RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Mark and I write NFL, MLB, and NHL on Rotoballer. I play NHL DFS almost daily, and am excited to bring you my thoughts on today's slate!
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, March 3rd, 2022 at 7:00 PM EST. Be sure to also check out our awesome suite of NHL DFS lineup tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer or in our premium slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 3/3/22
We have a nine-game slate tonight. We have four starting at 7:00 pm Eastern Time, one at 7:30 pm Eastern Time, one at 8:30 pm Eastern Time, and three at 9:00 pm Eastern Time. We haven't seen as many players get ruled out late, but it's always good to check if projected starting goalies are indeed starting before the individual game locks. The same thing goes with players that are day-to-day as you may not get an update until 20-30 minutes before the puck drops! Nothing is more frustrating than having a great lineup and getting a zero from any position but especially goalie!
NHL DFS Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky- DK $8.3K|| FD $8.5K
Opponent - Ottaway Senators
Florida is the third strongest favorite on tonight's slate, but what has me looking at Bobrovsky tonight is that of those three strong favorites, Bobrovsky is most likely to see the most shots on goal. I want a goalie that will get some saves in addition to the win and this is the combination of the two. Bobrovsky has had back-to-back rough outings scoring just 1.4 DraftKings points in each, and a 1.6 and -1.6 Fanduel point outing each as well.
For the season, Bobrovsky 26-6-3 with a .915 SV%, averages 15.2 DraftKings points per game and 20.4 FanDuel points per game. Playing at home, against a team with a low implied total (2.3 goals), and this is hopefully a bounce-back spot here for Bobrovsky
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Markstrom (DK $8.5K || FD $8.3K), Kuemper (DK $8.4K || FD $8.6K), Talbot (DK $8.2K || FD $7.5K), Vasilevsky (DK $8.1K || FD $8.2K - GPP only), Sorokin (DK $7.8K || FD $7.3K)
NHL DFS Centers
When rostering a Center you have to decide if you are going to pair or stack with a winger. If pairing or stacking, you can go for a pass-first center that will be a little less expensive in hopes of them getting an assist to the winger(s) you have. If you are looking for a Center as a stand-alone player, I recommend rostering Centers that are expected to take a lot of shots on goal. Below you will find recommendations that fall in both camps.
Nathan MacKinnon- DK $9.0K || FD $9.9K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
For the pay-up Center spot, it's between Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid. MacKinnon is playing on a stronger line and going against a weaker opponent, so MacKinnon wins. There's not much else to say here. MacKinnon has 52 points in 39 games, the Avs are implied for 4.5 goals at the moment. If you can afford to spend up, this wouldn't be a bad spot to do it in.
Patrice Bergeron - DK $6.5K || FD $6.7K
Opponent - Vegas Golden Knights
Patrice Bergeron is playing well right now and is price down a little bit relative to his recent production. While he is more of a 0.8 point per game scorer and not the full point that I like to see at the Center position, he does average 3.78 shots on goal per game. In his one game against Vegas this season, he had one goal on two shots. I am willing to take a shot on him at this price range to score a point again and even get another shot or two on goal.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): McDavid (DK $9.1K || FD $10.1K), Barkov (DK $8.9K || FD $9.4K), Draisaitl (DK $7.7K || FD $9.8K), Kadri (DK $7.1K|| FD$9.3K), Stamkos (DK $6.8K || FD $8.5K), Giroux (DK $5.0K|| FD $6.1K)
NHL DFS Wings
Generally, with wingers, I want players that are likely to take many shots on goal at a reduced price. I play tournaments and generally stack, but if I am playing a winger as a one-off I want a guy that is going to shoot a lot and hopefully scores.
Mikko Rantanen - DK $6.9K || FD $8.9K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Mikko is underpriced here on DraftKings, likely boosting his ownership tonight against a bad Arizona team. A 1.27 point per game player that averages 3.51 shots on goal for under $7K on DraftKings? Sign me up.
Johnny Gaudreau- DK $6.6K|| FD $8.4K
Opponent -Montreal Canadiens
I feel like DraftKings is taking a play from FanDuel's playbook and making desirable players as part of stacks lower priced so they are easier to fit in. Gaudreau averages 1.28 points per game and 3.27 shots on goal per game, going against one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Huberdeau (DK $7.3K || FD $8.7K), Kane (DK $7.3K || FD $8.1K), Kaprizov (DK $6.9K || FD $9.1K), Hyman (DK $5.7K || FD $6.4K), Boldy (DK $4.9K || FD $6.3K), Farabee (DK $4.3K || FD $4.8K)
NHL DFS Defensemen
My general rule of thumb with Defensemen is if I am spending up at the position, I want that player to be on the Powerplay with a chance to score a goal. This is also a position I will punt quite a bit at. If I am punting, I want a player that is projected to get a good amount of ice time and has a chance to get a blocked shot bonus on DraftKings. I also try to find defensemen on a power play (might be the 2nd one) if I can.
This slate does not have a lot of great defenseman value at the top of the salary and I would advise to either punt here or add a power-play defenseman to a stack if playing a GPP.
Cale Makar - DK $6.5K || FD $7.1K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Cale Makar averages 1.14 points per game and 2.9 shots on goal per game. He is just the 4th most expensive defenseman on the slate on DraftKings. I do not understand why. On FanDuel he is the most expensive, which makes more sense to me. On this slate, he is the most likely to score a point out of all the defensemen.
Darnell Nurse - DK $5.8K || FD $6.1K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Darnell Nurse does not score many points (22 in 47 games) but he shoots the puck. He averages 3.36 shots on goal per game and 1.74 blocked shots per game as well. All in all not bad for a value play.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Ekblad (DK $6.7K || FD $6.8K), Hedman (DK $6.6K || FD $6.7K), Provorov (DK $5.2K || FD $4.8K), D. Toews (DK $4.9K || FD $6.6K), Pulock (DK $4.3K || FD $4.3K), Murphy (DK $3.7K || FD $4.3K)
NHL DFS GPP Strategy
This will come as no surprise, I am a single entry and 3 max DFS player, but I will look to fade all of those lowest implied total teams and try to target stacks in the high implied total games.
Florida (4.5 implied goals), Colorado (4.5 implied goals), and Calgary (4.1 implied goals) have the highest implied totals on the slate. There is a drop-off from there and Minnesota (3.9 implied goals), Tampa Bay (3.5 implied goals), and Edmonton (3.4 implied goals) are the next tier. All in all, this is projected to be a high-scoring slate.
Because there are a lot of places people can go for scoring, I am not going to worry too much about ownership and instead just take multiple shots at what I like.
With all of that considered, here are some stacks I like tonight:
Calgary 1: Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk. This line combination has scored the most goals in the NHL thus far and they have one of the highest implied totals on the slate going against Montreal. It is correlated with the first power play, and Montreal has the second-worst penalty kill percentage (73.1%) in the league.
Colorado PP1: Outside of MacKinnon, these guys are too cheap on DraftKings. That will likely put me off of rostering them if they turn out to be really chalky. To try to get different, I also don't mind a MacKinnon-Rantanen-Makar three-man stack too.
Minnesota 1, 2, and PP1: Sorry I don't have this narrowed down further but I am going to have some exposure to Minnesota tonight. None of the top two lines are fully correlated to the Power Play. Philadelphia is bad. If you go Line 1, you get a line in which two of the three are on the first power play. Also, Kaprizov-Hartman-Zuccarello have the second most goals as a line combination in the NHL. On the flip-side, Fiala-Gaudreau-Boldy have been playing well together and have scored 13 goals as a line combination in like 20 games played too. Lastly, Philadelphia has one of the worst penalty kills in the league (76.3%) and if you play the Power Play, you can get Kaprizov-Boldy-Zuccarello together. Makes for a tough call and will depend on how you want to attack the slate.
Chicago 1/PP1: This is my "sneaky stack" if it is even sneaky tonight. Edmonton's goaltending has been very shaky all season. Their penalty kill is No. 24 in the league (76.7%). I would wait until closer to puck drop as there are some injured players potentially coming back such as Jonathan Toews and Tyler Johnson. Johnson could be on that top power play. The first line in Chicago will likely be Kubalik-Strome-Kane.
