Tight Ends to Target in 2024 Fantasy Football Redraft Leagues - Part I

The tight end position has been, for years, has been dominated solely by Travis Kelce. Sure, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, and George Kittle have had their years, but this has been Kelce's position. That is starting to change. In fact, for the first time in what feels like forever, Kelce is not the first tight end off the board (that's a mistake by the way), but we'll get to that in a little bit.

The tight end position has more upper-tier talent than we've seen in a long time. There can be an argument made for five, maybe six different tight ends that have a chance to finish as "the" No. 1 tight end. Compare to that 2-3 years ago and it's vastly different. Still, when it comes to fantasy football, everything comes down to price. A good player might still be a sell if they're overpriced. In this article, we'll be identifying five tight ends fantasy managers should be targeting this season. This is the first edition of a two-part series.

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Travis Kelce: TE2, ADP 31

Sam LaPorta just edged out Kelce for TE1 honors last year in half-PPR scoring, averaging 11.6 to Kelce's 11.5. However, if we include Weeks 1-17 and the NFL playoffs, Kelce's half-PPR PPG average jumps to 12.9, while LaPorta's goes to 11.3. We'll stick with Weeks 1-17, though. During that time, Kelce's expected half-PPR PPG average was 12.0, first among tight ends. LaPorta's was 10.2, tied for fifth. The number one reason for the discrepancy is touchdowns.

Kelce scored five on 117 targets, while LaPorta scored nine on 111. Kelce's expected touchdowns were 7.7, almost three more than he scored. LaPorta's was 6.1, almost three fewer than he scored. Kelce had more targets than LaPorta and finished with more red zone targets and end zone targets. Let's stop focusing on LaPorta for a second. In the past three seasons before 2023, Kelce hadn't scored fewer than eight touchdowns in a season. Therefore, we need to determine if Kelce scoring only five touchdowns last year was just noise or something to be concerned with.

In the table above, you can see his targets, red zone targets, and end zone targets per game averages from 2020-2023. It also includes his 2020-2022 average. You'll also see his touchdown rate for each season and his three-year average from 2020-2022. As you can see, his target numbers align with his three-year average. His targets per game dropped by one, his red zone targets dropped by 0.33, and his end zone targets dropped by 0.05 per game. Those numbers do not come close to explaining why he went from scoring 12, 8, and 11 touchdowns to just five. His 2020-2022 touchdown rate was just 7.6%, but in 2023, he scored just 4.2%.

Kyle Pitts: TE6, ADP 61

Fantasy managers can effectively forget everything that’s happened to Kyle Pitts over the past two seasons. Between the ineffective coaching staff and the even worse quarterback play, Pitts has had to endure a situation that would have rendered even the best tight ends irrelevant. If you've forgotten how bad it was, please scroll back up to the table under the receivers to see the difference between Cousins, Ridder, and Mariota.

The new coaching staff has put a point of emphasis on getting Pitts more involved. His 71.9% snap share in 2022 ranked just 19th among tight ends. His 76.1% route participation rate was 13th. For someone like Pitts, those numbers do not make any sense. His snap share decreased in 2023, down to 65.1%, but thankfully his route participation increased to 87.2%. Given the new coaching changes, we expect to see Pitts more involved in the offense. He should see a big increase in his snap share and route participation.

Not only that, but Pitts is fully healthy. He missed the end of the 2022 season due to a torn MCL. That injury impacted him throughout 2023. Oftentimes, we talk about how a torn ACL can be a two-year injury for a running back. The same is true for other positions, as well. Pitts is now two years removed from that injury and should look more like his 2021 self.

Just in time, too, because the acquisition of Cousins and hiring Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson has Pitts' potential skyrocketing. Some fantasy managers have tricked themselves into believing that Pitts hasn't been good since entering the NFL; the table below should dispel that notion.

It’s not hard to see the fantasy appeal of a good quarterback when looking at his utilization and advanced statistics from the last three years. Despite missing time in 2022 and 2023, Pitts has finished first in unrealized air yards in both seasons. It’s not a stretch to think that many unrealized air yards become real yards with good quarterback play.

In 2021 and 2022, he posted top-seven marks in yards per route run, yards per reception, and yards per team pass attempt. He also posted top-10 numbers in target share and rate during those first two seasons. The last row you should focus on is his total touchdowns. He has just six touchdowns in three seasons on 258 targets. That’s an abysmal 2.3% touchdown rate. That number has the potential to double itself this year. Fantasy managers should be buying Pitts.

Jake Ferguson: TE9, ADP 88

Ferguson finished last season as TE9 with an 8.3 half-PPR PPG average. However, based on his utilization, he had the potential for many more touchdowns. Banking on improvement in the touchdown department isn't always the best science, but there is reason to believe Ferguson could find the end zone more in 2024. Expecting some regression to the mean in a positive direction isn't outrageous thinking. Not to mention, touchdowns are a big part of the tight end position's scoring. Let's look at some of the statistics Ferguson put down last season.

• 102 targets (seventh among all tight ends)
• 16.9% target share (16th)
• 20.0% target rate (17th)
• 275 slot snaps (11th)
• 511 routes run (third)
• 83.2% route participation rate (11th)
• 71 receptions (ninth)
• 761 yards (eighth)
• 520 air yards (16th)
• 1.49 yards per route run (15th)
• 7.5 yards per target (15th)
• 10.7 yards per reception (13th)
• 1.24 yards per team pass attempt (13th)

As you can see, Ferguson isn't precisely blowing away the competition regarding his efficiency. He's a solid player; nothing more, nothing less. However, he has a desirable situation. He received 24 red-zone targets, the third most among tight ends, and the ninth-most end-zone targets, tied for second most. Despite having the seventh-most targets, third-most red-zone targets, and second-most end-zone targets, Ferguson tied for seventh with just five touchdowns. Based on his utilization, his expected touchdown total was seven.

Jake Ferguson also = very unlucky on TDs

He scored -3.8 TDs vs. expected per @HaydenWinks. No TE is due for more +TD regression

Saw that already in playoffs, where Ferg went:

10 rec (12 tgts), 93 yds, & 3 TDs for 37.3 PPR FPs!

Ferg = top bet to be elite TE w/o Top-50 cost pic.twitter.com/Rkb76yKThM

— Wolf of Roto Street (@RotoStreetWolf) June 25, 2024

Ferguson was Dallas's second-leading target earner, besting Brandin Cooks by 21. He was second in receptions and yards, finishing with 17 more receptions and 104 more yards than Cooks. Cooks is another year older now and will turn 31 in September. He's coming off of back-to-back seasons with fewer than 700 yards. He averaged just 41.1 yards per game last season, well below his 62.7 career average. Last season, Cooks was having lunch here and there with Father Time, but for the 2024 season, Father Time has officially moved in. Dallas's No. 3 receiver is third-year player Jalen Tolbert. He had 268 yards in 2023. Ferguson is all but locked in to be Dak Prescott's No. 2 target-earner in a huge way this season.

Not only that, but we could see Dallas become even more pass-heavy this upcoming season. Last year, it finished with the eighth-most pass attempts, third-most yards, and the most passing touchdowns. It lost Tony Pollard in free agency this offseason and replaced him with Ezekiel Elliott. Rico Dowdle and Zeke will be the team's primary running backs this season. Over the past three seasons, these two players have combined for 2,905 yards on 748 carries, roughly a 3.9 yard-per-carry average. Granted, Zeke accounts for 95% of that, but Dowdle wasn't much better last year, averaging just 4.1 yards per carry. With a backfield deprived of talent in such a big way, the offense may be forced to lean on Prescott and the passing game even more heavily this year than they did last.

Taysom Hill: TE25, ADP 193

Hill is a unicorn in fantasy football. Some fantasy managers love him, and others despise him for thinking he’s cheap. It doesn’t matter your opinion; he’s here and relevant -- especially now. News dropped in early June that Johnson would require foot surgery, and the team is hopeful he’ll be back by the start of the season. That doesn’t sound entirely optimistic. Due to these, it won’t be surprising to see Hill’s ADP rise while Johnson’s falls.

“Folks. I don't know how else to put this, but the Taysom Hill element to this Saints offense has major potential. Today we saw him being used as a halfback more and more. He had three plays where he was the running back and took tosses to the left and right…He was even a… https://t.co/t2GEy60fR8

— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) June 6, 2024

Last year, Hill finished as the TE13 with a 7.8 half-PPR PPG average. While that doesn’t sound very exciting, and for most TEs in that 12-15 range, it isn’t, Hill’s different. Most tight ends in that 12-15 range lack upside. They get you 6-13 points a week, and that’s it. Hill is not most tight ends. He had six weeks where he finished in the top 10, four weeks inside the top five, and one week as the No. 1 tight end overall. He had four weeks scoring 14 or more points, two weeks scoring more than 18, and one scoring 22 or more.

Yes, he bombed multiple weeks. He didn’t even place inside the top 30 tight ends in six weeks. However, the difference between TE40 and TE15 is about four points, and the difference between TE15 and TE5 is eight. Hill, more so than any other tight end in the 15-20 range, can impact weekly matchups. The same was true in 2022 as well.

He had eight weeks, after which he finished as a top-12 option. That includes six in the top 10, five in the top six, three in the top three, and two No. 1 overall finishes. In 2022, he finished as the TE6 with a 9.2 half-PPR PPG average. How many tight ends being drafted around Hill will give fantasy managers five weeks as a top-five tight end? The answer is most likely none.

Johnson potentially being out opens up another avenue for Hill. Last year, Hill set career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. In 2022, he had just 13 targets, nine receptions, and 77 receiving yards. This past year, that ballooned to 40 targets, 33 receptions, 291 yards, and two touchdowns. He had a five-week span where he racked up 23 targets, 18 receptions, and 143 yards. Those per-game averages across 17 games would equal 78 targets, 61 receptions, and 486 yards. That may not sound like a lot, but combined with annual 85-100 carries and strong red-zone utilization, he’s got the chance to be a top-eight tight end.

Greg Dulcich: TE34, ADP 235

Dulcich essentially missed all of 2023 due to recurring hamstring injuries. He played in just two games and didn’t log a snap count higher than 35%. Fantasy managers will likely have forgotten how good of a prospect he was and how well he played his rookie season. Over his final two seasons at UCLA, Dulcich had 106 targets, 68 receptions, 1,242 yards, and 10 touchdowns. His senior year was his best, however.

In 2021, Dulcich finished sixth in the country in receiving yards by a tight end. His 17.3 yards per reception average ranked second among 45 tight ends with at least 40 targets. Dulcich also averaged 7.0 yards after the catch per reception (eighth highest) and 1.93 yards per route run (16th). Dulcich finished with a 27.3% college dominator, a very impressive total for a tight end. He’s an elite athlete with an 8.24 RAS, which included a 4.69 40-yard dash time. That led to excellent draft capital, being selected in the third round.

Don’t forget about Greg Dulcich & Jelani Woods at the end of your drafts.

Both were drafted relatively high (RD3, 73rd & 80th overall), flashed as rookies, but missed essentially all of YR2 to injury.

Dulcich posted the 5th highest YPG (41.1) by a rookie TE since the year 2000… pic.twitter.com/W1i8a0oL2d

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) February 10, 2024

As a rookie in 2022, Dulcich posted a 17.2% target share (13th highest among qualifying tight ends), 18.6% air yards share (seventh), 10.6 average depth of target (third), 312 unrealized air yards (seventh), 12.5 yards per reception (ninth), 1.21 yards per team pass attempt (11th), and had the third-most deep targets (12). He was TE17 as a rookie with a 7.0 half-PPR PPG. That was with Jerry Jeudy on the roster and Russell Wilson playing far, far worse than he did in 2023.

Considering his collegiate profile, strong rookie season, incredibly low cost of acquisition, and wide-open target hierarchy in Denver, Dulcich is one of the easier tight-end buys late in drafts. He checks off almost every box fantasy managers want in a tight end. He had a productive collegiate career catching the ball with a strong college dominator. He’s an elite athlete who received high draft capital. He showed target-earning potential as a rookie, is a threat after the catch, and has an easy pathway to being the No. 2 target-earner on his team. That’s a buy all day long at his price.

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