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Nate Duffett's MLB betting picks for 5/31/19. He analyzes Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets for today's MLB slate including money-lines, spreads and totals.
Welcome to the Friday, May 31st edition of Rotoballer's MLB Betting Picks. I will be serving up some of my top options on tonight's 15 game slate.
In this article, we will dive into the numbers and pick out my top recommended betting picks for today's slate. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @Roto_Nate if you have any questions.
So without any further delay, below are my picks for Friday, May 31st. Be sure to also check out all the MLB Vegas Odds and MLB Park Factors for today's slate. Good luck!
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Boston Red Sox (-152) @ New York Yankees
O/U: 9.5
I expect it to be a low-scoring affair in the first game of the series tonight at Yankee Stadium. Sale has always performed well against the Yankees. He is 7-5 with a 1.93 ERA in 20 appearances against New York, including the postseason. The Yankees are also in the bottom-third of the league in hitting against left-handed pitching.
The Red Sox as a team are only batting .213 against J.A. Happ in their careers, and he already had a quality start against them this year where he only allowed three earned runs over 6 1/3 innings. In two games between these teams at Yankee stadium, the total came in below 9.5 on both occasions. In a normally hitter-friendly ballpark, the over is only 10-20 this season at Yankee Stadium.
My Pick: Under 9.5
Toronto Blue Jays @ Colorado Rockies (-265)
O/U: 11.5
It's one of those pitching matchups tonight where the total could go up by a run or two, and I still might consider hammering the over. Edwin Jackson has a 9.00 ERA on the season and allowed seven earned runs and three home runs in his last start. In two of his three starts this season, the total number of runs has exceeded 11.5 by a significant margin. German Marquez is a more talented pitcher, but he struggles in his home ballpark, recording a 5.40 ERA at home, while only boasting a 2.08 ERA on the road. The over is 17-10 in Coors Field games this season, while the Blue Jays have hit the over in seven of their last ten games.
My Pick: Over 11.5
Washington Nationals (-116) @ Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 9
We are seeing a lot of the public's money coming in on the Over for this matchup, but I will be looking to take advantage and go the opposite way here. Patrick Corbin has been having a great first year with the Nationals, coming in with a 2.85 ERA, failing to allow more than four runs in a start since April. Tyler Mahle has a higher ERA, but the numbers will show that he has also had a good month of May, despite a tough start in his last game against the Cubs where he allowed three home runs. I am willing to throw this game out as the wind was blowing out the seats at Wrigley, which is a tough situation for pitchers.
They also square off in a pitcher-friendly ballpark where the over is only 12-15 so far this season. An interesting stat to watch with this total, the total has exceeded nine in only two of Mahle's ten starts. While Corbin has kept the total below nine in four straight starts, and eight of his eleven on the season.
My Pick: Under 9
Chicago Cubs @ St.Louis Cardinals (-123)
O/U: 9
I'll take the Cubs with underdog odds every time in this matchup since, in my opinion, they are far from an underdog. Yu Darvish has shown glimpses of his old self, especially on the road where he has only allowed eight earned runs over four starts. He has no decisions in five straight games, but the Cubs have managed to win three of those games.
Miles Mikolas has struggled at home, allowing 14 earned runs over six starts, and has lost three straight games. The Cubs are a respectable 13-13 on the road, and I expect them to bring that record above .500 after tonight's game.
My Pick: Cubs (+103)
Cleveland Indians (-172) @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9.5
The value in the White Sox is too high to not spark my interest. The Indians are 3-7 over their last ten games and have a 13-14 record on the road this season. While the White Sox are 6-4 over their last ten games and have a 15-13 record at home. Trevor Bauer has been prone to blowups this season, and in his lone start against the White Sox, he had one of those games where he allowed seven earned runs.
I can see the Indians continuing their struggles in this game, so I will ride with the White Sox four-game winning streak at these odds.
My Pick: White Sox (+147)
