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Top College Prospects - Dynasty League Scouting (Conference Championship Week Edition)

Matt Wispe looks at the top fantasy devy prospects for Week 14 of the college football season. Monitor these NCAA players for dynasty fantasy football leagues.

If you're a fan of chaos, Rivalry Week may have fallen a little short with only one significant upset, but with four top ten teams suffering a loss, the college football rankings have been changed in a big way.

The final pieces to the puzzle to decide the teams in the College Football Playoff will be placed this weekend when six of the top seven teams compete for their respective conference championships. And if previous years mean anything, which the committee has proven they don't, the final data point weighs heavily in breaking resume ties.

Today, we'll take a look at four WRs who will be playing in conference championship games. Certain notable omissions will be featured in the lead-up to their bowl games.

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Scouting The Wide Receivers

Riley Ridley, WR Georgia

Week 14 - vs. Alabama (12/1)

Riley Ridley may have only been known as the younger brother of Calvin Ridley entering last year's National Championship game, but he's taken a step forward this season and appears to improve his draft stock significantly.

Riley Ridley G Rec Yds Avg TD MS Receiving Yards MS Receiving TDs Dominator
2016 6 12 238 19.8 2 0.09 0.13 0.11
2017 8 14 218 15.6 2 0.08 0.08 0.08
2018 12 34 450 13.2 8 0.17 0.29 0.23
Career 26 60 906 15.1 12 0.12 0.18 0.15

Ridley's career statistical line looks like a single season for many prospects we've looked at this season. As I previously mentioned in Week 6, Ridley isn't my favorite prospect but film scouts have seen improvement in his route running, and his dominator rating makes it clear that he's become a bigger part of the team's offense. However, even with his role increased, he's still second on his team in receiving yards and his 0.23 dominator rating, which surpasses some analysts threshold for a breakout, ranks 130th nationally. Ridley will fall well short of the ideal career market share of 29 percent, and while his final season is an improvement, he lacks the raw production to be a standout prospect, statistically.

At his current age of 22, Riley Ridley wouldn't face the same age concerns that surrounded his brother should he choose to declare for the draft following this season. However, he doesn't bring the same level of excitement to traditional scouts or the stat line that his brother had amassed. For Ridley to become a first round pick, he'd likely need to have big games on the biggest stages and lucky for him, there's the potential for several more big games. Against Alabama in the 2018 National Championship game, Ridley finished with six receptions for 82 yards. If he can have another big game on route to a Georgia upset, his stock could rise during the College Football Playoff. As it stands, Ridley looks like an early Day 3 NFL draft pick and his most likely rookie draft ADP is in the mid-to-late-third round.

Collin Johnson, WR Texas

Week 14 - vs. Oklahoma (12/1)

Two weeks ago, I discussed Johnson's teammate, Lil'Jordan Humphrey as a potential sleeper in next year's draft with the reasoning that #TeamBigWR would eventually fall in love with him. But lined up opposite of Humphrey is an even taller WR with multiple seasons of production.

Collin Johnson G Rec Yds Avg TD MS Receiving Yards MS Receiving TDs Dominator
2016 9 28 315 11.3 3 0.10 0.14 0.12
2017 13 54 765 14.2 2 0.23 0.11 0.17
2018 11 57 768 13.5 6 0.25 0.23 0.24
Career 33 139 1848 13.29 11 0.19 0.17 0.18

Despite standing 6-foot-6, Johnson hasn't been a major touchdown scorer with a career high of six in a season. But with two seasons over 20 percent market share of team yards, he's proven that he's a valuable asset between the twenties.  Per Bill Connelly's statistical profile, Johnson has converted 64 percent of his 89 targets into catches for 771 yards and six touchdowns.

This week, Texas will have a rematch with their rival, Oklahoma, for the Big 12 Championship. In Week 6, the Longhorns pulled the upset which turned out to be Oklahoma's only regular season loss. In that game, Johnson had six receptions for 81 yards and a touchdown. He has yet to have a multi-touchdown game this season, and only has one for his career. A multi-touchdown game to win a conference championship would be a nice feather in his cap should this be Johnson's final season in Austin.

As a prospect, Johnson falls short of several significant thresholds. His career market share of yards falls well short of 29 percent, and he's never had a season with a dominator over 0.30. And while Johnson has been effective, his 13.29 yards per reception isn't indicative of a player who will stretch the field. Johnson's value will likely be determined by his draft stock. CBS Sports lists Johnson as the 13th best WR in the class and the 89th overall prospect. If Johnson is drafted in that range, then he's likely a second round pick in rookie drafts. I wouldn't expect Johnson to be drafted before day three so my expectation is that he'll be a third or fourth round rookie pick.

Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill, WR Ohio State 

Week 14 - vs. Northwestern (12/1)

I'm combining these two prospects into on preview because they're similar and come from the same team. Judging Ohio State receivers has proven difficult because historically, there's yet to be a truly dominant receiver when it comes to market share. This has caused analytical evaporators to whiff on future stars with Michael Thomas being the notable example. Both Campbell and Hill lack some of the dominant market share numbers, but there are some other aspects to their profile that make them intriguing.

Parris Campbell G Rec Yds Avg TD MS Receiving Yards MS Receiving TDs Dominator
2015 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
2016 12 13 121 9.3 0 0.04 0.00 0.02
2017 13 40 584 14.6 3 0.16 0.08 0.12
2018 12 71 825 11.6 10 0.19 0.24 0.22
Career 41 124 1530 12.34 13 0.12 0.10 0.11

Campbell will fall well short of the ideal 29 percent market share for his career, and while he's demonstrated athleticism, he hasn't turned that into a field-stretching yardage efficiency. In a similar mold to Curtis Samuel, Campbell has been used on kickoffs and has several rushing attempts.

Campbell's notable trait is his speed. As he demonstrated in the Michigan game, he's among the fastest players in college football and can create explosive plays from anywhere on the field. For players like Campbell, the NFL combine is a critical element to his evaluation as his performance will have a big impact on his draft stock. ESPN's recruiting profile listed his high school 40 time at 4.41 seconds and he ran a 10.75-second 100-meter dash for his track team in 2014. His high school track coaches indicated that he had the potential for high-level success had he chosen to focus on sprinting. While there are red flags with his production, Campbell's explosiveness will undoubtedly raise his draft stock.

K.J. Hill G Rec Yds Avg TD MS Receiving Yards MS Receiving TDs Dominator
2016 8 18 262 14.6 1 0.09 0.04 0.07
2017 14 56 549 9.8 3 0.15 0.08 0.11
2018 12 66 823 12.5 6 0.19 0.14 0.17
Career 34 140 1634 11.7 10 0.15 0.09 0.12

Judging purely on his numbers, there are some serious red flags for Hill. He never truly had a breakout season based on his dominator rating, his market share of yardage is just over half of the ideal 29 percent, and his yardage efficiency falls well short of the 17 yards per reception that would point to a field stretching WR. But his numbers have increased across the board in a season focusing more heavily on the passing game which would indicate an increased level of trust by the coaching staff.

Both Campbell and Hill have red flags with regards to their career production and will need to have good overall draft processes in order to solidify themselves as top prospects. However, even though both lack the ideal market shares, their usage in kickoffs and rushing show versatility and the coach's desire to get the ball in their hands. Both will be under the age of 22 on draft day so age will not be a concern. As of this date, I'd project both as late day two selections, but both have big ranges of potential outcomes. If they go on Day two, I'd expect they'll end up as second-round rookie picks. With the success of Michael Thomas and recent upswing in usage of Curtis Samuel, there's reason to believe that both could be values if taken after round one.

More NCAA Football Analysis




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ryan McDonagh

Lightning Sign Ryan McDonagh to Three-Year Extension
Trayce Jackson-Davis

Set to Suit Up Thursday
Ja Morant

Considered Day-to-Day
Tee Higgins

Ready to Return After Full Practice?
Jimmy Butler III

Sidelined Thursday
Jayden Daniels

Practices in Full on Thursday
Jaylen Brown

Ruled Out Thursday Against the Wizards
Lamar Jackson

Expected to Play Against Steelers
Quentin Grimes

Is Ready to Return on Thursday
Deshaun Watson

Not Expected to Play This Year
Paul George

Will Not Play Against the Warriors
Joel Embiid

Upgraded to Questionable for Thursday
CFB

Joe Sloan Expected to be Kentucky's New Offensive Coordinator
Justin Herbert

Chargers "Really Optimistic" That Justin Herbert Will Play on Monday
Michael Porter Jr.

Will Not Play Thursday
CFB

Lane Kiffin Working to Keep Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker at LSU
Noa Essengue

Out for the Season
Mike Evans

has "Real Chance" to Return in Week 14
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Expected To Miss 2-4 Weeks
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Realistic Expectation is for Amon-Ra St. Brown to Return Next Week
Jalen Carter

Won't Play in Week 14 After Having Shoulder Surgeries
Justin Herbert

Expected to Practice Either Thursday or Friday
Mike Evans

Practicing Again Thursday
Jusuf Nurkić

Jusuf Nurkic Questionable With Rib Contusion
Marcus Smart

Sidelined Thursday Against Raptors
Los Angeles Clippers

Chris Paul Set To Part Ways With Clippers
CFB

Brian Daboll a Candidate for Penn State Head-Coaching Job?
Yves Missi

Sidelined vs. Wolves
Quentin Grimes

Uncertain To Play Against Golden State
Bilal Coulibaly

Likely Out Multiple Weeks With Oblique Strain
Karel Vejmelka

Records Impressive Shutout
JJ Peterka

Rocks Ducks With Four-Point Effort
Cole Caufield

Extends Point Streak With Power-Play Assist
Matvei Michkov

Delivers Two Assists Wednesday
Jake Oettinger

Grabs Fourth Consecutive Victory With Shutout
Ryan Leonard

Tallies Four Points in Wednesday's Win
Cam York

Exits Win Early
Jakob Poeltl

to Sit Out Thursday's Game
Alexandre Sarr

to Miss Third Straight Game Thursday
Jonathan Kuminga

Iffy for Thursday
Jimmy Butler III

Listed as Questionable for Thursday
Paul George

Questionable Thursday
Kyren Williams

Expected to Play in Week 14
Davante Adams

Expected to Play Despite Missing Wednesday's Practice
Kyle Tucker

Visits With Blue Jays
Woody Marks

Texans Say Woody Marks Will be Fine
Rasmus Ristolainen

to Miss at Least One More Week
Drew Doughty

Logs Full Practice Wednesday
Emilio Pagán

Reds Bring Back Closer Emilio Pagan on Two-Year Deal
Jeff Skinner

Remains Sidelined Wednesday
Petr Mrazek

Out 2-3 Weeks
Tyler Seguin

Likely Done for the Season
Neal Pionk

Returns to Jets Lineup
J.J. McCarthy

Practices in Full, on Track to Return in Week 14
Cedric Mullins

Rays Agree on One-Year Deal
Mark Andrews

Agrees to Three-Year Extension With Ravens
Freddy Peralta

Brewers Considering Trading Freddy Peralta
Kyle Schwarber

Reds Serious About Adding Kyle Schwarber in Free Agency?
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Officially Questionable for Thursday Night
Omarion Hampton

"on Track and Looking Good" for Week 14
CFB

Brent Key Signing Five-Year Deal to Remain at Georgia Tech
Joey Bosa

Week-to-Week With Hamstring Injury
Bryce Young

Panthers Expected to Pick Up Bryce Young's Fifth-Year Option
Deshaun Watson

Browns Opening Practice Window for Deshaun Watson
CFB

Brian Hartline Expected to Land USF Head-Coaching Job
CFB

Collin Klein Expected to be Top Target for Kansas State if Head-Coach Job Opens
CFB

Chris Klieman Considering Stepping Down at Kansas State
Aaron Rodgers

Appears to be Healthier Heading into Week 14
Alexander Wennberg

a Game-Time Call Wednesday
Michael Callahan

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Michael Rasmussen

Makes Early Exit Tuesday
Scott Wedgewood

Exits Early With Back Problem
Evander Kane

Expected to Be Fine After Skate Cut
Tyler Seguin

Injured Versus Rangers
Sean Monahan

Expected to Play Thursday
CFB

D.J. Durkin Staying at Auburn Under Alex Golesh
CFB

Charlie Weis Jr. Permitted to Coach Ole Miss Offense in College Football Playoff
CFB

Five-Star Quarterback Jared Curtis Flips Commitment From Georgia to Vanderbilt
CFB

Florida Hiring Brad White as Defensive Coordinator
Kyle Schwarber

Giants Have Checked in on Kyle Schwarber
Willson Contreras

Willing to Waive his Full No-Trade Clause?
Edwin Díaz

Mets Still Interested in Re-Signing Edwin Diaz
Devin Williams

Agrees to Three-Year Deal With Mets
Cole Ragans

Red Sox Targeting Cole Ragans in a Trade?
CFB

Kentucky Hires Oregon Offensive Coordinator Will Stein As Head Coach
CFB

Kalani Sitake the Top Target for Penn State Coaching Job
CFB

Josh Heupel Says He's Not a Candidate for Penn State Head Coach Job
CFB

Will Stein, Brian Hartline the Top Candidates for Kentucky Job?
CFB

Nebraska Fires Defensive Coordinator John Butler After One Season
CFB

UCLA Expected to Hire Bob Chesney as Next Head Coach
CFB

Lane Kiffin to Make $13 Million Salary, Ties Kirby Smart
CFB

Buster Faulkner, Joey Halzle Candidates for Florida Offensive Coordinator Job?
CFB

Kentucky Officially Fires Mark Stoops
CFB

Lane Kiffin to be Introduced as LSU's Next Head Coach on Monday
Zack Wheeler

Likely to Return in May
Ryan Helsley

Agrees to Two-Year Deal With Orioles

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