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Nick Federline's NCAA college basketball betting picks for Wednesday, December 23, 2020. He analyzes CBB Vegas lines and recommends the top expert bets including spreads and over/unders.
Welcome back! In this article every week, we'll be giving you an early Christmas gift with some of the top college basketball games and betting picks for Wednesday, December 23, 2020.
Last week's slate of games was cut in half after two last-minute cancellations due to COVID-19. The remaining two games resulted in a split, with an easy under in the NEC matchup of Sacred Heart vs. Long Island, and a misfire on Samford as they were not up to the test against Troy. This 1-1 week brings the season-long record to 6-3 thus far.
Here are some of the top college basketball betting picks. Let me know your thoughts, and follow along the action with me on Twitter @fredetterline. All game times below are Eastern Standard Time.
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#22 Xavier @ #13 Creighton - 3:00 pm
The Xavier Musketeers are off to a hot 8-0 start, which marks the Cincinnati-area program's best start since a 12-0 start in the 2015-2016 season. Senior guard Paul Scruggs was named the Big East Player of the Week last week, and continues to lead the way as a 3rd year starter for Coach Travis Steele. Flanking Scruggs is sophomore forward Zach Freemantle, who is the team's leading scorer at 17.5 points per game (ppg) and Belmont transfer guard Adam Kunkel, who hit the game-winning shot over Marquette. The 8-0 record, however, might not tell the full story. Single digit wins over Bradley, Toledo, and Eastern Kentucky (in overtime) show that there is still some work to be done for the Musketeers, who rank 155th in points allowed per game, and 138th in strength of schedule. The total has gone over in six of Xavier's eight contests.
Coach Greg McDermott, whose son Doug plays for the Indiana Pacers in the NBA, is in the midst of his 11th season at Creighton and his 21st season as a Division I NCAA Basketball Head Coach. This year's team may be the best he's ever had, as they've started with a 6-2 record, including losses to Kansas and Marquette. Junior point guard Marcus Zegarowski was picked as the media's preseason Big East player of the Year, and can be found on a plethora of award watchlists, including the Naismith, Wooden and Cousy awards. He's joined in the starting lineup by 4 fellow upperclassmen who all average double digit scoring. Last year's Big East Sixth Man of the Year winner Denzel Mahoney is off to a fast start (15.3 ppg) and has been tasked with replacing last season's star Ty-Shon Alexander (now a member of the Phoenix Suns) on the wing. The total has gone over in six of the Blue Jays' eight contests.
Pick: Over 155
Illinois @ Penn State - 6:30 pm
Coach Brad Underwood's Fighting Illini entered the year to great fanfare, and for good reason. When star guard Ayo Dosunmu took his name out of the 2020 NBA draft to return to school, Illinois immediately became one of the frontrunners to hoist the Championship banner in March. Sophomore Jamaican center Kofi Cockburn nearly averages a double-double per contest and is a player that NBA scouts are keying in on as a possible lottery pick next year. The depth of this team shows with stretch-four Giorgi Bezhanishvili, two year starter from the European nation of Georgia, relegated to the bench - where he has been an incredibly efficient piece off the bench. Coach Underwood publicly berated what he felt has been unfair treatment targeting his team's propensity to commit fouls. In the three Illinois losses, the Illini have been outshot 91-to-56 from the free-throw line. Giving up that many easy scoring opportunities is a recipe for disaster.
Penn State is a program undergoing significant change this season. Former coach Pat Chambers stepped down after allegations of inappropriate conduct towards his players was brought to light. In his place, top assistant Jim Ferry was promoted. Ferry has fifteen seasons of experience as a Division I head coach at Duquesne and Long Island, so he should be well-prepared to take on this unique challenge. The Nittany Lions sport a 3-2 record against the 9th toughest schedule in the country. Penn State has won the games that you might expect them to sweeping wins over Virginia schools (VMI, VCU & Virginia Tech), with the losses coming to Seton Hall and Michigan, as expected. Replacing forward Lamar Stevens has been a group effort this season, as the Nittany Lions typically go 7-deep. Point guard Sam Sessoms was a standout in the America East at Binghamton and brings a score-first, alongside a heavy dose of turnovers style. The team is young, with only three seniors on the team and a cabal of young freshmen who are developing to become the next wave of Big Ten stars.
Pick: Illinois -3
Cal State-Bakersfield @ Pepperdine - 6:00 pm
The CSU-Bakersfield Roadrunners are sitting at .500 on the back of a slow tempo and solid defense. Coach Rod Barnes' team operates at a snail's pace, leading to the 243rd scoring offense in the country by points per game. The team's leading scorer is off-the-bench ball-of-energy small forward Taze Moore, a Mississippi native in his senior season in Bakersfield. The Roadrunners do have an experienced team anchored by seven seniors, but coming off a 12-19 season makes questioning those seniors' talent a legitimate inquiry. The Roadrunners have only topped 60 points once in a game, excluding two wins over Division II teams. CSU-Bakersfield's playing style is nearly a direct opposite of the fast-break offense that Pepperdine utilizes. These clashing styles could spell trouble for Coach Barnes' team if they do not dictate the pace early on.
Pepperdine has gotten out to a bumpy 4-4 start, but returns to the comfy confines of the Firestone Fieldhouse. The Waves ride and die with their duo of Colbey Ross and Kessler Edwards. Ross is a fourth-year starting point guard from Aurora, Colorado, who will likely hold nearly every major Pepperdine scoring and assist statistic. He's nearing 2,000 points for his career, and is a sharp-shooter at nearly 38% behind the arc. Edwards, meanwhile, is a third-year starting forward who is one of the best 3-point shooters in the West Coast Conference (42% clip on 4.8 attempts per game) and averages 18.4 ppg. Head coach Lorenzo Romar, who started his head coaching career with Pepperdine in 1996 before a long successful career with Washington, is turning a corner in his 3rd year back in Malibu. Recruiting is trending up, the Waves are scheduling generally tougher non-conference opponents, and were gaining some preseason excitement in the conference polls. While inconsistency has led to unacceptable losses like the recent loss to Cal-State Northridge, the team has the potential to fight with the "big dogs" as evidenced by taking UCLA to triple overtime, and knocking off California of the Pac-12.
Pick: Pepperdine -8
Grand Canyon @ Colorado - 11:00 pm
Coach Bryce Drew, the former Valparaiso standout, is in his first-year in charge of the private Grand Canyon University, located in Phoenix, Arizona. The Antelopes have utilized their European twin towers to a 4-2 start, with the two losses in narrow fashion to Arizona State and San Francisco. The twin towers, Italian 6-foot-10 forward Alessandro Lever and Danish 7-foot center Asbjorn Midtgaard, combine for 30.2 ppg and 14 rebounds per game. Lever and Midtgaard are two of the five seniors on this team, and two of the four international players.
Tad Boyle was hired to lead the Colorado Buffaloes in 2010m and has had a successful run. With four NCAA Tournaments (and arguably his most talented team last year when there was no tournament) under his belt, Boyle is enjoying success at a school that previously had been considered a difficult place to win. Senior guard McKinley Wright IV is the star in Boulder, now that Tyler Bey has gone on to the NBA. Wright is flanked by a trio of senior forwards - Jeriah Horne, Dallas Walton and Maddox Daniels - in the starting lineup. The Buffs have the 95th highest scoring offense, paired with a stout defense allowing only 56.3 ppg. Aside from their sole loss to Tennessee, the Buffaloes have yet to face a ranked team. In their last tuneup before conference play starts up, Colorado will want to stay healthy and keep their loss column at one against one of the stronger West Coast mid-major programs.
Pick: Grand Canyon +13
Thanks for reading, and remember to gamble responsibly.
