RADIO
Justin Carter looks at the top fantasy football rebound candidates for the 2022 NFL season. These players should bounce back and may be undervalued.
Not every player had a great season in 2021. For every breakout like Dalton Schultz finishing as the overall TE3, there was a player who disappointed, like Tyler Higbee playing 15 games and only finishing as the TE14, or Cole Kmet playing 17 games and being the TE20.
For some players who struggled, 2021 is a sign of future struggles. Sticking with the tight end position, for instance, the fact that Jack Doyle finished as TE27 is probably a good sign that the days of Doyle being a streamable fantasy play is over.
Some players are going to bounce back. Let's take a look at five players who I think will rebound in 2022. (Fantasy scoring is for 0.5-PPR leagues).
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Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
2021: QB25 overall, 13.85 points per game
Let's assume that Baker Mayfield is still the quarterback in Cleveland. Per Spotrac, the only way to get out of his deal without an $18.8 million dead cap hit would be to trade him, but is there a team that would want to take on $18.8 million in salary for Baker?
The likeliest scenario here is that the Browns run Mayfield out for one more year and see if he can still be their future at QB. What do you do when you have a disappointing QB and want to hope that he does something? You get him weapons.
The Browns tried to do that by pairing Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. in 2020, but by the end of 2021, Landry was dealing with injuries and Beckham was a Ram. Donovan Peoples-Jones was third on this season's Browns in targets. David Njoku, the team's No. 2 tight end, was fourth.
In projecting Mayfield to rebound back to being a mid-tier fantasy QB2, I'm expecting the Browns to do something, whether via the draft or free agency, to give Mayfield an actual weapon on the outside. This team has Landry and tight end Austin Hooper as chain movers; get him someone more dynamic to pair with those guys, and Mayfield will be a serviceable fantasy option.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
2021: RB32 overall, 9.2 points per game
Welcome to the first of two Giants appearances on this list.
First, we have Saquon Barkley, who's what...two years removed from being the dynasty 1.01? He's been trending down since, playing just two games in 2020 before tearing his ACL.
In 2021, Barkley dealt with an ankle injury, but still played in 13 of 17 possible games. Except, well...he didn't really do much in that time, rushing for just 45.6 yards per game and posting a career-low 6.4 yards per reception.
Barkley's advanced numbers were bad too. Per PlayerProfiler, let's look at his efficiency numbers:
There's not a lot of redeeming stuff there.
However, Barkley also was third among all running backs in the percentage of his carries that came against a stacked front. A lifeless Giants offense led to defenders just stacking up front, stopping the run, and daring the team to throw.
The Giants have made a coaching change. They have some solid receivers. If the team can find something at QB, whether it be Daniel Jones improving or a veteran coming in, then Barkley should find some easier running room. I don't think he's someone you draft like you used to, but a healthy Barkley will post way better numbers.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
2021: WR25 overall, 10.3 points per game
McLaurin played 17 games and posted worse numbers than he did in 2020 when he played 15 games. A lot of that was just the situation. He was fourth in the NFL in air yards, but just 13th in completed air yards. He was 75th among wide receivers in catchable target rate and 46th in target quality rating. McLaurin just wasn't getting good opportunities.
The Football Team should improve at QB next year. Either Taylor Heinicke has another year under his belt or Ryan Fitzpatrick (or another veteran) starts or the team drafts someone like Matt Corral. Whatever the situation, things went about as badly as possible for McLaurin in terms of what kinds of throws were directed towards him and he still finished just outside of the top-30 among receivers in fantasy points per game. He'll be better next year.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
2021: WR84 overall, 5.0 points per game
Let's go back to the Giants offense, for some reason. Golladay was supposed to be a big acquisition for the Giants. Instead, he played 14 games and caught 37 passes. To put that in context, he had 20 catches in 2020...in five games.
Golladay finished the season with just 37.2 yards per game, down from 67.6 in 2020. He caught just 48.7% of his targets, a career-low. And to bring in some of those numbers we used above to talk about the bad quality targets for McLaurin, Golladay's numbers were worse. 66.2% of his targets were "catchable" per PlayerProfiler, which ranks 98th among wide receivers. He was 87th in target quality rating.
We know Golladay is talented. He's two years removed from leading the league in touchdown catches. Barring injury, there's just no way Golladay can be this bad in 2022. Even if the QB situation doesn't improve at all, Golladay isn't being shut out of the end zone again.
Jonnu Smith, New England Patriots
2021: TE34 overall, 3.3 points per game
Alright, these first four picks weren't really hot takey, but this one probably is. I still believe in Jonnu Smith. Yeah, yeah, yeah...I know I shouldn't, logically. Smith's first year in New England was bad, and over the last five games, he only played more than 50% of the snaps once. He also posted his lowest yards per game since his rookie year. He had one touchdown, down from eight in 2020.
At least Smith did see more usage on run plays, with nine carries, and he finished with just five fewer touches than he had in 202o. There's talent here. He's got good workout metrics and led all tight ends in target rates on routes run, with 30.6% of his routes leading to a target. He was seventh at the position in fantasy points per route run.
Smith can be a decent TE2 in fantasy if he's getting looks. There's no guarantee he gets more looks next year, but 2021 showed that he's still someone with upside. He just needs chances. It's more likely than not that he won't get those chances, but I'll hold out some hope that he will.
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