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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 08/10/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have a short eight-game MLB schedule on this Thursday, August 10 afternoon and evening! We have four afternoon games on tap while we will sort through four evening games and grab some value off the board.
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI (-258)
WSH: Patrick Corbin| PHI: Aaron Nola
It's an NL East tilt tonight in the City of Brotherly Love as the Washington Nationals pay a visit to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies.
The Nationals send veteran left-hander Patrick Corbin to the bump for his 24th start of the season while the first 23 largely haven't gone to plan. Corbin has struggled in each of his last three seasons and this one has been no different as he will carry a 5.03 ERA into this one while surrendering 1.63 HR/9. Corbin also sports a 5.18 FIP and 4.88 SIERA that agree with his subpar work while he has been touched up for a 5.31 ERA, 6.49 FIP, and a 2.44 HR/9 on the road in 2023.
The Phillies will hand the ball to right-hander Aaron Nola who is enduring a subpar season himself. Nola's season-long ERA sits at 4.58, far inferior to his 3.71 career mark. However, the good news for the Phils is Nola also sports a superior 3.82 SIERA while he owns a 3.75 ERA and a 3.61 FIP in his 57 2/3 innings at home this season. Nola has long been better at Citizens Bank Park where he sports a career 3.23 ERA versus a 4.18 mark on the road.
As expected, the Nationals have largely scuffled at the plate as they sit in a share of 25th with a .302 wOBA versus right-handed pitching on the season. As for the Phillies, their offense hasn't been anything spectacular off lefties but their .323 wOBA off southpaws sits 17th in baseball as they hold the offensive advantage in this one.
Finally, the home side also sports a superior bullpen. Philadelphia's bullpen sits ninth with a 3.75 bullpen ERA on the season while Washington comes in at 28th with a 5.06 ERA from their relievers.
Add it up and the Phillies, who are in a playoff race, should be able to take this one by at least a pair of runs tonight.
Pick: Phillies run line (-122, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: BOS (-245)
KC: Austin Cox | BOS: James Paxton
The Royals and Red Sox finish off a four-game set tonight in Beantown as the Red Sox look to win the set by a 3-1 count.
It's a bullpen day for the Royals as reliever Austin Cox opens a game for the third time this season. The 26-year-old tossed 8 1/3 innings between his two opens in outings on June 28 and July 3 but he has maxed out at 1 1/3 innings in his seven outings since. However, Cox has made nine of his 12 Triple-A outings as a starter, so he could certainly go multiple innings in this one.
Nonetheless, the left-hander owns a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.70 FIP in 27 2/3 innings in the big leagues and a 3.61 ERA in 47 1/3 minor-league frames. However, Cox also sports a 6.71 FIP in the minors while he owns a 4.92 SIERA in the bigs. He has been fortunate with the Royals as he sports a 3.58 ERA despite an unsustainably low .236 BABIP, a weak 37% ground-ball rate, a subpar 8.1% K-BB%, and a 3.6% HR/FB rate that has nowhere to go but up.
As for the Red Sox, it's veteran southpaw James Paxton toeing the rubber. The 34-year-old battled injuries once again earlier in the season but has tossed a healthy 3.60 ERA in 14 starts on the season. He also owns a strong 3.72 FIP and an impressive 20.1% K-BB% that back up his quality work to this point. Paxton has also worked to a tidy 3.00 ERA in 33 home frames this season where his K-BB% jumps to a whopping 28.7% clip.
The Royals have scuffled at the plate for much of the season and it's been no different versus lefties. Kansas City sits in a share of 24th with a .302 wOBA off southpaw pitching while sitting in a tie for 23rd with a .144 isolated power off of lefties. As for the Red Sox, they rank 13th with a .328 wOBA off lefties while they sit third with a .358 wOBA at home on the season.
The Red Sox bullpen hasn't been special but they easily hold the advantage here. Boston sits 15th with a 4.07 ERA from their relievers while the Royals fall all the way to 29th with a 5.26 bullpen ERA.
All signs point toward the Red Sox grabbing a series win with ease Thursday night.
Pick: Red Sox run line (-125, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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