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There comes a point in every dynasty draft where you have to weigh between choosing a top tier proven talent with the seemingly unlimited upside of a rookie draft pick. It seems as if there is never an easy answer; veterans have the advantage of having an actual NFL track record, while rookies seem to continually be devalued in the fantasy community due to their unproven ability at the top level.
However, sometimes, you just get a feeling about a certain young player where you believe that he will outperform everyone at his position and is a prime breakout candidate due to talent, opportunity, or a mix of both. At that point, you have to make the decision: do you choose the proven talent or the upside of a rookie?
One position where rookies break out each year is at running back. With eight running backs being chosen in the first three rounds of this year's draft, you can be sure that a few of them will end the season among the league's best. Last year's best running back was Todd Gurley; the question is, can you see yourself valuing a rookie running back over Gurley's insane performance last year?
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Todd Gurley - Still #1?
When Todd Gurley came into the league after being drafted 10th overall in the 2015 NFL Draft, it was assumed that the Georgia running back would shine. However, nobody predicted that the L.A. Rams' first-round pick would amass over 1,200 all-purpose yards and ten touchdowns in just thirteen games. We see it year in and year out - rookie running backs breakout and take the fantasy community by storm - and Gurley's magic in 2015 was no different. Unfortunately, due to playing for fantasy destroyer . head coach Jeff Fisher, Gurley regressed in a major way in 2016, averaging 3.2 yards per carry and only scoring six touchdowns. However, the young tailback still put up over 1,200 all-purpose yards, making him a solid if unspectacular pick in redraft formats and saving his dynasty appeal.
Entering 2017, the Rams were blessed with the arrival of head coach Sean McVay and his new style of offense as well as the improvement of quarterback Jared Goff in his second season. This was a blessing in disguise for Gurley, who rumbled for 1,305 rushing yards as well as thirteen rushing touchdowns. Additionally, Gurley amassed 788 receiving yards on 64 receptions (12.3 yards per reception) and added six touchdowns through the air. This was a historic year for Gurley, as he proved why he was taken so high in the first round in 2015 and reaffirmed his status as one of the top running backs in the NFL as well as in the fantasy community. Entering 2018, it is fair to expect some regression from the Rams tailback, but another 1600+ yard season with 10+ touchdowns and 50+ receptions is almost expected due to the elite defense that the Rams possess and the run-heavy offense that they will likely adopt. Additionally, teams will not be able to stack the box against Gurley often due to the presence of wide receivers Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp, who should take the spotlight off of Gurley and allow him to continue to destroy defenses each week. Gurley is a locked-in RB1 with the potential to finish as the top running back fantasy football this year and for the foreseeable future.
2018 Rookie RBs
With a plethora of rookie running backs finding themselves in favorable fantasy positions, there is a chance a few of them finish as top-tier talents come the end of the season. The most likely pick to dethrone Gurley as the best running back next year is second overall pick Saquon Barkley from the New York Giants. Barkley is a freak of nature and quite possibly the next LaDainian Tomlinson. Due to the high draft capital the Giants have invested in Barkley and plethora of offensive weapons that the team possesses, Barkley should be able to wreak havoc on opposing defenses and have the pressure taken off of him by the presence of wide receivers Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and tight end Evan Engram. Additionally, with an improvement to the Giants defense and offensive line, the team looks ready to contend for the playoffs and be led by Barkley's running prowess. There is a world where Barkley finishes as the number one fantasy player overall and takes the NFL by storm. However, there is also a scenario where Jonathan Stewart vultures valuable goal-line touches and the Giants are unable to spread the ball around enough or suffer from poor game scripts. Due to this uncertainty, it's better to value Barkley behind the elite tier of running backs (which includes Gurley) in redraft formats but as one of the top dynasty picks in startup drafts.
Two other running backs were chosen in the first round: Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel. Penny, selected by the Seattle Seahawks, enters a team looking to re-establish their run game and help take pressure off of Russell Wilson. With minimal competition, Penny should see a heavy workload and has the potential to be a breakout player at the position. Furthermore, if his ADP in redraft leagues stays where it is currently (mid-round selection), Penny could be a very solid value pick who you should consider pairing up with Gurley as a running back duo and taking several receivers in between. Michel, taken by the New England Patriots 31st overall, perhaps has the greatest upside of any rookie running back because of the potential for a workhorse role on the Patriots, who are consistently one of the highest scoring teams in the league. However, he also has the greatest risk as a result of entering a crowded backfield and the tendency that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has to rotate his running backs. Therefore, prioritize Gurley in the first round of redraft formats over Michel in a mid-round pick, but if you can pair the two up you might have a very solid combination at the position.
Other rookie running backs worth mentioning are Bucs second-rounder Ronald Jones, Browns selection Nick Chubb, Redskins running back Derrius Guice, and Broncos runner Royce Freeman. All have RB1 potential due to their talent, draft capital, and landing spots, but you should prefer the proven reliability of Gurley in the Rams offense in all formats over these runners. Nevertheless, we could see one of these runners take the running back crown in 2018, so it's worth picking these rookies in the mid-rounds of redraft leagues and the first or second round of dynasty startups if you can pair them up with Gurley or if you see value at the wide receiver position in the first round of your draft.
More 2018 Dynasty League Strategy
