🖥 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE THANKS
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Top Power-Metric Gainers - What to Expect in 2017

The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.

Today's piece caps off our short series looking at those who posted gains in hard-hit, pull and fly ball rates in 2016 -- categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at all three of these metrics individually, but now we're going to tie it all together and look at the names who had at least a 4% gain in each stat. While we're not going to go overboard and expect the world of them in 2017, it's nice to be able to look back at their 2016 stats and know their results weren't just some fluky HR/FB luck.

We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Top Power-Metric Gainers in 2016

Player Name Hard Hit Gain Pull Rate Gain Fly Ball Rate Gain Average Gain
Yasmany Tomas 10% 9.30% 8.20% 9.17%
Matt Holliday 5.20% 12.70% 6.90% 8.27%
Salvador Perez 9.80% 4.40% 9.70% 7.97%
Kevin Kiermaier 6.80% 8.20% 8.30% 7.77%
Jason Kipnis 5.10% 5.50% 9.30% 6.63%
Brad Miller 4.80% 9.60% 5.40% 6.60%
Christian Yelich 4.90% 4.30% 5% 4.73%

 

What to Expect From These Power-Metric Gainers?

Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks – 3B/OF

Tomas is the poster boy for this whole series, as he leads the pack with gains above 8% in all three categories that we’ve analyzed. While some of this is due to his underwhelming 2015 where he only hit nine homers in 426 plate appearances, that still doesn’t mean he was guaranteed to turn it around. The only real question one has to ask themselves is whether they believe in Tomas’ new form that he showed at age-25 and how much regression might hit him. It’s highly unlikely that he can post a 25% HR/FB rate again (tied with Chris Davis) and create such wild value out of a below league-average 31.4% fly-ball rate, but with his other gains then he just might not drop off as much as others fear – let alone if he actually continues to grow.

Matt Holliday, New York Yankees – 1B/OF

Holliday wouldn’t be here if it wasn’t for an injury-hampered 2015 campaign that made his return to “normal” Hollidian levels appear so dramatic. That said, there was no guarantee that the aging slugger was going to be able to bounce back so this is still nice to see – especially before he begins his service at the sandbox known as Yankee Stadium. While his .246 average from ’16 was easily a career worst, it makes sense considering these power-oriented gains he showed. The 20 homers in only 426 PAs matched his 20 homers from 2014, except he needed 667 PAs to do so then. While owners won’t be upset if he reverts back toward his .270s average and lesser power ways, he could blast 25+ homers in Yankee Stadium. He’s currently 12-for-39 with four homers (1.075 OPS) in Spring Training, so I’m buying.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals - C

Perez has slowly turned himself into your stereotypical loud-power, middling-average catcher after six big-league seasons. He hit .331 in his rookie showing of 2011 (158 plate appearances) before hitting .301, .292, .260, .260 and most recently, .247. This has been paired with homer totals of 11, 13, 17, 21 and 22 over the last five seasons, though he hadn’t ever seen an uptick in metrics across the board like this before. He hadn’t ever seen a strikeout rate increase as dramatic either, though (14.8% to 21.8%). Look for the power to play up yet again in 2017 as his swing continues to profile in a more “slugger” fashion. It’d be ideal if Kauffman Stadium was more hitter-friendly and if the Royals had a little more to offer in the counting stats, but 60 runs and RBIs should join his 20+ homers to make for solid value.

Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays - OF

Kiermaier flashed his double-digit pop with 20-steal potential in 2015 before really becoming a more extreme power hitter in ’16 with an above-average fly-ball rate with a much healthier hard-hit rate. The pull rate holding near 50% with the fly balls should point to how a guy with serious wheels can only muster a .246 average (.278 BABIP). Think of how Billy Hamilton suffered by hitting too many flies instead of peppering grounders and letting his legs help him out. The difference here is that Kiermaier actually houses the power to leave the yard with some regularity. If he holds onto most of these gains then he could hit 15-18 homers with 25-30 steals, with potential for a solid run total if he gets a piece of the leadoff-platoon pie.

Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – 2B

Kipnis had gone through two disappointing seasons in a row with a power-zapped 2014-15 that saw him only hit 15 homers in 1,196 plate PAs (compared to 17 in 2013 – 658 PAs). While he wasn’t bad in 2015 – he hit a career-high .303 – it was just underwhelming after a promising upward trajectory was cut down by an injury-laden age-27 season. Kipnis then partied like it was 2013 last season, as nearly all of his metrics read similarly to that superb season (though he only stole 15 bases in ’16 compared to 30 in ’13). After posting HR/FB rates of 4.8% and 6.9%, he brought that mark up to 13.1% (12.4% in ’13). While we need him to rebound from this early-season injury, Kipnis should still have the profile of a guy who can hit 18 homers and swipe double-digit bags with a healthy average and counting stats.

Brad Miller, Tampa Bay Rays – 1B/SS

Miller clearly put power on the forefront of his to-do list in the middle of 2016 after a rough first two months of the season, as the 27-year-old went on to blast 25 homers over the final four months of ’16. Interestingly, his batted-ball rates really didn’t fluctuate that much between those unfortunate first two months and the final four outside of a low 29.2% fly-ball rate in May (when he hit for better average, .291). His HR/FB rate shot up from around 15% to 26.9% in July and 33.3% in August before coming back down to 16.7% in September/October. Let’s assume the mid-to-high teens are his usual, with spikes possible. His fantasy owners in daily formats should be mindful of his lesser power against lefties, as he only slugged .373 against them (.509 vs. RHP) thanks to a 30.8% hard-hit rate (36.1% vs. RHP).

Christian Yelich, Miami Marlins - OF

Yelich has long been known for his plus speed/average and groundball ways, but had always teased us with such a good hitting tool that he could feasibly become a five-category contributor if he could just stop trying to kill groundhogs at the dish. 2016 saw him finally flip the switch, as these modest gains in all three power-hitting metrics aligned to yield a lofty 23.6% HR/FB rate (up from 12.5%) that saw him hit 21 homers after mashing only seven in ’15. His ground-ball rate had so much to give that he still turned in a 56.5% mark and sustained a high .356 BABIP – allowing him to keep his high average (.298) – but with all of these things coming together, it just meant that those increased fly balls became that much more valuable as the young outfielder vaulted his way into the top-10 OF conversation.

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Robert Williams III

Active on Monday Night
Kris Murray

Out on Monday
Pelle Larsson

Exits With Ankle Injury Monday
Josh Giddey

to Miss Rest of Monday's Action
Coby White

Ruled Out for Rest Of Monday's Game
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Won't Return Monday
Brandon Williams

Available Monday Night
Anthony Davis

Out Against Trail Blazers
Coby White

Questionable to Return Monday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Suffers Apperant Knee Injury Monday
Miles Bridges

Injures Ankle Monday
Keyonte George

May Exit the Lineup Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Considered Questionable Tuesday
De'Aaron Fox

Ready to Rock Monday
Zion Williamson

Returns to Starting Lineup Monday
Ajay Mitchell

Active Against Hawks
Ousmane Dieng

Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng Remain Out Monday
Isaiah Joe

Available for Monday's Action
Zach Collins

Sidelined Monday
Tyler Kolek

Active Against Pelicans
Davante Adams

Officially Out on Monday Night
Miles McBride

Cleared to Return Monday
Drake London

Active Against Rams
Jake DeBrusk

to Miss Monday's Game as Healthy Scratch
Shane Pinto

Available Monday
Pius Suter

to Miss at Least Four Weeks
Pyotr Kochetkov

Likely Done for the Season
Josh Morrissey

Expected to Play Monday
Karel Vejmelka

Moved to Injured Reserve
Rasmus Dahlin

Expected to Rejoin Sabres Lineup Monday
Yegor Chinakhov

Penguins Acquire Yegor Chinakhov From Blue Jackets
Justin Herbert

Won't Face Broncos in Week 18
Marcus Mariota

Considered "a Stretch" to Play in Week 18
Geno Smith

Dealing With Significant Ankle Injury
Dak Prescott

Will Play in Week 18
Lamar Jackson

Week 18 Status "to be Determined"
Joe Mixon

Won't Return This Season
T.J. Watt

a Long Shot to Play in Week 18?
CFB

Penn State Working to Hire D'Anton Lynn as Next Defensive Coordinator
Joe Burrow

Will Play in Week 18 Against the Browns
CFB

Omar Cooper Expected to be Full-Go for Rose Bowl
CFB

Marcus Freeman Staying with Notre Dame for 2026 Season
CFB

Star Wideout Cam Coleman Entering Transfer Portal
Luther Burden III

Set to Undergo Additional Testing on Quad Injury
Kirill Marchenko

Scores Twice in Sunday's Win
Justin Brazeau

Pots First Career Hat Trick Sunday
Juraj Slafkovsky

Collects Season-High Three Points in Sunday's Loss
Eeli Tolvanen

Continues Scoring Surge With Three-Point Effort
Jack Eichel

to Remain Out Monday
Adam Fox

Nearing Return, Considered Day-to-Day
Josh Morrissey

Considered Day-to-Day After Missing Practice
D'Andre Swift

Finds End Zone Twice in Sunday Night Loss
Luther Burden III

Posts Season-High 138 Yards, Touchdown in Loss
Christian McCaffrey

Racks Up 181 Total Yards, Touchdown in Win Over Bears
Brock Purdy

Delivers Second Straight Five-Touchdown Performance
Parker Washington

Leads Jaguars in Targets, Receptions, and Receiving Yards
Wan'Dale Robinson

Posts Season-High 11 Receptions in Week 17
Josh Allen

Seen Limping From X-Ray Room, Says Foot Injury Didn't Affect Him
Geno Smith

Diagnosed With High-Ankle Sprain
Trey McBride

Sets All-Time Tight End Receptions Record
Geno Smith

Exits Early With Ankle Injury
Matthew Tkachuk

Returns to Practice
Linus Ullmark

Takes Leave of Absence
Travis Sanheim

Good to Go Against Kraken
Nick Foligno

Set to Return Sunday
William Nylander

Out Against Red Wings
Jared McCann

Available Sunday
CFB

Jay Hill Expected to be Next Michigan Defensive Coordinator
CFB

Michigan Targeting Kyle Whittingham as Next Head Coach
CFB

Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP