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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/7/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, June 7th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on tonight's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday, June 7th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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New York Yankees (-135) @ Cleveland Indians
O/U: 9
I was expecting the total to come in a lot lower than this, but I will be very interested in this number. Domingo German has been the bright spot in the Yankees rotation this season, allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his twelve starts. Zach Plesac has also looked lights out in his first two career starts, allowing two earned runs in 12 innings of work. The under is 17-14-1 in Indians home games this season, one trend going against us here is the Yankees 21-6-1 over record on the road. This number is too much of an anomaly when they have been terrible at hitting the over at hitter-friendly Yankee stadium, so I would expect this number to start trending back towards a .500 record.
Once the starting pitchers come out of the game, we have two of the top five bullpens in ERA in the Majors. The Indians bullpen is first with a 3.28 ERA, while the Yankees bullpen is fifth with a 3.75 ERA. I would expect this series to be more low-scoring than the oddsmakers would have you believe.
My Pick: Under 9
Colorado Rockies @ New York Mets (-205)
O/U: 7.5
Antonio Senzatela pitching in a game with a total of 7.5 is absolute craziness, and I can't let the opportunity pass without taking it no matter how good he has pitched his last couple of games. Jacob deGrom also hasn't been pitching at his Cy Young winning pace from last year, so they are giving him a bit too much credit with this total.
The total has eclipsed 7.5 in seven of Degrom's twelve starts this season, while it has gone over 7.5 in seven of Senzatela's ten starts. Degrom is also a worse pitcher at home this season, coming in with a 4.18 ERA in five starts.
My Pick: Over 7.5
St.Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (-128)
O/U: 7
Miles Mikolas and Cole Hamels faced off in a pitching duel five days ago, with the Cardinals pulling out a 2-1 win in the end. After being swept by the Cardinals in last week's series in St.Louis, the Cubs return home with their 21-11 record at Wrigley Field looking to avenge last weeks losses to their rival. While Mikolas looked good in the last game, he had lost three straight games before the no-decision against the Cubs.
I can't see a situation where the Cardinals win four in a row against the Cubs in this short period, so I will be backing the Cubs in the series opener.
My Pick: Cubs (-128)
Los Angeles Dodgers (-235) @ San Francisco Giants
O/U: 7.5
There's another game here where Drew Pomeranz and his 19.16 ERA in May shouldn't be anywhere near a 7.5 total. I have slightly-less confidence in this pick, due to Kershaw being the opposing pitcher, and playing in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. However, Kershaw had a 4.22 ERA in May, and the total has gone over 7.5 in five of his nine starts this season. In three of the starts, the final score was 4-3, which shows just how close the total was to being over 7.5 in three more of those starts.
In two of three home starts in May, Pomeranz allowed 7 and 8 runs, if that trend continues tonight the Dodgers could cover the over by themselves, and they do have the hitting talent to do it.
My Pick: Over 7.5
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-126)
O/U: 10
It's a big series here in terms of the AL East race, with the Rays having the ability to put the Red Sox far into their rearview mirrors. They have a good opportunity, coming into the series with a 20-9 record on the road this season. The Red Sox have been on a roll, winning four in a row, but winning a getaway game against the Yankees after dropping the first two games and sweeping the Royals is far from something that worries me.
Something that should worry the Red Sox is the play of Rick Porcello, who comes into this game with a 4-5 record and 4.76 ERA, after allowing five earned runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Yankees in his last outing. Another worry would be the play of Yonny Chirinos, recording a 2.19 ERA in May. He had a rough outing in his last appearance against the Twins, but as I have said before the Twins have been raking against everyone, so I usually take those games with a grain of salt.
My Pick: Rays (+100)
Nate's YTD picks: 25-15-1
