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Nick Federline's NCAA college basketball betting picks for Wednesday, March 3, 2021. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Welcome back! In this article every week, we'll be giving you some of the top college basketball games and betting picks for Wednesday, March 3, 2021. As we approach the month of March, keep an eye out for our extended coverage of March Madness. Stay tuned here at Rotoballer for our comprehensive March Madness coverage, including a look at this week's Bubble Report.
Last week brought about a strong, and much need, 4-1 bounce-back. Buffalo kicked things off with a dominant 28-point drubbing of Northern Illinois, followed by VCU winning a key close game over conference foe and fellow bubble team St. Louis. Iowa State nearly upset Baylor as 24.5-point underdogs, and Mississippi Valley State's offense was putrid, losing by 37 to Texas Southern, but also failing to cross 50 points and ruining any chance at hitting the over. The 4-1 week takes the season-long record to 26-18.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks. Let me know your thoughts, and follow along with the action on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time. Season record to date: 26-18.
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Connecticut @ Seton Hall - 6:30 PM
This battle between two Big East titans is arguably the most consequential game among bubble teams all day. UConn found its way into the bracket as one of the last four teams in on this week's Bubble Report, whereas Seton Hall fell out of the field and is listed as one of the last four out. The Huskies are catching their stride, winners of four out of the last five games. Coach Dan Hurley's team is led in scoring by guard James Bouknight, a sophomore from Brooklyn, New York. Bouknight pours in 20.5 points per game, but gets an awful lot of help from Howard transfer point guard RJ Cole, who serves as a steady ballhandler and game manager. A big reason why the Huskies fell to the Pirates in the teams' first matchup this year was that Bouknight has only played in 10 of the team's 18 games. Luckily, the Huskies' most dynamic guard is healthy and helping UConn play its best basketball at the most important time. A few more wins and an NCAA Tournament berth would give UConn its first NCAA Tournament bid since the 2015-2016 season, marking the longest tournament drought since a 10-year drought was ended in the 1989-1990 season.
Seton Hall coach Kevin Willard has recorded a productive 56% win percentage during his 11 years in South Orange, New Jersey. Willard learned the chops as a player under his father Ralph at Pitt, and later as Rick Pitino's top assistant at Louisville during the mid-2000s. The Pirates' center Sandro Mamukelashvili has been a mainstay on campus for years, and leads the charge with 17.8 points per game and 7.1 rebounds per game this year. While star guard Myles Powell now plays for the Westchester Knicks of the NBA's Developmental "G League," the guard play has been buoyed by a pair of seniors - Myles Cale and Shavar Reynolds. Cale is a 3-year starter who was never asked to do much heavy lifting on offense before the 2020-2021 season, while Reynolds started only 1 game during his entire tenure as a Pirate before becoming a key cog of this year's team. The winner of this game will secure third place in the Big East conference tournament, and will cement a defining piece of their resume - a head-to-head victory over a fellow bubbly team.
Pick: UConn -1
Incarnate Word @ Houston Baptist - 8:00 PM
As the Incarnate Word Cardinals enter the final week of their regular season, Coach Carson Cunningham will likely be glad to see his team made it through a pandemic-riddled season. The Cardinals have been able to record an 8-11 record, showing improvement in each of Cunningham's 3 seasons (19.4% winning percentage in year 1, followed by 29.0% in year 2 and 42.1% currently in year 3). As Incarnate Word looks to the future, Coach Cunningham has turned to Hawaiian freshman forward Logan Bracamonte in more situations, and we should expect to see a heavy dose of Bracamonte and Greek freshman forward Thomas Zevgaras, a 6-foot-9 behemoth that will terrorize Southland opponents when they come to visit the San Antonio region in the years to come. The future continues to look brighter and brighter for the Cardinals, but there will continue to be growing pains for the 196th ranked defense in the country.
While we often go back to the Houston Baptist totals well, it has been a profitable venture this season. Coach Ron Cottrell's ineptitude and flat-out refusal to play defense allows its opponents to score an average of 81.7 points per game, ranking 340th in the country out of 347 Division I teams that suited up this year. Coach Cottrell's teams have rarely been known for their defenses, and this year's team is young and likes to play with a high pace. Only one scholarship senior sits on the roster, meaning that this core nucleus could return to see if a year of cohesion amidst a worldwide pandemic could help the Huskies stand to improve on their 4-17 record. One bright spot has been the collective play of freshmen guards Za-Ontay Boothman, Jade Tse, and Brycen Long down the stretch. Entering the season, Houston Baptist only returned 30.1% of its total points scored from the 2019-2020 season. The average player has only been on the roster 0.9 years entering the year, and with so many new faces has brought challenges that will take more than a year to settle out.
Pick: Over 143.5
Maryland @ Northwestern - 9:00 PM
Northwestern would like this game, but at 15-10 and with a widening bubble, Maryland NEEDS this game. Coach Mark Turgeon's team has a strong defense (50th), has played a difficult schedule (6th-hardest strength of schedule) and has the wind at its back, with 5 straight wins. Avoiding a damaging loss to Northwestern and Penn State down the stretch is the first order of business. The Terrapins' balanced attack features junior guards Aaron Wiggins and Eric Ayala as the key "go-getters" in this offense, but relies on the depth that the team boasts. While the defense has done a good job of avoiding points, Maryland will need to shore up the glass if they hope to make a run in the tournament, as they place 252nd nationally in rebounds per game.
Evanston, Illinois is without a doubt the most difficult Big Ten program to win at. The school prides itself in its strong academics, and its hard-nosed football team, leaving basketball to pick up the scraps. Coach Chris Collins, in his eighth year, brought their Wildcats to their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance in the 2016-2017 season, which provided him the equivalent of a lifetime contract. Since that high point, the Wildcats are 43-73, and falling behind in the Big Ten. The team is still seeking its identity, but could stand to shoot more perimeter shots to take advantage of the skillsets provided by junior forwards Pete Nance and Miller Kopp. Sophomore guard Boo Boie has earned significant playing time down the stretch, and was a key cog in the Wildcat's most recent game, a narrow victory over Minnesota - a game which likely removes Minnesota from bracket contention altogether.
Pick: Maryland -4
South Carolina State @ North Carolina A&T - 6:00 PM
South Carolina State head coach Murray Garvin is likely counting down the days until the offseason. With his Bulldogs sitting at 1-17, and with a dismal offense, dismal defense, and extremely young team (4 of the top 6 minutes played are freshmen), this year has been a difficult rebuilding year. The Mideastern Athletic Conference (MEAC) has endured a unique challenge with so few of its teams playing this year. Each weekend, a team travels to an opponent to play back-to-back games against that opponent. To make up for lost games, the Bulldogs recently played 3 home games against Florida A&M in a four-day stretch. Wednesday's game marks the first of a two game series against North Carolina A&T, who already has a 2-0 record over the Bulldogs this year.
Coach Willie Jones has the North Carolina A&T Aggies in strong position in the MEAC, with a 7-1 conference record and a 3-game lead over the 2nd place teams. The Aggies success has come as result of some luck, methodical play, and effective coaching down the stretch. Senior guard Kameron Langley is the only Aggie to average double digit scoring (10.9 points per game), but the team does go twelve players deep. This enviable depth allows the Aggies to make wholesale substitutions that the MEAC just cannot keep up with. Little-used 7-footer David Greer is the only active 7-foot player in the MEAC this year.
Pick: NC A&T -13
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
