Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Redraft Prospects for 2021 (Part 1)

Part 1 of Marc's updated top 50 fantasy baseball prospects rankings for 2021 redraft leagues. Today he breaks down his top 20 impact MLB prospects and rookies.

Spring Training 2021 is almost here, which means it’s time to start thinking about prospects again. A strong pop-up performance from a rookie or two can have a massive impact on a fantasy manager’s season.

If we look back to the truncated 2020 season, we can easily locate a healthy dose of players that had strong performances for their respective clubs. Outfielders Kyle Lewis and Luis Robert provided a healthy dose of power. Third baseman Alec Bohm didn’t tap into his raw power as much as expected during his debut season but he was a strong performer nonetheless and produced a 136 wRC+. Infielder Jake Cronenworth built off a strong minor league showing in 2019 to become a key contributor for the Padres with a 125 wRC+ as well as positional versatility. On the pitching side, Ian Anderson and Tony Gonsolin — whom we heavily promoted during last year’s preseason — outperformed some of the larger names like Jesus Luzardo and Dustin May.

With an eye towards the 2021 season, we’re relaunching our annual top 50 redraft fantasy baseball prospects rankings list which will be regularly updated throughout the season. Prospect projecting is never an easy task because the success of the projections relies on a few things we cannot control such as injuries and, most importantly, playing time opportunities which are far less certain for rookies than they are for established players. Below, you’ll find a comprehensive list with detailed comments on the Top 20 rookies for 2021 -- the first-year players that we expect to be the cream of the crop and also receive substantial playing time. Part two of this article will cover the remainder of the top 50 prospects.

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Top Prospects for 2021 Fantasy Baseball

These prospect rankings are for 2021 redraft leagues.

Elite Prospects for 2021

1. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays: I first stumbled upon Arozarena in 2017 and after watching him play in Double-A, I projected him as a future above-average hitter with 20-20 potential. It took some time for him to arrive as he navigated through the deep Cardinals system but the Cuba native finally broke out late in the 2020 season. His record-setting postseason exploits were well-documented.

Arozarena is going to come back down to Earth in 2021 and he doesn’t run as much as he used to, but 20-25 home runs are still very possible given how hard he can sting the ball. If he’s going to be a star, though, he’s going to need to learn to hit breaking balls. He scorched fastballs to the tune of a .684 xSLG but he managed just .185 versus breaking pitches.

2. Ian Anderson, SP, Braves: Anderson burst upon the MLB scene last in late August last year and never looked out of place. Although his control was hit-or-miss at times, he held opposing hitters to three runs or fewer in each of his six starts. Anderson isn’t flashy but he does a little bit of everything well.

He commands his three-pitch mix well with his curveball needing the most work but even that pitch held hitters to a .226 xBA and a .261 xSLG. Overall, he held big league hitters to a 1.2% Barrel rate which was elite. There is nothing in Anderson’s underlying numbers to suggest his 2020 success was a fluke.

3. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals: With just 18 games of experience above Double-A prior to the 2020 season, Carlson was perhaps pushed a little too aggressively when he was promoted to the Majors. He struck out at a 29% clip and hit just .200 with limited power but he may have been the victim of some bad luck. Overall, his BABIP was a below-average .260 and, while normally a good fastball hitter, he produced below-average results against the hard stuff (His xSLG was a promising .552  over the actual .364 SLG).

Another positive sign for moving forward: Carlson handled breaking balls well and five of his six hits against the benders went for extra bases. If Carlson can push his way through the significant depth that the club has at the corners, then he should have a good shot at producing a .260-.280 batting average, a walk rate close to 10%, 20 home runs, and a handful of steals.

4. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Twins: Unlike the first two hitters on this list, Kirilloff didn’t make it into a big-league game in 2020 thanks in part to the organization’s depth in the outfield. The time at the alternate training site may have been a benefit for the young outfielder simply by saving him from going through the daily grind of the demanding minor league schedule (and bus rides, etc) after struggling with injuries throughout his early career. Even with lost development time due to injuries, Kirilloff’s natural hitting abilities have shone through.

He has a natural feel for the barrel and makes a lot of easy, hard contact but, like a lot of young hitters, he can get too aggressive at times rather than waiting for an ideal pitch to drive. With some continued focus on increasing his launch angle, Kirilloff could easily tap into 25 home runs or more.

5. Nate Pearson, SP, Blue Jays: The 2020 season was mostly forgettable for Pearson — aside from actually making his MLB debut. He never looked quite right at the MLB level and may have been pitching through an injury. He uncharacteristically struggled with his command and control, while also not displaying the consistent premium heat that he’s become known for. He looked better in late September and in a playoff appearance after his stint on the IL.

After an off-season of making significant changes to the club, the Blue Jays will still heavily lean on Pearson for the 2021 season as his stuff is better than any pitcher on the staff. If he’s truly back to full health, then he should be a huge source of strikeouts while minimizing the damage from walks and home runs.

6. Triston McKenzie, SP, Indians: McKenzie was an enigma entering the 2020 season after missing a year-and-a-half of development time due to injury. He had a little bit of an issue with the long-ball but otherwise looked strong with a 33% strikeout rate. His two breaking pitches were especially effective and his four-pitch mix kept batters off balance. McKenzie was hurt most when he caught too much of the strike zone with his average fastball (and rarely used changeup which he throws too hard). 

If he’s going to continue to succeed at a high level, he’s going to need to find some of his old velocity or continue to maintain strong command of his fastball to set up hitters while relying heavily on his slider and curveball to miss bats.

7. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners: If Kelenic opens the year in Seattle — or arrives in short order — then he deserves to sit atop this list. However, our expectations have the talented young hitter making his debut closer to the midpoint of the season than the beginning, which explains his placement on the list. When he arrives, he will instantly create a dynamic pairing with fellow outfielder Kyle Lewis, a top 2020 rookie.

Kelenic doesn’t have quite as much raw power as Lewis but he has a more natural feel for hitting and he’ll eventually produce more than his fair share of home runs. He’s also a more rounded player and could add 15-20 steals in a full season.

8. Wander Franco, SS, Rays: Like Kelenic, Franco is another player that would move up this list if he was expected to be with the big league club on opening day. Although he has no traditional experience above A-ball thanks to the pandemic — and is still a teenager until March — Franco looked good at the alternate training site and was under consideration for a promotion late in the 2020 season. He also recently looked good in the Dominican Winter League against much older competition before leaving due to an injury.

Franco has an elite eye at the plate and will produce both a high average and a strong on-base presence when he reaches the Majors. His home run pop is still a work in progress as he continues to mature physically and works to get more balls into the air -- but I have no doubt that he'll hit for power.

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates: Hayes looked like a completely different player after an early-season stint at Pittsburgh’s alternate training site. He came up to the Majors and immediately look like he belonged despite modest minor league numbers in previous seasons. Looks can be deceiving, though.

Hayes generated an otherworldly (and highly unsustainable) .450 BABIP which doesn’t bode well for his future batting average contributions. His 25% HR/FB rate and well-below average launch angle also suggest his five home runs in 24 games was also fluky (His previous high in home runs for a full season was 10). On the plus side, Hayes hit the ball hard and had a promising Barrel rate so he could end up producing a .280-.290 average with 30-40 doubles and 15 homers.

10. Ryan Mountcastle, 1B, Orioles: The elimination of the entire 2020 minor league season hit a lot of players hard. But not everyone struggled with what seemed like lost development time. Mountcastle showed a new-found maturity at the plate with increased patience and a willingness to use more of the whole field while getting away from his previous pull-heavy approach. The young infielder is naturally strong so he doesn’t need to sell out for power so he’ll be well-served moving forward if he continues with his new approach.

On the downside, Mountcastle’s strong batting average was aided by a BABIP just shy of .400. His batted ball numbers, while respectable, did not really stand out with the exception of his Hard Hit rate which was 7% higher than the league average. Moving forward, we can expect a .260-.270 batting average with average on-base numbers and 20 home runs — OK but not great numbers from the 1B/LF/DH slots.

Top Prospects for 2021 ranked 11-20

11. Sixto Sanchez, SP, Marlins: Sanchez should open the year by pitching meaningful innings at the big-league level after a solid showing in 2020. In 39 innings, Sanchez held his own despite struggling with his fastball command. He showed an elite changeup and a strong curveball (which he needs to throw more often) but he had some bad luck on the sinker with a .368 batting-average-against (.258 xBA). Sanchez’s value takes a bit of a hit in fantasy baseball because he doesn’t produce elite strikeout rates and instead gets a ton of his outs on the ground.

12. Spencer Howard, SP, Phillies: Howard had a rough introduction to the big leagues when he uncharacteristically struggled with the long-ball. His command was noticeably off during his MLB stint and his fastball wasn’t at its best. When he’s going well, Howard shows four average-or-better offerings but he worked up in the zone too much with his changeup and curveball last year.

13. Tarik Skubal, SP, Tigers: One glance at Skubal’s numbers — which include a 5.63 ERA and nine home runs in 32 innings — suggests a very poor start to his MLB career. However, the young southpaw really only had two bad starts (out of eight total) where 10 of his 20 earned runs were scored. In his final four starts, he struck out 23 batters in 16.2 innings. If his control and command are both working, he’s a very tough pitcher to face.

14. Brent Rooker, OF, Twins: At the beginning of last season, I highlighted Rooker as an intriguing sleeper candidate due to his massive power potential. Sure enough, he got the call over the more heralded prospects — Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach — but he suffered a broken arm after being hit by a pitch in his seventh game. At that point, he was off to a fast start with a 161 wRC+. If Nelson Cruz resigns with the Twins it will hurt Rooker to a degree but he should still find playing time.

15. Cristian Pache, OF, Braves: Pache is known more for his glove at this point in his career but his bat is starting to show signs of life. He’s always been (very) young for the leagues he’s played in and his power has been slowly developing after he failed to clear the fence in his first two pro seasons. There is 20-homer pop in that bat once he makes some launch angle adjustments.

16. Casey Mize, SP, Tigers: I suggested last year that Tarik Skubal was poised to have a better debut than Mize and that ended up being the case as the former first-overall pick struggled with his command. He was hit incredibly hard which is exactly what happens when your sinker doesn’t sink. He's very talented with strong maturity so I fully expect him to make the necessary adjustments.

17. MacKenzie Gore, SP, Padres: A new-look Padres rotation has Gore on the outside looking in as we approach the 2021 season. He’s skilled enough that he’ll push his way into the MLB picture when he’s ready but the organization is clearly not counting on him to pitch meaningful innings in 2021. It’s possible that Gore gets his feet wet in the Majors with a bullpen role, much like Luis Patino did in 2020.

18. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds: Stephenson enters the season as my favorite sleeper in the rookie class of 2021. He looked good in his brief debut even with the 45% strikeout rate. Stephenson has a ton of raw power and appears to have learned to tap into it more consistently while at the alternate training site. He should be able to wrestle playing time away from Tucker Barnhart if he hits, and Stephenson could produce a combination of strong on-base and power numbers in 2021.

19. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, White Sox: Vaughn is another player that would be higher on the list if he had a more clear path to playing time. He’s the top overall first base prospect in baseball because of his ability to hit for both average and power while producing above-average on-base numbers. He may eventually push Jose Abreu to the designated hitter role but I don’t foresee it happening before mid-season.

20. Bobby Dalbec, 1B/3B, Red Sox: Dalbec burst onto the scene in dramatic fashion during the 2020 season with eight home runs in 23 games but pitchers will be better prepared with more comprehensive scouting reports in 2021. The power is for real but the rookie’s xBA for 2020 was .199 and he has some big holes in his swing as witnessed by his 42% strikeout rate. Dalbec will no doubt get an opportunity to secure an everyday gig for the retooling Red Sox.

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