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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 6/4/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Tuesday, June 4th edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on tonight's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Tuesday, June 4th. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Atlanta Braves (-167) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 9
PNC Park has been a hitter's paradise so far this season, with the over hitting in 18 of 28 games. Pirates games have also seen runs happening at an extreme rate over their past ten games, with the over hitting eight times. The Braves also have an above .500 record on the over in their past ten games, going 6-3-1.
While the runs have been plentiful at PNC Park, they have been happening on the wrong side for the Pirates. They have an abysmal 11-17 record at home this season, while the Braves are fairing better on the road, with a 16-12 record. An interesting stat for the Pirates is that every loss they have had at home since April has come by more than one run, so if you like the Braves tonight, it is worth sprinkling the runline instead of just the moneyline.
My Pick: Over 9 and Braves -1.5
Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs (-220)
O/U: 10.5
I searched for a reason why this number was so high, but I failed to find anything substantial enough to warrant leaving this play off the list. The Rockies are 5-5 on overs in their past ten games, while the Cubs are 6-3-1, albeit at lower totals. The Cubs are 14-14-1 at home this year on overs, and not surprisingly, the Rockies are only 13-13-1 on the road compared to a better record at Coors Field.
Kyle Hendricks alone should be enough to take the under here, as he has a 1.29 ERA in five starts at Wrigley Field this season. Jeff Hoffman has a 7.20 ERA, but all three starts were at Coors Field, so we can expect a lower expected ERA when he is on the road. One problem I do have is the wind blowing out to the center field bleachers, but Hoffman and Hendricks fly ball percentages aren't high enough for me to be too concerned.
My Pick: Under 10.5
Los Angeles Dodgers (-215) @ Arizona Diamondbacks
O/U: 9.5
After a run of hitting the over, the Dodgers have gone under in four of their last five games. For our purposes, the fifth game was a push on 9, so technically they have gone under 9.5 in five straight games. They send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound tonight, who has pitched a scoreless outing in four of his last five starts, giving him an ERA of 1.48 for the season.
The Diamondbacks over is 4-5-1 in their last ten games, and they have a record of 11-14-3 at home so far this season. They send Taylor Clarke to the mound, who only allowed four runs over his first three starts. His last start at Coors Field drove his ERA up to 4.67, but I think he can go back to his form before the Coors game. Even if the Dodgers do get to Clarke here in this game, Ryu has been pitching well enough that I feel we have plenty of room for error to hit the under.
My Pick: Under 9.5
New York Yankees (-195) @ Toronto Blue Jays
O/U: 9
The Yankees should destroy the Blue Jays easily here, as the Jays have shown just how much of a fluke their decent start to the season had been. The Blue Jays are 1-9 over their past ten games and 9-18 at home. The Yankees are 7-3 over their past ten games and 17-8 on the road. If the Yankees had swept the Red Sox this weekend, I would have been wearier of this pick as it could be a letdown spot, but a tough loss on Sunday night should be an even bigger motivation for this game. They also haven't lost two games in a row since May 1st, and I can't see them changing that trend against the Blue Jays.
My Pick: Yankees (-195) and Yankees -1.5
Nate's YTD: 21-13-1
