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Welcome, RotoBallers! My name is Brandon, and I'll be writing both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for tennis and soccer. It is the return of the NHL season, which means it's time to sharpen our skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today, I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel for Tuesday, December 31, 2024, at 8:00 p.m. EST. Be sure also to check out RotoBaller's awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] via X @df_solutions or in our premium Slack chat. Best of luck, and also, Happy New Year!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 12/31/24
Tonight, we have a nine-game slate and two teams playing on a back-to-back: three teams playing on a back-to-back: Nashville, Winnipeg, and Utah. Tonight’s slate offers value across the board, offering creativity when building lineups.
The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are New Jersey with 4.1, Dallas with 4.0, and Carolina with 4.0. I will do my best to guide you through this nine-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EST.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the NHL news feeds for the latest player status and injury news.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Filip Gustavsson - DK $7.8K || FD $8.2K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
The value isn't as cut and dry as usual tonight. However, there are plenty of options worth considering, and Filip Gustavsson of the Wild is at the top of the chart. In their last 10 games without splits, the Predators, in Per 60 stats, are a top-10 team in shots and a bottom-10 team in goals.
Deep diving further, in their last 10 away games, in Per 60 stats, the Predators are a top-10 team in shots, and they are the worst in goals.
In Gustavsson’s last five starts, he has a 3-2 record with a 3.39 Goals Against Average and a 0.891 Save Percentage. Looking at his previous 10 home game splits, he has a 1.74 Goals Against Average, a 0.941 Save Percentage, and a 0.63 Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60. The Predators are the third-best team when assessing value in Shots Per Goal Per 60, leaving plenty of room for Gustavsson to have a ceiling performance.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP):
- Blackwood (DK $8K || FD $7.8K)
- Askarov (DK $7.3K || FD $6.6K)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Nico Hischier - DK $6.7K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Anaheim Ducks
There is plenty of value on the slate at each position tonight. However, pinpointing that value in optimal matchups will be the key. Nico Hischier has the prospects to be a "top value" center. In his last five games, he has two goals, three assists, 15 shots, and eight blocked shots.
There have only been three other instances where Hischier has averaged three shots Per 60 since the beginning of the season in a five-game span, showing his tendency to shoot the puck more often as of late.
The Anaheim Ducks, over their last 10 games without splits, in Per 60 metrics, are the worst in High Danger Chances Against, are a bottom-10 team in both Shots Against and Scoring Chances Against, and are barely worse than average in Goals Against.
Their last 10 home games are better in Per 60 metrics, but not by much. Considering they have the second-worst defense on the slate -- San Jose the worst -- Hischier and company will be expected to produce in handfuls.
Matt Duchene - DK $5.1K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
The signs are there for Matt Duchene to have a big breakout, and his first game with new linemate Jamie Benn is showing it. Duchene posted one goal, two assists, and five shots after posting only one goal, one assist, five shots, and one blocked shot in his last five games prior.
Benn comes into the line as a shoot-first player, providing Duchene an outlet to pass to, whereas he was the outlet to shoot without Benn and Duchene is a pass-first player. The Buffalo Sabres, in their last 10 games without splits, in Per 60 metrics, are a bottom-10 team in Goals Against and are the second worst in both Scoring Chances Against and High Danger Chances Against.
Furthermore, in their last 10 away games, in Per 60 metrics, they are a bottom-10 team in both Scoring Chances Against and High Danger Chances Against and are the fourth-worst in Expected Goals Against. Duchene and company also have the optimal defense matchup, setting them up for a big outing.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Crosby (DK $7.7K || FD $7.3K)
- Frost (DK $4.3K || FD $4.8K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Owen Tippett - DK $5.1K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
The Philadelphia Flyers are starting to heat up, and their schedule has helped. They have seen inconsistency come from their entire roster this season, especially from big guns like Owen Tippett. The winger is starting to see positive regression, though, with one goal, four assists, 10 shots, and eight blocked shots in his last five outings.
The San Jose Sharks, in their last 10 games without splits, in Per 60 metrics, are a bottom-10 team in both High Danger Chances Against and Goals Against, and they are the worst in both Scoring Chances Against and Shots Against. Despite their poor defense, rookie goaltender Yaroslav Askarov, mentioned in "Others To Consider," has seen a resurgence in the net, especially after they traded ex-goalie Mackenzie Blackwood.
Playing Tippett and company will come down to who is in the net for the Sharks. If it is Alexandar Georgiev, Philadelphia will have a higher chance of scoring. If it is Askarov, you will need peripherals from Philadelphia to maintain value.
Jamie Benn - DK $4K || FD $5.5K
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
As mentioned above, Jamie Benn and Matt Duchene had a big performance in the 5-1 win at Chicago on Sunday. In that game, Benn produced one goal, two assists, five shots, and one blocked shot. In his five games prior, he had one goal, three assists, eight shots, and three blocked shots. Benn now brings that production to the second line, who has sorely missed winger/center hybrid Tyler Seguin.
With Duchene setting up the shoot-first Benn, these two could provide the necessary one-two punch that Dallas has needed outside its top line. Benn and the second line will also see the most optimal defensive pairing, setting them up to replicate their Sunday performance.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Rust (DK $6.7K || FD $7.1K)
- Noesen (DK $4.3K || FD $5.8K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Erik Karlsson - DK $5.1K || FD $5.9K
Opponent - Detroit Red Wings
Fellow defenseman Kris Letang was out in the nail-biter of a 3-2 win at home against the Metro rival New York Islanders on Sunday. This left Erik Karlsson with the bulk of the work on the blue line. Shockingly, he did not register a point. However, he put together one of his best games of the season, producing five shots and five blocked shots.
If Letang is to miss the final game of the year, Karlsson will continue manning the expanded role. For only $5.1K on DraftKings and in charge of everything blue-line-related, Karlsson is expected to maintain and surpass value in this meeting with the Red Wings.
Ty Smith - DK $2.5K || FD $3.5K
Opponent - Columbus Blue Jackets
Ty Smith is the slate’s "cheat code." The offensive defenseman was recalled from AHL’s Charlotte Checkers when fellow teammate and defender Shayne Gostisbehere, or "Ghost," was ruled out for the 5-2 home win over the New Jersey Devils on Saturday.
It was also mentioned that Ghost will be out for a while. This led to Smith taking over the quarterback role for Carolina’s top power play, despite guys like Brent Burns (DK $4K || FD $5.3K) being healthy and in the lineup.
In Smith’s 13 games in the AHL this season, he has three goals and seven assists. In his first game back in the NHL, he recorded one shot and two blocked shots. At $2.5K or minimum salary on DraftKings and the role for the Hurricanes, the moon is the ceiling, and it would be more shocking not to double or even triple value in this matchup.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Drysdale (DK $3K || FD $4.3K)
- Brannstrom (DK $2.9K || FD $4K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- NJ1
- PHI1
- DAL1
- CAR1
NHL DFS Stacks of the Day
Brandon's Stack
- NJ: Hughes-Hischier-Noesen
Chalk Stack
- PHI: Tippett-Frost-Michkov
Sneaky Stack
- SJ: Zetterlund-Celebrini-W. Smith
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
