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In this article every week, we'll be reviewing some of the top college basketball games of the day to see how we can beat Vegas. Today's slate of games is full of teams seeking to make lasting and final impressions on the Selection Committee, and other teams trying to build momentum in advance of their conference tournaments.
An incompetent first half of play by the Seton Hall Pirates was the only thing standing in the way of a winning day on Saturday. The second half played by the Pirates showed exactly why we trusted Kevin Willard's team, and why they will still be a serious title contender to be reckoned with in March.
Here are some of the top college basketball expert betting picks for Wednesday, February 19. Let me know your thoughts, and follow me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
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Nicholls State @ Northwestern State - 7:30 pm
The Nicholls State Colonels have been a difficult team to evaluate this season. They started the season with a win over Pitt, and single-digit losses to three likely NCAA Tournament teams in Illinois, LSU and Rhode Island. Once the team got to conference play, Coach Austin Claunch's team dropped a head-scratching game at home against a pesky Northwestern State team. The 29-year old Claunch, who is the youngest head coach in Division I, attributed the loss to poor three-point defense and most importantly being outrebounded by 21. Regression to the mean would likely cause that rebounding margin to be fairly even, as Northwestern State ranks only slightly above Nicholls State in rebounding statistics for the season as a whole.
Coach Mike McConathy is the longest-tenured head coach in the Southland Conference in his 21st season in charge of Northwestern State. The memories of the Demons' 2005 NCAA Tournament victory over Iowa as a 14-seed are long gone. At 12-12, the Demons stand a decent chance of notching their first winning season since the 2014-2015 campaign.
Pick: Nicholls State -3.5
George Washington @ Duquesne - 0:00 pm
The George Washington Colonials, led by Head Coach Jamion Christian, are in the midst of a rebuilding year. Arguably the most exciting player so far has been freshman guard Jameer Nelson Jr., who is leading the Colonials in steals and is scoring in double figures. The Colonials sport a miserable 2-7 record on the road, and it will take time for Coach Christian to continue to recruit the players needed to fit his system. George Washington has lost the last five games against the Dukes. One season ago, George Washington lost its last game in Pittsburgh by 16.
Coach Keith Dambrot's Duquesne Dukes have not played a true "home game" all season, due to renovations at the UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse which will be their new home arena for the 2020-2021 season. Students have trekked to nearby PPG Paints Arena, home of the Pittsburgh Penguins, and the Dukes have adopted PPG as their home away from home this year. Junior guard Tavian Dunn-Martin, who was the 2019 Atlantic 10 Sixth Man of the Year, is a 5-foot-8 ball of lightning who leads the Dukes with 57 three-pointers. The star for the Dukes is sophomore point guard Sincere Carry, who originally was committed to Division II West Chester University before signing with the Dukes and has made many college coaches look foolish for not recruiting him.
Pick: Duquesne first half -5
Boston College @ Virginia - 8:00 pm
Coach Jim Christian is in his sixth season as the head coach of Boston College and in the midst of his most successful year in charge. Despite losing star guard Ky Bowman to the NBA, the Eagles find themselves at 7-8 in ACC play and in reaching distance of an NIT invitation. For a school that has played in only one postseason tournament this decade, Coach Christian will surely be motivated as the Eagles seek out a few more resume-boosting wins. Former five-star point guard Derryck Thornton, who comes to Boston College via Duke and USC, is the lifeblood of the offense, with the sharpshooting Jay Heath and big man Nik Popovic contributing in big ways this season.
The defending champion Virginia Cavaliers has been a defensive juggernaut that far surpasses any team that Coach Tony Bennett has led. Coach Bennett, long known for his defensive-minded philosophy, has his team allowing a mere 52 points per game, ranking first in the nation. The problem for the Hoos comes on the offensive end, where they score a measly 56.8 points per game, which sits at 351st out of 353 NCAA Division I teams. Virginia, who currently sits squarely on the bubble with a 17-7 record, has only won one game in 2020 by double digits. With a game likely to find the score for each team falling in the 50s, a double-digit spread is too large to pass up.
Pick: Boston College +11
Tulsa @ Houston - 9:00 pm
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane's surprising 2019-2020 season has been one of the best developments in the American Athletic Conference (AAC). Coach Frank Haith has done a good job resuscitating a middling program and his team is on the edge of the bubble. With an NIT bid more likely at the moment, some teams might settle and not bring their best. Coach Haith has coached in the NCAA Tournament four times and has been eager for the opportunity to get Tulsa back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2016. These road warriors, on the back of French senior forward Martins Igbanu, have won four of their last five road games, and are in upset form at the right time. In the early season matchup between these teams, Tulsa edged out Houston narrowly at home.
The Houston Cougars entered the season as the presumptive second-best team in the AAC behind the stacked Memphis Tigers. Now in mid-February, the Cougars find themselves tied for the conference lead at 10-3 and safely in the NCAA Tournament field. Coach Kelvin Sampson's team relies on its stellar defense to suffocate opponents and win more than its fair share of slugfests. Aside from a total collapse, the Cougars likely will not be able to change their seeding in the NCAA Tournament, so they may fall into a mode known to some as "playing not to lose."
Pick: Tulsa +10.5
Duke @ North Carolina State (NC State) - 9:00 pm
On Saturday, we were on the wrong side of the Duke beatdown that Coach K's team put on Notre Dame. That game, and the dominant run that Duke has been on in conference play, further displays the growing chasm between the top-3 Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) teams and the remainder of the league. Most of the ACC teams not named Duke, Louisville or Florida State, find themselves closer to the NIT bubble than the NCAA Tournament bubble. Duke has only dropped two conference games this season and should be locked in as they pursue a spot on the 1-seed line.
The NC State Wolfpack have played only one of the top-3 ACC teams, and that game ended in a 20-point home loss to Louisville. Coach Kevin Keatts' team has lost four of their last six games, and have slid well off the NCAA Tournament bubble. Senior guards Markell Johnson and CJ Bryce form a respectable backcourt, but the Wolfpack have continued to search for an answer in the frontcourt to no avail. A mixture of Lehigh graduate transfer Pat Andree and fellow forwards DJ Funderburk and Jericole Hellems will play the majority of minutes underneath but do little to instill confidence that they will be able to improve on their 212th ranked team rebounding against a strong Duke frontline led by all-ACC contender Vernon Carey.
Pick: Duke -6.5
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
