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Nick Federline's NCAA college basketball betting picks for Wednesday, January 29th, 2020. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
In this article every week, we'll be reviewing some of the top college basketball games of the day to see how we can beat Vegas. Today's slate of games includes a coach pursuing history, and a matchup between two Southland Conference teams with two combined Division I opponents.
This past Saturday, the record of 1-3 was a minor setback, from which today's slate will hopefully get us back on track. It may be wise to fade Air Force and bet on the other military academies Navy and Army until the Falcons can figure out what is going wrong with their season.
Here are some of the top college basketball expert betting picks for Wednesday, January 29. Let me know your thoughts, and follow me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
Season record to date: 18-14
Memphis @ Central Florida (UCF) - 7:00 pm
Coach and NBA legend Penny Hardaway brought the consensus top-ranked recruiting class to Memphis, Tennessee this year, and the results have been dismal in American Athletic Conference (AAC) play. Since star forward and top recruit James Wiseman officially decided to leave the team to prepare for the NBA draft in December, the Tigers have limped to a 2-6 record. The team is led in scoring by a talented trio of freshmen in Precious Achiuwa, DJ Jeffries and Lester Quinones. This talented group is combining for nearly 37 points per game (ppg) and is shooting nearly 50% from the field collectively, but have not done a good job of shutting down opposing offenses.
This season's rendition of the UCF Knights barely resembles last year's team. Last year, the Knights nearly knocked off Duke in a memorable matchup in the NCAA Tournament's second round. Gone from that team are Tacko Fall, BJ Taylor, Aubrey Dawkins, and a collective 78% of the minutes played. Unfortunately for the Knights, they may not be the team able to take advantage of Memphis' lack of defensive wherewithal as the Knights are shooting just 31% from 3-point range and averaging less than 70 ppg.
Pick: Memphis -2
South Dakota State @ Oral Roberts - 8:00 pm
When the South Dakota State Jackrabbits' season started, the number of questions surrounding the team seemed infinite. Replacing their top two scorers in Mike Daum and David Jenkins, as well as coach TJ Otzelberger who departed for UNLV, would not be an easy task. Seemingly from day one, junior college transfer Doug Wilson emerged as the go-to scoring option and has teamed with sophomore forward Matt Dentingler to form a formidable offensive duo.
Oral Roberts was a charismatic American Christian televangelist who founded Oral Roberts University (ORU) in 1963. The ORU Golden Eagles joined Division I a mere 8 years later, and after bouncing between affiliations joined the Summit League for the second time in 2014. Coach Paul Mills' team has 11 wins on the season and a strong record at home that is buoyed by 3 wins over Division II and III teams. The first matchup between these teams was in Brookings, South Dakota where the Jackrabbits manhandled the Eagles by 17 points.
Pick: South Dakota State +3.5
Incarnate Word @ Houston Baptist - 8:00 pm
The Incarnate Word Cardinals have only one win over a Division I opponent and have lost by double digits in 4 consecutive games. The Cardinals, led by head coach Carson Cunningham, are a young team that was expected to have its share of problems this year but are among the bottom-10 teams in the nation. One of the most promising players on the Cardinals' roster is Norwegian freshman forward Marcus Larsson, whose playing time has consistently increased as the season has progressed and will be looked on as a leader in the coming years. The Cardinals have a collective 4-15 record, including three non-Division I wins, against the nation's 333rd ranked schedule so far.
Houston Baptist is an exciting team that loves to play at a high tempo, but also seemingly is very good at losing basketball games. The Huskies also only have one Division I win, which came in overtime over Central Arkansas. Somewhat shockingly, the Huskies have gone over the total 14 of 17 times, despite the average total being set at 167 points. The offensive barrage in most games has come from the Huskies' opponents, as they have played the 98th most difficult schedule in the country. Luckily for Houston Baptist, they finally play a winnable game in what will be just their second game all season as the favorite. This game will mark the second Division I win for one of these lucky teams which should make for must-watch television.
Pick: Houston Baptist -7 / Under 170
West Virginia @ Texas Tech - 8:00 pm
Coach Bob Huggins has led the West Virginia Mountaineers to a strong start and has his team looking like a prime contender to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. While the Big 12 is wide open, the 17th ranked Mountaineers have started to make their claim for the crown by covering the spread in 7 of their last 8 games. Freshman phenom Oscar Tshiebwe has led the way, teaming with sophomore forward Derek Culver as the two most important players on the team. No player averages more than Culver's 24 minutes per game - a direct result of Huggins' desire to play an aggressive defensive style known fondly as "Press Virginia." Coach Huggins needs just one win to pass longtime Kentucky coaching legend Adolph Rupp for seventh place in career coaching wins.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders dropped the earlier season matchup between these two teams in Morgantown and Coach Chris Beard is still hoping to find the right formula to make this year's team gel. The Red Raiders, who lost in the national championship game to Virginia last year, were rebuilt on the fly this offseason with graduate transfers TJ Holyfield (Stephen F. Austin) and Chris Clarke (Virginia Tech) playing outsized roles alongside holdover Italian guard Davide Moretti. Even Coach Beard would have to admit that this year's Red Raiders can't hold a candle to the fire that was last year's squad.
Pick: West Virginia +2.5
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
