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Ben Rosener's trade scenarios that could play out for the Oakland A's ahead of the 2022 MLB season and their impact on fantasy baseball drafts.
The Oakland A’s might be rebuilding. Or at least something that resembles it to a degree. Of course, that’s purely speculative but Bob Melvin, Mark Canha, and Starling Marte have all departed this winter, and more could follow once the lockout ends.
MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted the following on November 9:
GM David Forst of the cash-strapped A’s said they are willing to listen on everyone. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”
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Any more significant reshuffling in Oakland will not only have major implications on the general baseball landscape but the fantasy baseball landscape as well.
With that in mind and a significant number of potential trade candidates, it’s worth looking at where the most fantasy-friendly situations and best fits are for the A’s impact players. These are those best fits.
Admittedly, there are going to be plenty of contenders listed here. Or if not a contender, then a team looking to contend. A better team generally means more win opportunities for the starting pitchers, and more hold and save opportunities for relievers.
The team has to have a need as well, so while Chris Bassitt would be a good fit with the Kansas City Royals based on their quality group of infield fielders and his propensity for inducing grounders, given that Kansas City is still a year or two away from contention, he wouldn’t be the best fit on paper.
Matt Olson
Best fit: New York Yankees
If it weren’t for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Freddie Freeman, Olson would likely be the best first baseman in fantasy baseball.
The veteran has always been a source of 20-35 home runs and quality on-base numbers, but after cutting his strikeouts considerably last season, he had a career year. Entering last season, the first baseman had a career 23.4% strikeout rate, including a 25.2% number in his last full season in 2019.
Sporting a 16.8% strikeout rate in 2021, the slugger improved his numbers across the board with more contact, setting new personal bests in home runs (39), on-base percentage (.371), ISO (.269), wRC+ (146), and total barrels (59).
Should the A’s move Olson, the Yankees stand out as the best fit from a fantasy standpoint. Atlanta could as well if they don’t bring back Freeman, but New York is probably the destination neutral fans and fantasy managers should root for should an Olson trade occur.
The need is there, with Anthony Rizzo currently a free agent. Plus, the A’s stalwart would be an upgrade over Luke Voit. He’d also allow DJ LeMahieu to play more at third base.
But it’s not just about the need.
The American League East and Yankee Stadium, in particular, appear to be made specifically for Olson.
The first baseman has 89 home runs since the 2019 season started, 91 if you count his postseason homers. That’s a lot as is. In fact, during that span, only Pete Alonso (106) and Eugenio Suarez (95) have more regular-season home runs.
But if he had been playing in Yankee Stadium for the entirety of that time, it would’ve been more. 10 more to be exact, as Olson’s expected home run total in the Bronx since 2019 is 101.
What’s more, he’s done nothing but produce at a number of American League East ballparks. The sample sizes are on the small size, but that’s what you’d expect for a hitter who’s been in a different division for the entirety of his career. At any rate, they’re plenty encouraging.
Matt Olson’s career splits in American League East stadiums:
- Yankee Stadium: 43 PA, .368 average, .442 OBP, 4 HR, 7 RBI, 1 SB
- Camden Yards: 37 PA, .344 average, .432 OBP, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Fenway Park: 36 PA, .286 average, .444 OBP, 4 HR, 7 RBI
- Tropicana Field: 43 PA, .270 average, .372 OBP, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Rogers Centre: 32 PA, .250 average, .344 OBP, 1 HR, 5 RBI
Those numbers are music to fantasy managers’ ears, especially considering the first baseman wouldn’t play as many games at Seattle’s T-Mobile Park and Houston’s Minute Maid Park in the event of a trade – two venues where he hasn’t been as productive historically.
Matt Olson at T-Mobile Park: 158 PA, .217 average, .310 OBP, 9 HR, 26 RBI
Matt Olson at Minute Maid Park: 128 PA, .220 average, .281 OBP, 9 HR, 27 RBI
Matt Chapman
Best Fit: Seattle Mariners
While playing games at T-Mobile Park might not be as advantageous for Olson’s fantasy production, it might be an ideal fit for Oakland’s other impact infielder.
Admittedly, Chapman doesn’t have great career numbers in Seattle – he’s a career .174 hitter with a .250 on-base percentage and four home runs in 158 plate appearances – but a move would certainly help his home run potential.
Using the same expected home run metric as with Olson, Chapman’s home run total would’ve spiked had he been playing in Seattle since 2019. Spiked significantly rather. The third baseman has 73 home runs to his name since 2019. His expected home runs during that span if he played all his games at T-Mobile Park?
91.
Chapman probably isn’t going to be a league winner in the batting average department. He’s hit above .250 just once in his career. That also happened to be the only season in which he logged a BABIP north of .300 (it was .338). However, if he can improve his home run totals and hit close to 40 per season while maintaining quality on-base numbers, a move to Seattle would do wonders for his fantasy value.
Take Brandon Lowe, for example. Lowe hit .247 with a .340 on-base percentage, 39 home runs, and seven stolen bases in 615 plate appearances for the Tampa Bay Rays last season. He was the 39th-highest scoring position player in ESPN’s standard scoring, head-to-head leagues last season.
Chapman, who is currently the 16th third baseman going off the board according to NFBC with an ADP of 186.89, could easily hit those marks if he’s traded to Seattle and gets to play his home games at T-Mobile Park.
In fact, the third baseman had an eerily similar season in 2019 when he hit .249 with a .342 on-base percentage, 36 home runs, and a stolen base in 670 plate appearances, many of which came in Oakland.
What’s more, Seattle could use reinforcements at third base. Abraham Toro looks like the starter there for the moment with Kyle Seager no longer a Mariner. However, if Seattle wants to capitalize on their burgeoning playoff odds, trading for Chapman would make a lot of sense.
It’d make a lot of sense for fantasy managers too.
Sean Murphy
Best Fit: Cleveland Guardians
One of eight catchers in the Majors who hit at least 17 home runs and collected at least 55 RBI last year, Murphy saw the bulk of his plate appearances hitting sixth, seventh, and eighth last season for the A’s.
The best fantasy fit for the 27-year-old (99 wRC+, .188 ISO in 448 plate appearances last season) is somewhere where he can hit further up the lineup, get additional plate appearances, and do more damage in the RBI department.
That might be in Cleveland with the Guardians, where Murphy would provide an immediate boost.
Last season, among Cleveland batters with at least 300 plate appearances, just three finished above league average in terms of both wRC+ (97) and ISO (.167). One was Jose Ramirez, the other two were Franmil Reyes and Cesar Hernandez. Only Ramirez and Reyes are still on the team’s 40-man roster.
If he was dealt to Cleveland, Murphy would have a legitimate shot at topping 75 RBI next season, hitting near Ramirez and Reyes.
For reference, only two catchers, Salvador Perez and Will Smith, finished with more than 75 RBI in 2021.
A career .222 hitter, Murphy probably isn’t going to help you all that much in the batting average department, but he’ll contribute with home runs. If he’s traded to a team like Cleveland, he’ll have plenty more RBI opportunities than he had in Oakland.
Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt
Best Fits: St. Louis Cardinals, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Seattle Mariners
Montas and Bassitt obviously aren’t the same pitcher.
Both rely on their sinkers, but Montas has slightly more velocity with his two-seamer. In 2021, the duo checked in with respective average sinker velocities of 96.2 MPH and 92.7 MPH. Elsewhere, Montas relies more on his split-finger offering (along with a slider) as his primary fastball complement while Bassitt utilizes a mix of a cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball.
You get it. They aren’t the same pitcher.
That being said though, with the similar sinker reliance and somewhat similar K/9 numbers – 9.96 and 9.10 respectively – despite different pitch arsenals, both would be ideal fantasy fits for the same types of teams.
Teams with a quality group of fielders scattered around the infield to collect most of the ground balls generated by all the sinkers.
Teams that seem poised to compete for a playoff spot, thus, ensuring more chances for pitcher wins.
Teams with rotation vacancies or else a need for an upgrade.
The St. Louis Cardinals certainly tick those boxes, with five different infielders who logged a DRS of +5 or better last season. St. Louis has also made the playoffs in 15 of the last 21 seasons and doesn’t seem likely to stop being a contender any time soon, so pitcher wins certainly shouldn’t be hard to come by. Plus, either Montas or Bassitt would be a significant upgrade over Miles Mikolas and Jake Woodford, potentially giving the Cardinals the kind of rotation that can clinch a 16th playoff berth in 22 seasons.
The Detroit Tigers might not have the same level of fielding excellence in the infield as the Cardinals, but with an infield that should consist of Jeimer Candelario, Javier Baez, Jonathan Schoop, and Spencer Torkelson by season’s end, there are enough quality fielders here to be a positive (both in real life and in fantasy) for pitchers who utilize sinkers. Plus, with Baez, Torkelson, Riley Greene, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Tucker Barnhart all joining the mix, Detroit should be much more competitive next season. With a better infield defense and lineup, Montas or Bassitt would stand a good chance at once again reaching double-digit win totals in 2021 if they were dealt to the Tigers.
Then, we have two of Oakland's American League West rivals in the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners.
Intra-division trades aren’t the most common type of transaction that the sport has ever seen, but Oakland certainly isn’t a stranger to making notable trades within the division. They’ve traded Ryon Healy, Khris Davis, and Brandon Bailey within the division and acquired players like Ramon Laureano, Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar, and Emilio Pagan from their division rivals dating back to 2019.
If they move either pitcher within the division, both the Astros and Mariners could each use another frontline starter. Plus, with both teams looking like 90-win teams at the minimum, there are all sorts of fantasy upside here in terms of pitcher wins.
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