RADIO
Last week was a tough one, as Louisiana Tech announced their quarterback was suspended the day of the game. Naturally, the over pick didn't hit, but if he was there, it was a likely winner. Georgia took care of business, while Arizona didn't even break double digits. You'll have days like this and we just have to push forward.
- Week 12 Picks: 1-2 (33%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 19-19 (50%)
I'm here to breakdown each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even money lines for this week in the NCAA. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Marshall at Charlotte (+7)
O/U: 55.5
As winners of their last six, Marshall is one of the hotter Group of Five schools in the country. Last week's win was against a Louisiana Tech team depleted by a key suspension, but a win is a win. Quarterback Isaiah Green is a solid dual-threat option but it's the run game that has fueled this offense to 26 points per game in their last three. Brenden Knox eclipsed 1,000 yards for the season last week, and the Thundering Herd have rushed for at least 170 yards in 7-of-10 games this season. Defensively, they've been better the last two weeks, and though that’s likely circumstantial, they've allowed just 19 ppg on the road this season, compared to 27 ppg at home.
Following a four-game losing skid, Charlotte has popped off three straight C-USA wins over North Texas, Middle Tennessee, and UTEP, respectively. The offense has been hit-or-miss at times this season, with more hits than misses. Quarterback Chris Reynolds is a dangerous playmaker who has accounted for 23 touchdowns this season. Meanwhile his backfield complement, Benny LeMay has added 11 more. This offense runs through that pair, and if they get slowed down, the entire offense will sputter. Defensively, the 49ers have shown glimpses of success this season, but too often they get gashed by opponents. They've allowed at least 145 yards rushing in 9-of-10 games, and 26 ppg over their recent winning streak.
In Marshall’s four road games, the total has gone under three times, while the 49ers have had three overs hit in their five home games that carry a Vegas number. However, consider that Marshall’s offense favors the run, while Charlotte is fighting to become bowl eligible and I think these two will take some time to feel each other out, keeping it lower scoring.
Pick: Under 55.5
Boston College at Notre Dame (-19)
O/U: 64
BC has been without starting quarterback Anthony Brown, but it doesn't matter because running backs AJ Dillon and David Bailey run the show, literally. Their 2,216 combined rushing yards are the second-most in the country by a duo. Defensively, things are rough for the Eagles as they allow 348 passing yards per game on the road, which is the third-most in the country. They'll need to find any way possible to put pressure on Ian Book and the Fighting Irish if they are going to have any success defensively.
The Golden Domers have been on fire the last two weeks, albeit against Duke and Navy. Quarterback Ian Book has been efficient, if not outstanding, in their two blowout wins, and he'll get the chance to be even better against a leaky BC defense. For Notre Dame, their defense has been stout recently, allowing just 265 yards per game and 15.7 ppg in their last three. Obviously, stopping the run will be crucial for ND, but they’ve fared well this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per rush at home.
Boston College has covered in each of the last four games where they’re considered road underdogs of between 10 and 20 points. Meanwhile, they’re 3-1 against the spread on the road in 2019 and they're 6-3 ATS as visitors since 2018 started. As for Notre Dame, they’re 4-2 ATS at home this year, and 7-5 ATS since last year. That being said, I like BC to use and abuse that run game to keep this one within three scores on the road.
Pick: Boston College +19
Houston at Tulsa (-3)
O/U: 58.5
Houston has been a wreck since D’Eriq King decided to redshirt after four games. Most recently, they’ve faced off with a ranked SMU and Memphis, as well as a dangerous UCF team, which all resulted in losses while allowing an average of 41 ppg. However, they’ve been able to put up 29 ppg themselves over that stretch, and all this with dwindling numbers. Even head coach Dana Holgorsen has noted he worries, at times, whether they’ll have enough guys to finish the season. Quarterback Clayton Tune has done the best he can to make things happen, accounting for five scores over the past three.
Tulsa took down UCF two weeks ago, despite the Knights running up, down, and around them. Quarterback Zach Smith has done a solid job taking care of the football this season, so he and their solid, balanced offensive attack aren’t the reason that they’re 3-7 this year. They’ve allowed 36 ppg at home this season, but that includes visitors of Oklahoma State, Navy, Memphis, and UCF. Houston is is nowhere close to any of those teams.
While Tulsa is just 2-3 ATS at home this season, consider those opponents they’ve welcomed to Chapman Stadium. They’re fresh off a bye week following an upset win over a formerly ranked UCF team, so this team will be ready to go. Houston, on the other hand, is depleted of playmakers and are 1-4 straight up in their last five. Give me the Golden Hurricane and the points.
Pick: Tulsa -3
