X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Top Gainers in Fly Ball Rate - What to Expect in 2017

RotoBaller's Nick Mariano analyzes players who saw big spikes in their flyball rate in 2016 with an eye toward increasing fantasy value in 2017.

The baseball universe is really coming into its own when it comes to advanced data metrics that we can parse through, with hard-hit rates, exit velocities, spray charts and batted-ball outcomes all becoming accessible tools to throw in the toolkit before we go digging for answers.

Today's piece continues the series where we explore some notable gainers in categories that are largely associated with power. We've looked at hard-hit rate, and now we'll check in with fly-ball rates before investigating those who increased their pull rates. Then we'll tie it all together with a nice little piece at the end combining all three. Some player profiles will briefly bring in the other metrics for context, but there's always more to explore.

We're including players here that have accrued at least 200 PAs in both 2015 and 2016 to have something actionable to utilize, but we'll omit names that are only relevant in 50-team leagues in order to address viable options.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Top Fly-Ball Rate Gainers in 2016

Player Name 2016 FB% 2015 FB% Difference
James McCann 40.60% 27.00% 13.60%
Jorge Soler 43.30% 29.80% 13.50%
Corey Dickerson 45.00% 32.10% 12.90%
Enrique Hernandez 42.10% 30.40% 11.70%
Robinson Cano 36.10% 25.30% 10.80%
Anthony Rendon 43.80% 33.30% 10.50%
Jason Heyward 33.30% 23.50% 9.80%
Salvador Perez 47.10% 37.40% 9.70%
Jung Ho Kang 37.30% 27.60% 9.70%
Brett Lawrie 42.40% 32.70% 9.70%
Pedro Alvarez 36.40% 26.90% 9.50%
Jonathan Lucroy 38.70% 29.40% 9.30%
Jason Kipnis 37.40% 28.10% 9.30%
Xander Bogaerts 34.90% 25.80% 9.10%
Justin Smoak 42.20% 33.60% 8.60%
Kevin Kiermaier 37.60% 29.30% 8.30%
Yasmany Tomas 31.40% 23.20% 8.20%
Brandon Belt 46.00% 37.90% 8.10%
Nick Markakis 35.10% 27.00% 8.10%
Wilmer Flores 45.00% 37.10% 7.90%

 

 

What to Expect From These Fly-Ball Rate Gainers?

Jorge Soler +13.5%

Soler had issues with contact in 2015 (30% strikeout rate) but managed to post a decent .262 average thanks to a meaty 27.8% line-drive rate. However, this meant fewer fly balls, as he only turned in a 29.8% fly-ball mark en route to 10 homers in 404 plate appearances. He turned up the power in 2016 with a sweet 43.3% FB rate that yielded 12 homers in only 264 PAs. Yup, two additional homers in 140 fewer PAs. That’s what fly balls do! Of course, it came with an average drop to .238 with the same troubling strikeout rate (25%). I can’t back Soler as a great buy in ’17, especially considering he’s currently 5-for-41 in Spring Training for KC, but the power is certainly there.

Corey Dickerson +12.9%

Dickerson’s contact rate plummeted in Tampa Bay, which led to a 59-point drop in average, but his monstrous 45% FB rate allowed him to smack 24 homers. He should have some more firepower in the tank assuming he’s now a bit more comfortable in the AL and doesn’t have to fight through a thumb sprain, let alone that he lost 25 pounds. I’m not one for the “best shape of his life” narratives, but quantifiable measures like that are solid. Hopefully one doesn’t have to play him against southpaws – he has a career 2.02 GB/FB rate against them versus a 0.83 mark against righties that has yielded only six homers in 310 PAs (57 HRs in 1163 PAs against RHP).

Robinson Cano +10.8%

This was Cano’s biggest jump in metrics between 2015 and 2016, as his hard-hit and pull rates didn’t fluctuate by more than 3%. Hitting a ton of fly balls is one to way to nearly double your home run total, as he shot up to 39 from 21 despite only logging 39 additional PAs. 2016’s total was nearly triple his mark from 2014, as the keystone stud finally made good on his huge deal from Seattle. We hadn’t seen Cano post a fly ball rate north of 30% in any of his prior four seasons, but 2016 was closest to his wonderful 2010 in the Bronx (36.5% FB rate). Yes, Cano has shown this before, but it’d still be a leap to expect a replication of this in 2017 – even if we can feel safer about him not slipping to 2014/15 levels now.

Anthony Rendon +10.5%

Rendon bounced back in a big way in 2016 despite it not feeling supremely flashy. His 20 homers and 12 steals came with very healthy counting stats and a .270 average. The fact that he boosted flies by double digits while maintaining a similar line-drive rate meant it came at the expense of grounders, yet his BABIP still held close to his career .311 rate (.304). Without any crazy HR/FB spike and an improved strikeout rate (-1.6%), Rendon showed a lot of encouraging signs as he now enters his prime age-27 season. With durability woes shadowing him, he has now played in at least 153 games in two of his past three seasons and should be a nice 90/20/80/10/.270 play yet again in 2017.

Jason Heyward +9.8%

Here’s a cautionary tale of just assuming that fly balls result in good things, or even line drives. While Heyward – who averaged roughly 35% on his fly-ball rate between 2011-14 – brought his horrible 23.5% rate from 2015 back up to 33.3%, he simply made terrible contact. His 27.1% soft-contact rate was atrocious and led the league for qualified hitters, edging out feared hitter Jose Iglesias by 0.6%. And even in his gross 2015, he still only posted an average exit velocity over 0.5 MPH below league average in three out of the 28 recorded weeks. That number soared to 16 in 2016. He was consistently awful when generating contact, let alone whiffing entirely, so I’m not buying here.

Salvador Perez +9.7%

Remember when Salvy came up and was nearly a .300 hitter with roughly 12 homers? Neither do I! The soon-to-be 27-year-old backstop became one of baseball’s most extreme fly-ball hitters, with his 47.1% rate coming in fourth place out of qualified hitters between Brian Dozier and Evan Longoria. Those in points leagues will want to note that the power jump came with a 7% rise in strikeout rate, but we all have to make sacrifices (usually). While Perez may not post a FB% that flirts in the league lead in 2017, his profile is becoming pretty clear as he enters his prime seasons. He should be a nice target for 20 homers and a .250 average here. It isn’t as though he was going to beat out many grounders anyway.

Jung Ho Kang +9.7%

Legal woes aside because this is strictly fantasy-related, Kang profiles as a hitter you want in 2017. How long it takes him to see the field due to requiring extended Spring Training is a hurdle, but he showed off the power in ’16 after a well-rounded rookie season in ’15. His average dropped 32 points to .255 but he blasted 21 homers in only 370 PAs (compared to 15 HRs in 467 PAs in ’15) with an astounding 23.3% HR/FB rate. That’s what happens when you smash more flies alongside a 5% jump in hard-hit rate.

Jonathan Lucroy +9.3%

Lucroy has the type of swing that can utilize the entire field for a high average, but 2016 saw him incorporate some more pull into his swing to give him a career-high 24 homers to go with the .292 average. While his 15.8% HR/FB rate was 4.1% higher than any previous mark, he showed some other marks that indicated more of an uppercut swing. Namely, his soft contact rose 6.5% and his zone-contact rate dropped 5.3% as his swing plane changed a bit, yet obviously the ramifications were A-OK. He should take a step back in either the power or average mark in ’17, a choice that should be easily noticed early by checking in on his fly-ball rate and the like. Regardless, he should be a top-three C yet again one way or another.

Jason Kipnis + 9.3%

Not too shocking considering his 23 homers were a few leaps and bounds ahead of the nine he hit in 2015 and the six from ’14, but it’s still good to see the rates harken back to the ceiling he flashed in 2012-13. Remember how he hit 17 homers and 84 RBI alongside 86 runs, 30 steals and a .284 average? While the speed went down, the bat came back to life with serious power. His 13.1% HR/FB rate from ‘16 wasn’t far off from the 12.4% rate in ’13, as well as the 21.2% K rate (21.7% in ’13) meaning this version of Kipnis has some real viability. Of course, starting the season on the DL with a shoulder injury is not what you want to see from someone who has a nice swing, just look at his teammate Michael Brantley, but at the very least his 2016 should not be written off as a blip.

Xander Bogaerts +9.1%

What a strange 2016 Bogie had. The young upstart Bostonian lit the world on fire in the first half but collapsed after the All-Star break. He only had a 31.5% fly-ball rate through the first half, but that mark jumped to 39.2% in the second half as he seemingly sold out a bit for power to keep his bat afloat amidst a 76-point slip in average. Either one would still be up from the 25.8% clip from 2015, but we’d obviously take the fewer flies if the all-around value would return. At the ripe age of 24, Bogaerts should have a good chance at reorienting himself with a healthy, but not overkill, approach to power in pull-happy Fenway Park.

Kevin Kiermaier +8.3%

Kiermaier is the type who could really flourish in 2017, but he could also just get wrecked by an extreme approach if pitchers can find some weak points to exploit. We’ve discussed him in terms of pulling the ball nearly half of the time, but 2016 saw him begin to really try to lift the ball (37.6%). As a result, his BABIP dropped from .306 to .278 – though he kept his strikeout rate steady at about 18%. With 30 steals possible out of his legs, the 15-18 homer potential from his power-hungry bat makes him a solid flier in drafts. He still posted a 20.6% line-drive rate, roughly the league average, with most of the flies coming out of 2015’s ground-ball budget. He may only hit .250, but the profile backs some untapped power as the premier defender enters his age-27 season. If only he can stay healthy...

Yasmany Tomas +8.2%

You thought we’d get through one of these without mentioning Tomas? Nonsense! Partly thanks to under-performing in 2015 and likely over-performing a bit in 2016, the gains are putting him on many maps. Sadly, his 31.4% fly-ball rate is still below the league-average mark of 34.6%, but perhaps the other gains in hard-hit and pull rates, as well as playing in hitter-friend Chase Field, can help him keep that HR/FB efficiency high. His 25% clip in that category from ’16 will likely still slip a bit, but if he can hover around 20% then a 25-homer campaign should be mighty doable for Arizona’s 26-year-old slugger.

 

More Sabermetrics & Fantasy Baseball Strategy




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cincinnati Reds5 hours ago

Terry Francona Returns After Dealing With Stomach Issue
Shohei Ohtani6 hours ago

Has "Positive" Bullpen On Saturday
Spencer Strider6 hours ago

To Make Another Rehab Start On Thursday
Luis Torrens6 hours ago

Dealing With Bruised Forearm
George Springer6 hours ago

Dealing With Back Spasms
Bobby Witt Jr.7 hours ago

Slugs First Homer Of The Season
Alexis Díaz7 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Might Not Return To Closer Role When Activated From Injured List
Austin Gomber7 hours ago

Shut Down From Throwing, Won't Pitch For A Few Weeks
Yoán Moncada8 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Expected To Miss Sunday's Game, Could Return On Tuesday
Matt McLain8 hours ago

Could Miss Sunday's Game Against Milwaukee
George Springer8 hours ago

Exits Saturday's Game Early After Crashing Into Wall
Carson Kelly9 hours ago

Provides Power On Saturday
Matthew Boyd9 hours ago

Throws Six Scoreless Innings
Ronald Acuña Jr.9 hours ago

Ronald Acuna Jr. To Meet With Doctors Soon
Eduardo Rodriguez9 hours ago

Records 12 Strikeouts
Jackson Holliday10 hours ago

Posts Three-Hit Performance
Trent Grisham10 hours ago

Blasts Two Homers
MLB12 hours ago

Red Sox-Cardinals Postponed On Saturday
Matt McLain12 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday
Yoán Moncada12 hours ago

Yoan Moncada Won't Play On Saturday
Luis Rengifo12 hours ago

Playing On Saturday
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
11
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
29
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
1
1
2
3
3
7
4
11
6
14
7
15
8
18
9
19
10
20

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jaxson Dart - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Dynasty Rookie Draft: Superflex, 12-Team (2025)

Don't we all love mock drafts? I sure do. The monotony of them can get... monotonous after a while when the vast majority of them just have short, shallow write-ups of each player without giving an emphatic, helpful take on each. I hope to do the opposite. Considering how far consensus can be (and usually […]


Marvin Mims Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Next Gen Stats Review: 2024 Wide Receivers and Tight Ends

Last season, we covered Next Gen Stats for receivers and tight ends. It's fun to look at different advanced stats after the previous season's digests. There's no rest because many of us dive into the 2025 prospect class leading to the NFL Draft. We're using a mixture of the publicly available Next Gen Stats and […]


Ja'Marr Chase - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Early 2025 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: 12-Team, Single QB

There's never any reason not to do more fantasy football mock drafts and break down the efficacy of every pick. Or so the saying goes. Sun-Tzu probably said that in The Art of War. I haven't read the whole thing, so I'm not sure. Either way, it's never not interesting to speculate on what the […]


Cam Ward - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Draft Prospect

NFL Draft Predictions - 2025 First Round Mock Draft (Post-Free Agency)

It seems like the Super Bowl was just yesterday, but in reality, the NFL offseason is chugging right along. We have gone through the Senior Bowl, the first waves of free agency, and the NFL Combine. In just a few short weeks, we will have the NFL Draft. This draft class is unique, with a […]


Top 10 Fantasy Football Busts Of All Time - Le'Veon Bell, Peyton Hillis, LeSean McCoy, and more

Fantasy football managers have the fear of picking busts fresh in their minds every season because every year, players who are thought to be headed for productive seasons, whether due to injury, not reaching overly high expectations, or other reasons, bust hard. Those who drafted San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey are well aware […]


Mark Andrews - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Every AFC Team's Most Overvalued Dynasty Fantasy Football Player

The 16 teams that comprise the AFC all have players that I don't think are worth, on their own, what you could get for them in trades as compensation. Not all of them are bad players, though. In fact, some of them are quite good. "Most overvalued" is a relative thing. And since there's not […]


Jayden Daniels - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Free Agency Check - Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers and Fallers

This NFL offseason has been incredible. With big-name free agents shuffling around the league, 2025 looks like an exciting season, and we haven’t even had the draft yet! Over the last few offseasons, we have seen a massive increase in quarterbacks switching teams. This season, the list includes Russell Wilson, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, Justin […]


Kenneth Walker III - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Running Back Next Gen Stats Review - Fantasy Football Outlooks For 2025

After the 2023 season, we covered Next Gen Stats for the running back position. We highlighted rush yards over expected per attempt and the percentage of carries with eight defenders in the box. Now, it's time to examine the Next Gen Stats for running backs again, but we'll mix in other advanced metrics. Unsurprisingly, rush […]


Cooper Kupp - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy or Sell: DK Metcalf, Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Cooper Kupp, and Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Davante Adams all landed in new teams ahead of the 2025 season. Formerly of the Seahawks, Rams, and New York Jets, all three of these wideouts' fantasy football values have undergone marked shifts after landing at their […]


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Lineup Picks: DraftKings Daily Fantasy Fantasy Advice for Week 2

Welcome to Week 2 of the inaugural UFL season, RotoBallers! We already have one week in the books, with the XFL teams off to a hot start at 3-1 while the USFL conference went 1-3. We have Houston squaring off against Arlington in the early game and San Antonio versus St. Louis in the later […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: NFL Draft QB Scouting Report!

Michael F. Florio gives his scouting report for the 2025 NFL Draft QB class. Do Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders live up the hype? Should you be excited about Jaxson Dart and Jalen Milroe? Plus, he goes over the deeper options in this class! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Best Bets: Week 2 Picks

Well, the opening week is always full of curveballs, and 2025 was no exception. We actually saw the Birmingham Stallions lose a game, looking bad in the process. Overall, I went 3-3-1 on spreads and over/unders last week, so a bit inconvenient that neither parlay worked out. It is a short season, so the pressure […]


Isaiah Bond - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Sleepers: 5 Undervalued Draft Targets

We all know at this point who the top names are heading into the 2025 NFL Draft. Ashton Jeanty will be the dynasty rookie RB1. Tetairoa McMillan will be the rookie WR1. But fantasy leagues aren't won just by getting a top-2 or three rookie pick and grabbing the best guys. Rookie drafts are also […]