X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Top NFL Betting Expert Picks for Week 1 (9/8/19)

Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for 9/8/19. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.

The 2019 NFL season is finally upon us and this might be one of the most hyped up seasons in recent memory! Yes, we say that every year, but it's true!

We're here to dive into the numbers, teams, and picks setup for the NFL this week. There is nothing quite like waking up on Sunday morning, checking out the lines, and throwing down some fun money to make watching those games a little more enjoyable.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Here’s the motto we’ll take through the year: Bet. Sweat. Keep the wallet wet. 

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Atlanta at Minnesota (-4)

O/U: 48

Atlanta returns one of the league's most electric offenses from a season ago, scoring 25.9 points per game, which ranked ninth in the NFL. While Matt Ryan is back after throwing for 4,924 yards and 35 touchdowns, he also gets a healthy Devonta Freeman back, who only appeared in two games last year due to a groin injury. We can't forget about Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mohamed Sanu who form one of the most electric receiving corps in football. However, the team fired offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and brought back Dirk Koetter, who was the OC in Atlanta from 2012-14. Times have changed and so have NFL offenses, so there's no telling what this team may show in Week 1. Betting wise, Atlanta was terrible last year when considered underdogs on the road, going 1-4 against the spread in 2018. Even worse, they were 2-8 ATS in games against non-divisional opponents. 

Minnesota is a pretty similar team to last year, except their expectations are now considerably high with the hopes that Dalvin Cook will be healthy for the entire season. Kirk Cousins is one of the most underrated signal callers in football and the weapons at his disposal are top tier in the league. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are the perfect floor and upside combo. Add in a top three defense, and this Vikings team is a contender in the NFC. When favored at home last year, the Vikings were actually one of the best teams in football at covering the spread, going 4-2-1.  Over the last two season, they are also 10-6-1 ATS when playing in Minnesota.

There's been some under the radar Twitter rumblings that Julio Jones may sit out the first week if he can't get a contract extension done before the game. If that happens then this game will be chalk on Minnesota. However, even before that situation unfolds, the Vikings are the way to roll here. This Vikings Defense is real, and Atlanta switching offensive coordinators will slow them down enough to hold them back in Week 1.

Pick: Minnesota -4

 

Cincinnati at Seattle (-9.5)

O/U: 44

Cincinnati finally got rid of Marvin Lewis and brought in Sean McVay disciple Zac Taylor. However, this team has a lot of work to do before they return to relevance in the AFC. Andy Dalton isn’t a good quarterback, and while he has two of the top playmakers in the AFC North in AJ Green and Joe Mixon, this team is in shambles right now. Green is out for at least the first two games, and while Mixon is healthy, the Bengals offensive line lost first-round pick, tackle Jonah Williams for the year. Under Jones, the Bengals were 6-2 ATS on the road last season.

Seattle is one of the most difficult places to play in the NFL. Fortunately for the Seahawks, they get to start the 2019 season at home. Russell Wilson is back after throwing for a career-high 35 touchdowns in 2018, even after attempting just 427 passes, his lowest total since 2013.  His efficiency was complemented by the second-highest rushing attempts per game (32.8) as a team. Chris Carson is one of the most underrated backs in football and don’t forget they have former first-round pick Rashaad Penny spelling him. Expect more of the same in 2019, especially this week when they face the Bengals who had the fourth worst rushing defense last year. Seattle’s defense just got an enormous upgrade over the weekend when they traded for Jadeveon Clowney to help Ziggy Ansah bolster the defensive line. I fully expect this front seven to attack Dalton and force him to make uncomfortable throws.

Since Pete Carroll took over in Seattle in 2010, Seattle has gone 47-29-2 ATS at home and 33-22-2 while being favored at home. Don’t overthink this one, even with a near double-digit spread. Seattle is tough to beat at home, and evidence shows they’re pretty good at covering too.

Pick: Seattle -9.5

 

New York Giants at Dallas (-7)

O/U: 45.5

The Giants constantly found themselves playing from behind last season, mainly because their defense allowed almost 26 points per game. They’ve since improved over the offseason and will hopefully not force the offense to constantly throw the ball by the second quarter. On offense, Saquon Barkley is arguably the best player in the NFL but aside from Evan Engram, the supporting cast around him is shoddy at best. Eli Manning is a terrible quarterback who shouldn’t still be starting games for an NFL franchise, but here we are. With Odell Beckham Jr. gone, the tables might be turning this year, and the offense will struggle to put up points, mainly because teams will stack the box against Barkley.

The Cowboys has been in the news a lot over the past month, strictly because Ezekiel Elliott wasn’t around town. He’s back (thankfully) but how much do we actually expect Dallas to throw him out there? Probably a lot to be honest, but expecting him to be his usual self after not donning pads until earlier this week. Dak Prescott is an overrated quarterback because of his ability to run, but there’s no doubt he was better last year when Amari Cooper came to town. However, with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore in town, expect Prescott to be given more chances to air it out, which could back fire against an improved Giants secondary.

This is one of the most storied rivalries in football but when they play each other for the first time each season, they tend to feel each other out and not spotlight too many of their big-time plays. Over the past three seasons, the most points scored in their first meeting is 39 and that was back in 2016. Combine the improved Giants Defense with the Cowboys’ best player just suiting up earlier this week, I wouldn’t expect a shootout in Jerry World.

Pick: Under 45.5

More Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sebastian Walcott

Smacks Second Home Run Of 2025
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kenley Jansen

Records His Sixth Save Of The Season
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Miguel Vargas

Homers Against The Twins On Thursday
Hunter Goodman

Delivers In Game 1 On Thursday With Two Hits
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Christopher Morel

Home Run Seals Victory For Rays
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Zach Neto

Hits Go-Ahead Home Run On Thursday
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Tallies Three Hits In Win Against Arizona
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Pete Fairbanks

Picks Up Fourth Save On Thursday
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Picks Up Save On Thursday
Corbin Burnes

Picks Up Eight Strikeouts In Thursday's Start
MacKenzie Gore

Strikes Out Eight In Loss On Thursday
Cade Povich

Picks Up Win On Thursday
Bobby Witt Jr.

Scores Three Runs, Steals A Base On Thursday
Alex Bregman

Homers In Loss To Seattle
Mike Yastrzemski

Homers, Drives In Two On Thursday
Salvador Perez

Notches Four Doubles, Four RBI In Thursday's Doubleheader
Jordan Beck

Homers Three Times On Thursday
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Dalton Rushing

Homers In Four-Hit Game
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Max Muncy

With A Pair Of Doubles Back At Triple-A
Michael Lorenzen

Tosses Quality Start
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
A.J. Puk

Likely To Miss Multiple Months
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall

Matthew Golden Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
NFL

Texans Trade The 25th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Giants

Omarion Hampton Taken No. 22 Overall By Chargers
Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh Selects Derrick Harmon At No. 21 Overall
Denver Broncos

Broncos Build Secondary By Selecting Jahdae Barron At No. 20

Buccaneers Add Emeka Egbuka At No. 19
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF