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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Conference Championship Week

Steve Janik's NFL betting picks for the Conference Championship Round. He analyzes NFL Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.

San Francisco and Minnesota made me a little nervous early, scoring 24 combined points in the first half, but things slowed down in the second and the under hit comfortably. Baltimore just totally fell apart, and were stunned by the Titans, after being the top seed in the AFC. Green Bay teetered on blowing their lead, and thanks to a generous first down by the refs, they held on and covered the 4.5 point spread.

We have just two weeks of football left, which puts some pressure on handicappers to help those looking for insight to finish the season strong. We push on and look at recent trends, along with individual player playoff history to drive our research and make the best informed decisions possible.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. Good luck!

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Green Bay at San Francisco (-7.5)

O/U: 46.5 

As winners of their last six, Green Bay is peaking at the absolute right time. Aaron Rodgers and company have averaged 353 yards per game in that stretch, and while they've only scored 25 or more twice, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are weapons every remaining team would beg to have. An interesting split stat is that Rodgers is 1-2 in Conference Championship games with a 4/5 TD/Int. Defensively, the Packers have been stout, allowing more than 265 yards of offense just once over the six-game win streak, but they've been very streaky all season, so at any moment they could fold. The 49ers don't just love to run the ball, they're also very good at it, rushing for 143ypg over the last seven, so Green Bay will need to focus on stopping the run over anything.

San Francisco took care of business in their first playoff game since 2013, defeating Minnesota 27-10. Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't needed for much, throwing for just 122 yards, with a touchdown and interception in his first career playoff game. Like Kyle Shanahan has done all season, the 49ers grounded and pounded their way to 186 yards and two scores and the Vikings had no match. The Packers Defense can easily be run on, but they have had their moments of being an elite run defense this year. On the 49ers defensive side, they brought their top effort post bye week. Richard Sherman, Nick Bosa, and the rest of the Niners defense are able to take over a game in a handful of plays, but the Packers will certainly be a fair match.

After wins this season, Green Bay has seen the total go under eight times, while San Francisco has had the total go under seven times. Rodgers doesn't have a great Conference Championship portfolio but their weapons are arguably the best of the remaining team. The 49ers Defense is the best remaining unit on that side of the ball, which gives them a big boost, on top of their love of running the ball. I see a close, low-scoring affair on tap in the NFC Championship game.

Pick: Green Bay +7.5 and Under 46.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City (-7.5)

O/U: 52 

Tennessee continues to roll through the playoffs, while shocking some of the top NFL fan bases with upset wins over the Patriots and the top-seeded Ravens. Derrick Henry might on one the best stretches of football in the last 20 years; he's rushed for over 100 yards in seven of the last eight games, which includes six games with 149 yards or more. While Ryan Tannehill was an enormous part of the Titans getting into the playoffs, he's been equally unneeded over the last two games, throwing for just 160 yards on 15 completions with three touchdowns and an interception. Defensively, Tennessee has been pretty vulnerable to giving up yards, but keeping points off the board. This is evidenced by the 13 points allowed per game and 379 ypg over the last three contests.

The Chiefs are coming in fresh off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history; overcoming an early 24-point deficit, Kansas City showed that they're for real by dropping 41 unanswered points. Patrick Mahomes' five touchdown passes are what most expected out of the third-year signal caller this season, which hints that he's getting hot at the perfect time. His favorite target was Travis Kelce, to the tune of of 134 yards and three touchdowns, so if the Chiefs can get Tyreek Hill going, this offense will be deadly at home. The Chiefs Defense is easily the weakest of the remaining teams, and this is the same defense that gave up 188 rushing yards to Derrick Henry in Week 10. If they're unable to contain him, this could have the similar making of last week's game.

Both of these offenses are dangerous in their own ways, while their defenses have their weaknesses. Compared to the NFC Championship game, this matchup has the makings of a shootout. Early and often, the Titans might let Tannehill throw it around a little more than normal, which will catch KC off guard. Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense will want to prove that their 41-point outburst wasn't a fluke, so they should come out, guns blazing.

Pick: 1st Half Over 25.5

More Football Analysis




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zach Charbonnet

Needs Knee Surgery, Out for Rest of Playoffs
Tennessee Titans

Mike McCarthy a Finalist for Titans Head-Coaching Job?
Colston Loveland

Suffers Concussion in Divisional Round Loss
Kyren Williams

Scores Two Touchdowns in Divisional Round Win
Buffalo Bills

Bills Fire Head Coach Sean McDermott
De'Anthony Melton

Out for Front End of Back-to-Back
Tom Wilson

May Return Monday
Zaccharie Risacher

to Miss Another Game vs. Bucks
Henri Jokiharju

Moved to Non-Roster List
Daniel Gafford

Remains Out Monday Against New York
P.J. Washington

Out Again vs. Knicks
Frank Nazar

Returns to Practice
Oskar Sundqvist

Suffers Skate Cut Sunday
Sam Merrill

Still Out vs. Thunder
Kasperi Kapanen

Considered Day-to-Day
Jalen Williams

Ruled Out Monday with Hamstring Strain
Zach Whitecloud

Joins Flames
Isaiah Hartenstein

Ruled Out Again vs. Cavaliers
Rasmus Andersson

Moves to Vegas
Kristaps Porzingis

to Miss Sixth Straight Game on Monday
Aaron Nesmith

Bennedict Mathurin Out Again, Aaron Nesmith Available vs. 76ers
Lauri Markkanen

Sidelined for Fourth Straight Game
Steven Adams

Leaves Game with Sprained Ankle
Collin Murray-Boyles

Exits Early with Thumb Injury
Aaron Gordon

Won't Suit up on Sunday
Moussa Diabaté

Moussa Diabate Available to Play on Sunday
Jalen Green

Holds Questionable Tag for Monday
Tyler Herro

Not Traveling with Team
Jaxson Hayes

Returning on Sunday
Deandre Ayton

Active on Sunday
Patrick Williams

Won't Face the Nets
Tari Eason

to Miss Fifth Straight Game
Josh Giddey

Ruled Out on Sunday
Carson Soucy

Expected Back on Monday
Teuvo Teravainen

to Remain Out Monday
Matthew Tkachuk

"Close" to Season Debut
Rodrigo Abols

Flyers Place Rodrigo Abols on Injured Reserve
Alex Lyon

Practices on Sunday
Rhamondre Stevenson

Returns in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round Game
Josh Norris

Out Week-to-Week
Dylan Holloway

Set to Return Sunday
Ha-Seong Kim

has Finger Surgery, Out 4-5 Months
Rhamondre Stevenson

Questionable to Return on Sunday With Eye Injury
Woody Marks

Returns Following Brief Exit on Sunday
Dalton Schultz

Won't Return in Sunday's AFC Divisional Round Game
Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Open to Aaron Rodgers Returning in 2026?
Jarrett Stidham

to Start AFC Championship Game
Zach Charbonnet

Questionable to Return Against 49ers
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Hiring Kevin Stefanski as Head Coach
Bo Nix

Suffers Broken Bone in Ankle, Done for Playoffs
Green Bay Packers

Packers Sign Head Coach Matt LaFleur to Multi-Year Extension
Ricky Pearsall

Active for Divisional Round
Sam Darnold

Officially Active for Saturday's Divisional Round Game vs. 49ers
William Carrier

Misses Fourth Consecutive Game
Shayne Gostisbehere

Remains Out Saturday
Jake Evans

Available Saturday
Teuvo Teravainen

Misses Second Straight Game
William Nylander

Out Against Jets
Pat Bryant

Won't Return on Saturday, Ruled Out with a Concussion
Tom Wilson

Could Be an Option Saturday
Leo Carlsson

Out for 3-5 Weeks After Thigh Procedure
New York Giants

John Harbaugh, Giants Finalize Five-Year Deal
Aaron Rodgers

Not Expected to Return to Steelers in 2026
Atlanta Falcons

Kevin Stefanski the Favorite for Falcons Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Darian Mensah Entering Transfer Portal
J.T. Realmuto

Signs Three-Year Deal to Return to Phillies
Bo Bichette

Agrees to Three-Year Contract With Mets
CFB

Weber State Signs former Ohio State, Cal Quarterback Devin Brown
Bo Bichette

Phillies the "Overwhelming" Favorite to Sign Bo Bichette
Josh Lowe

Angels Acquire Josh Lowe in Three-Team Trade
Kyle Tucker

Signs Four-Year Contract With Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw

to Pitch for Team USA in World Baseball Classic
CFB

Auburn, Ohio State the Lead Suitors for Kyle Parker
CFB

Oregon QB Transfer Bryson Beaver Linked to Georgia, Kentucky
CFB

Jake Merklinger Commits to UConn
Ben Griffin

Looks To Stay Hot In 2026
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Agrees to Five-Year Deal With Red Sox
CFB

Dante Moore Not Entering 2026 NFL Draft, Will Return to Oregon
CFB

FBS Coaches Unanimously Vote to Expand Redshirt Eligibility to Nine Games
CFB

Ohio State Transfer Mylan Graham Signs with Notre Dame
CFB

Caden Durham Withdraws from Transfer Portal, Will Stay at LSU
Jordan Spieth

Perhaps the Most Intriguing Player at Sony Open
Aaron Rai

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Collin Morikawa

Isn't The Safe Play He Used to Be Ahead of Sony Open
Kurt Kitayama

Needs His Putting to Turn Around For Success at Year's First Event
Ryan Weathers

Yankees Add Rotation Depth, Acquire Ryan Weathers in Four-Player Deal

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