ratios. When you consider that he’s already scored 52 runs with his .312 OBP and that he’s had a .346 OBP the previous three seasons, it’s easy to see why Inciarte’s run production should only increase. His additional ten steals are just gravy.
ROS Projection: 40/5/23/10/.275/.335

Matt Carpenter: Don’t count on the power surge to continue. Don’t count on him generating another 40 RBI. But Matt Carpenter gets on base and scores runs. He’s a run-scoring machine. Some of the magic is Carpenter’s OBP. Some of the magic is his leadoff spot in the Cardinals’ lineup. Some of the magic is Cardinals’ voodoo. Don’t overlook his .949 OPS. Carpentry may be a humble profession, but it deserves our full and immediate respect.

ROS Projection: 38/10/29/1/.260/.375

Honorable Mention: Michael Brantley, Tommy Pham, Cesar Hernandez, Lorenzo Cain

Home Runs

Matt Olson: I've written about Matt Olson so much this season that I was going to leave him in the honorable mention section. Then he hit two more home runs last night, and I had no choice but to make him my number one recommendation in this section. Here are Matt Olson's statistics for the last calendar year: 159 G, 80 R, 41 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB, .251 BA, .319 OBP. The last number there is not pretty, but let's be honest, you blacked out at the 41 HRs. Olson's batted-ball profile is like something out of a comic book: 51% hard-hit rate (Wham!),  56 LD+FB% (Ka-Boom!), .388 xwOBA (Pow!), 97.6 FB/LD velocity (BAMF!). Olson is currently ranked outside the top-100 by most analysts and being traded at a value well below Joey Gallo. I guess people don't like the raw sex of Joey Gallo-power with a better average, runs, and RBI.

ROS Projection: 32/15/36/1/.241/.334

Joey Gallo:
This particular recommendation is contingent on Gallo being available at a cost outside the top-100 players and your league settings or team strengths. Gallo gets traded for a wide range of players, but his peripherals suggest his HR/FB rate could improve, and his batting average for the rest of the season could be good enough not to cause radiation sickness.
ROS Projection: 30/16/32/2/.225/.334

Khris Davis: As far as low-average power hitters, Davis is a reliable plug-and-play option. He’s not cheap, but he is consistently undervalued by anyone willing to trade him away. In years past, his batting average was so consistently poor that he was a relative steal. Here’s the real beauty, now that batting averages have dropped so much, Davis is only below average. His annual .247  is 100% tolerable. The problem can be that many of his owners already appreciate his value, which may make it difficult to swing a deal in many leagues.

ROS Projection: 34/15/40/.247/.325

Honorable Mention: Cody Bellinger, Wilson Contreras, and Bryce Harper (Owners are low on Harper, that’s good for you. If you need power and he's available, I would invest with extreme prejudice.)

RBI

Eugenio Suarez: Suarez is a bargain relative to his price, but he shouldn’t be purchased as a player who is going to hit .300 and get on base at a nearly .400 clip. Suarez should offer serious RBI production and above-average runs and HRs. He's currently ranked fifth in RBIs. That’s more impressive when you consider he suffered a broken thumb in April and spent 17 days on the DL. The Reds emphasize getting on base, and Suarez usually bats behind three players who get on base 40% of the time. By context alone, he’s going to see opportunities to drive in runs. However, Suarez makes the most of that context. He's developed into a player who consistently hits the ball well when there are runners on base: .359 BA, 1.116 OPS, .461 wOBA.

ROS Projection: 35/12/43/.267/.358

Edwin Encarnacion: I almost included Encarnacion in the HR section, but if the primary goal is dingers, Davis and Gallo currently look like better values than Encarnacion. If you need both HRs and RBI, then Encarnacion should be your primary target. Encarnacion’s batting average and OBP are due for modest positive regression but don’t expect anything better than a ten-point increase in either one. Encarnacion sells out for power, and it hurts him as a fantasy asset, but he bats fourth behind three exceptional table-setters, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Jose Ramirez. You could put me in that spot, and I’d drive in another 35 runs this season. That’s the beauty of buying Encarnacion to improve your RBI numbers: He doesn’t need to improve at all to be a huge value in the category. You can expect that positive regression, but even if he continues to perform at his current level, he’ll offer elite RBI production.

ROS Projection: 34/16/44/0/.242/.335

Honorable Mention: Albert Pujols, Greg Bird, Matt Kemp, Nomar Mazara

Stolen Bases

Steals are like saves, don’t pay for them. If you’re going to pay for them, I’d probably go after Ender Inciarte.

Delino DeShields: DeShields is available in most leagues. His average should rebound towards .240. He scores enough runs not to be utterly one-dimensional. He missed three weeks after suffering a broken hand, so his actual steals are somewhat depressed by missed time. He’s enjoying the best success rate of his career and is on pace for 35 steals in 162 games. He probably won’t get there this season, but he could manage 30, especially if a few of his singles start falling into the gaps.

ROS Projection: 30/3/18/14/.240/.325

Tim Anderson: The Joey Gallo of steals. Just kidding, that’s not even remotely fair because Anderson offers respectable power and strong speed, but you don’t see Joey Gallo out there swiping bags like the Hamburgler. Anderson is a more attractive player than DeShields, but it’s less likely that he’s going make a significant dent in your steals total and he's likely already owned in most leagues.

ROS Projection: 30/7/25/11/.255/.300

Honorable Mention: Michael Taylor, Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, Garrett Hampson if the Rockies let him run.

Batting Average

Michael Brantley: Originally, this spot was held by DJ LeMahieu, but his recent oblique strain knocks him out of contention. Brantley slides up a spot even though his price on the trade market has gotten more expensive in the last month. Still, if your focus is batting average, he’s probably the cheapest reliable source other than Jose Martinez. His strong contact skills and speed ensure a moderate floor while the team context guarantees useful production in the other categories.

ROS Projection: 37/8/37/3/.310/.355

Jose Martinez: Martinez's trade value is plummeting right now. There's no evidence that new manager Mike Shildt will make him an everyday starter again or that the Cardinals will immediately trade him. The Cards are a good organization though, so they have to know that every day that they go with Martinez on the bench hurts his real-world trade value for the team. In fantasy baseball, we’re mostly past the hype on Martinez, who has hit only 13 HRs this season. Even with his .298 batting average, Martinez shouldn’t cost a fortune to acquire, and he isn’t due for massive regression. His .323 BABIP is on the high side, but it’s not anomalous. Meanwhile, his Statcast xBA is .313, indicating there is room for his batting average to improve. The counting stats below are reduced from what I think Martinez would do if he had a guaranteed starting job. His value and those numbers are contingent on being a starter again by the end of the week. Monitor the situation and act accordingly.

ROS Projection: 28/8/31/1/.304/.370

Whit Merrifield: He’s too expensive to buy for steals alone, but if you need batting average, he’s a solid deal. If you need batting average and steals, he should be your number one target unless you can afford someone elite. Merrifield’s speed and batted-ball profile make him a candidate to hold onto a .350+ BABIP, and if he can do that, he should also manage to hit around .300 for the rest of the season. Run and RBI totals will be perfectly pedestrian, and he will outright hurt you in HRs. Otherwise, he's one of the cheapest batting average and speed assets in the game.

ROS Projection: 32/4/24/12/.297/.365

Honorable Mention: Jesse Winker – getting hyped in some circles, so his price has jumped, but it’s worth inquiring; Buster Posey – a steep price, but Posey can lift ratios and provide strong counting stats; Nicholas Castellanos – relies on his batted-ball profile staying elite, Albert Almora Jr.

On-Base Percentage

Shin-Soo Choo: Choo’s batting average and power should regress some, but his OBP has been a consistent strength for him. He’s playing healthy, and while I would expect owners to value him well beyond the waiver wire pick that he was for most owners, he’s also been made available for reasonable prices. Even if he drops 20 points from this batting average, his OBP should remain in the top-20 among league leaders.

ROS Projection: 34/9/28/2/.275/.385

Brandon Belt: There’s no cause for concern about regression with Belt. He’s simply a guy having a good season and doing what he does at a slightly improved rate. Belt has solid plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. He’s not a remarkable player for his power or dynamic approach, but he is a steady source of income.

ROS Projection: 28/8/28/1/.282/.375

Francisco Cervelli: The power may fade. The run and RBI production will suffer at the hands of the Pirates offense, but Francisco Cervelli has done two things  throughout his career. He gets on base and provides strong work behind the plate. The first is why we’re interested in him. The second is why he’s likely to play enough to meaningfully help a team’s OBP numbers despite being a catcher.

ROS Projection: 24/4/21/1/.255/.365

Honorable Mention: Cesar Hernandez, Max Muncy, Jesse Winker, Matt Carpenter, Carlos Santana

Feel free to ask questions or run trades by me @D_Emerick on twitter.