Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks - Outlooks and Trends For Week 6

2 months ago by Robert Lorge

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At the beginning of the season, it seemed like fantasy managers would finally see a youth takeover at the tight end position. Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, and Dalton Kincaid were ready to take over. Ultimately, through five weeks, it looks like more of the same. George Kittle and Travis Kelce appear destined to finish in the top 3 again. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

While injuries have decimated the receiver position, fantasy managers have largely gone injury-free at the tight end position, but unfortunately, it hasn't mattered. There have been very few difference-makers at the tight end position thus far this season. Through five weeks, there have been just five 20 half-PPR point performances and eight 15 half-PPR point outings this year from the position. That is utterly disgusting.

This week, we'll be looking at some advanced statistics to get a better read on how to value certain players. These stats are courtesy of FantasyPoints Data Suite, which can be found here. To take advantage of our great premium tools and save yourself some money, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

Total Routes Run Leaders

Rank	Player	Total Routes	Half-PPR PPG
1	Tyler Conklin	160	5.2
2	Colby Parkinson	153	5.3
3	Dalton Schultz	151	3.7
4	Noah Fant	140	4.1
5	Travis Kelce	134	7.0
6	Brock Bowers	131	10.5
7	Kyle Pitts	130	6.6
8	Hunter Henry	128	5.2
9	Pat Freiermuth	123	7.8
10	Zach Ertz	123	5.3
11	Cade Otton	123	4.2
12	Dallas Goedert	118	10.5
13	George Kittle	115	10.5
14	Jake Ferguson	112	8.5
15	Cole Kmet	106	7.8
16	Tucker Kraft	106	9.6

Key Takeaways

Parkinson, from a sheer volume perspective, has a very fantasy-friendly role. The problem is he's not producing. That could signify a player who will start scoring more in the future. However, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua's absence should give an easier path to targets. The concern is that Parkinson has been unable to produce with these two stars not playing. Things are unlikely to get easier when they return.

However, his scoring opportunities could increase. The Rams have had a hard time moving the football and finishing drives. Adding Kupp and Nacua could open up the middle of the field for Parkinson, but these two are such target hogs that it's fair to wonder if there will be enough left over for Parkinson to be fantasy-relevant. Conklin is in a similar situation as Parkinson. The opportunity is there, but the production is not.

Goedert has been a pleasant surprise to start the season, but he might be someone to sell high on. The Eagles have been without A.J. Brown for the past four weeks, and they've missed DeVonta Smith for one game. Their absences have put Goedert into a featured role in their passing offense. With these two players active, however, he'll fall back to No. 3 on the target hierarchy.

Fantasy managers should keep their eye on Henry. The opportunity has been there for him, but the quarterback play has been subpar. That's dragged the entire offense down. With New England switching to Drake Maye this week, Henry could surprise if Maye can bring more upside to the offense.

Route Participation Leaders

Rank	Player	Route Participation Rate	Half-PPR PPG
1	Colby Parkinson	79.7%	5.3
2	George Kittle	77.7%	5.2
3	Trey McBride	77.6%	3.7
4	Dallas Goedert	75.6%	4.1
5	Tyler Conklin	75.5%	7.0
6	Pat Freiermuth	75.0%	10.5
7	Hunter Henry	74.4%	6.6
8	Travis Kelce	73.6%	5.2
9	Zach Ertz	71.1%	7.8
10	Dalton Schultz	69.6%	5.3
11	Kyle Pitts	68.8%	4.4
12	Jake Ferguson	68.7%	10.5
13	Cade Otton	68.0%	13.0
14	Brock Bowers	66.8%	8.5
15	Dalton Kincaid	65.4%	7.7
16	Tucker Kraft	64.6%	9.6

Key Takeaways

Conklin and Parkinson are the only players to rank in the top 5 for total routes and route participation. While Parkinson will soon need to contend with Kupp and Nacua for targets, Conklin doesn't have nearly the target competition in New York. Garrett Wilson is a target-hog, but there's little behind him. There are rumors of a Davante Adams trade, but as of right now, Conklin can potentially finish No. 2 in targets on any given week for the Jets.

Conklin has three straight games with six or more targets. No other tight end has a three-game stretch with six targets this season. Conklin could be a waiver wire darling if the Jets could muster any consistency on offense. As with most tight ends, though, they need touchdowns. Conklin's upside is limited until the Jets' offense starts scoring more. Still, his role is something to pay attention to.

Henry is also in the top 10 of both lists, showcasing his potential if Maye can provide any upside and explosiveness to the Patriots' offense. One name that probably was skipped past, Pat Freiermuth, has been excellent this year. He's worked as the Steelers' No. 2 target-earner and hasn't disappointed. He's been a consistent producer for fantasy managers. If the Pittsburgh passing game could start being a bit more effective, he could become a potential difference-maker.

Ertz is also in the top 10 of both lists, but he's the definition of a floor play. However, you could argue that this is true of every tight end. Jayden Daniels is balling out. Ertz is running a lot of routes. He's getting targeted fairly consistently, but Ertz isn't good anymore.

McBride is one of the best buy-low players at the position and in fantasy football. Seeing McBride at the top will be a common theme as we look at other metrics. When you factor in his place among the top of most of these metrics compared to his half-PPR PPG average, it becomes easy to identify him as a player who will start to score far more points sooner than later.

Total Target Leaders

Rank	Player	Total Targets	Half-PPR PPG
1	Brock Bowers	36	10.5
2	Colby Parkinson	31	5.2
3	Jake Ferguson	30	8.5
4	Travis Kelce	30	7.0
5	Trey McBride	30	6.9
6	George Kittle	29	13.0
7	Dallas Goedert	28	10.5
8	Tyler Conklin	25	5.3
9	Cole Kmet	24	7.7
10	Cade Otton	24	4.4
11	Zach Ertz	24	5.3
12	Hunter Henry	23	5.2
13	Dalton Kincaid	23	6.0
14	Dalton Schultz	22	3.7
15	Pat Freiermuth	22	7.8
16	Kyle Pitts	21	6.6

Key Takeaways

Parkinson, Conklin, Ertz, and Henry have now been in the top 12 in total routes, route participation rate, and total targets. While Parkinson will be held back by two superstar receivers, Conklin and Henry have untapped potential if their respective quarterbacks can start playing better. Ertz is what he is - a floor play. Freiermuth is another player we've touched on who finds himself in the top 15 of all three lists thus far.

Otton makes a surprise appearance here. Otton was a full-time player last year. His snap share and route participation were sky-high. Unfortunately, it never led to any targets. He was the very best wind-sprinter at tight end in 2023. So far in 2024, he's showing some improved target-earning potential. He's still behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but with Rachaad White struggling, there's room for Otton to move into that No. 3 role. He'll still be hit or miss, but with Tampa Bay fully leaning into their passing game and Mayfield playing outstanding, Otton is on the TE2 radar.

Bowers is already the TE1 in dynasty, and he should be considered the TE1 for the rest of the season in redraft leagues. McBride is fifth in total targets but missed last week due to a concussion. Goedert is seventh despite Philly already having their bye, but again, his numbers are inflated by the absences of both receivers.

Target Share Leaders

Rank	Player	Target Share	Half-PPR PPG
1	Trey McBride	25.9%	6.9
2	George Kittle	22.8%	13.0
3	Dallas Goedert	21.2%	10.5
4	Brock Bowers	20.9%	10.5
5	Jake Ferguson	19.7%	8.5
6	Travis Kelce	18.8%	7.0
7	Zach Ertz	17.9%	5.3
8	Colby Parkinson	17.6%	5.2
9	Dalton Kincaid	17.2%	6.0
10	Hunter Henry	16.1%	5.2
11	Pat Freiermuth	16.1%	7.8
12	Cade Otton	15.7%	4.4
13	Cole Kmet	14.1%	7.7
14	Isaiah Likely	13.9%	8.8
15	Tucker Kraft	13.5%	9.6
16	Tyler Conklin	13.2%	5.3

Key Takeaways

If there is a player who can potentially compete with Bowers for the TE1 spot (other than Kittle and Kelce), it's McBride. His target share is solidly ahead of anyone else. Kittle's target share could be slightly inflated due to Deebo Samuel Sr. having missed two games, Christian McCaffrey missing the first five, and a slow start to Brandon Aiyuk, who held out.

Parkinson, Henry, Ertz, and Freiermuth again are in the top 12. Conklin is also top-16. These four players could score much better in the second half. Kelce's numbers have been on the rise since Rashee Rice's injury, and we should expect these numbers to continue to do so.

For all the hype around him this preseason, Kincaid has failed to live up to expectations. He was routinely drafted as a top-5 tight end, but he doesn't find himself in the top-5 of any of these metrics. That shouldn't give fantasy managers much optimism that Kincaid's fantasy season will turn around.

Kmet's numbers may not look great, but they've been trending up recently. During the first two weeks, Chicago utilized a tight end-by-committee approach with Kmet and Gerald Everett. However, Everett's role has shrunk in the past three weeks, and Kmet has taken on a more commanding role. With Keenan Allen struggling, Kmet could solidify himself as Caleb Williams' preferred short-yardage target. With Chicago's schedule in the coming weeks, Kmet is someone to have on rosters.

Target Rate Leaders

Rank	Player	Target Rate	Half-PPR PPG
1	Trey McBride	29.0%	6.9
2	Brock Bowers	27.0%	10.5
3	Jonnu Smith	27.0%	4.2
4	Jake Ferguson	27.0%	8.5
5	George Kittle	25.0%	13.0
6	Dallas Goedert	24.0%	10.5
7	Austin Hooper	23.0%	3.4
8	Cole Kmet	23.0%	7.7
9	Dalton Kincaid	23.0%	6.0
10	Travis Kelce	22.0%	7.0
11	Isaiah Likely	22.0%	8.8
12	Mike Gesicki	22.0%	5.3
13	Colby Parkinson	20.0%	5.2
14	Cade Otton	20.0%	4.4
15	Zach Ertz	20.0%	5.3
16	Tucker Kraft	19.0%	9.8

Key Takeaways

McBride's time is coming—undoubtedly. His utilization metrics are excellent. Buy low or continue starting with confidence. After talking up Henry, Conklin, Parkinson, and Ertz, we see all four ranked much lower than we've seen thus far. They're not being targeted on as many of their routes as others, which is why it's so important they continue running more routes than others.

Ferguson is another player who seems to have better days ahead of him. Otton's peripherals look so much better than they did last year. Don't buy into Mike Gesicki's few big games. He's not running nearly enough routes. His target share is far too low.

Yards Per Route Run Leaders

Rank	Player	YPRR	Half-PPR PPG
1	Dallas Goedert	2.55	10.5
2	Brock Bowers	2.39	10.5
3	Cole Kmet	2.07	7.7
4	Tucker Kraft	2.06	9.6
5	Jake Ferguson	2.04	8.8
6	George Kittle	1.96	13.0
7	Isaiah Likely	1.91	8.8
8	Mike Gesicki	1.84	5.3
9	Jonnu Smith	1.79	4.2
10	Travis Kelce	1.70	7.0
11	Trey McBride	1.68	6.9
12	Dalton Kincaid	1.63	6.0
13	Kyle Pitts	1.48	6.6
14	Pat Freiermuth	1.46	7.8
15	Hunter Henry	1.41	5.2
16	Zach Ertz	1.30	5.3

Key Takeaways

Kraft pops up here in the top 5. He's been one of the NFL's most effective and efficient tight ends. Through five weeks, he's been the best tight end in yards after the catch per reception. He's been terrific, but the problem has been the number of other competent pass-catchers the Packers employ. It's been difficult for him to earn the number of targets to remain consistent week-to-week. However, we've said this about Kittle in the past, and he's constantly overcome this barrier.

Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if Kraft continues to pop. He's one of the few tight ends capable of big plays. This is crucial at the tight end position.

Fantasy managers do not need to bother with Likely, Jonnu Smith, or Mike Gesicki. These players are not getting enough routes.

Expected Half-PPR PPG Leaders

Rank	Player	Expected Half-PPR PPG	Half-PPR PPG	Difference
1	George Kittle	14.6	13.0	-1.6
2	Jake Ferguson	12.6	8.5	-4.1
3	Brock Bowers	12.4	10.5	-1.9
4	Trey McBride	12.2	6.9	-5.3
5	Dallas Goedert	11.0	10.5	-0.5
6	Colby Parkinson	10.9	5.2	-5.7
7	Travis Kelce	10.4	7.0	-3.4
8	Zach Ertz	9.2	5.3	-3.9
9	Tyler Conklin	8.9	5.3	-3.6
10	Cole Kmet	8.8	7.7	-1.1
11	Dalton Schultz	8.0	3.7	-4.3
12	Cade Otton	7.8	4.4	-3.4
13	Dalton Kincaid	7.6	6.0	-1.6
14	Isaiah Likely	7.5	8.8	1.3
15	Hunter Henry	7.4	5.2	-2.2
16	Pat Freiermuth	7.2	7.8	0.6

Key Takeaways

Most of our tight ends have a negative differential between their expected half-PPR PPG and their actual half-PPR PPG. Based on this, we should expect more tight end scoring soon. Only Likely and Freiermuth have positive differentials.

McBride and Parkinson have the biggest negative differentials at -5.3 and -5.7, respectively. Again, McBride is one of the best buy-lows in fantasy football. Ferguson is another tight end fantasy managers should be buying low on. It's wild seeing Kincaid fall outside the top-12 in expected half-PPR PPG. Mark Andrews is undoubtedly the biggest tight end bust, but Kincaid is not far behind. Kyle Pitts is also tied with Kincaid with a 7.2 expected half-PPR PPG average.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight End vs. Week 6 Opponent

	Team	Fantasy Points Allowed	Week 6 Opponent
1	Chiefs	14.3	Bye
2	Rams	12.8	Bye
3	Colts	12.1	Titans
4	Bengals	10.9	Giants
5	Ravens	10.7	Commanders
6	Panthers	10.7	Falcons
7	Vikings	10.3	Bye
8	Packers	10.2	Cardinals
9	Chargers	10.0	Broncos
10	Broncos	9.6	Chargers
11	Saints	9.3	Buccaneers
12	Falcons	8.9	Panthers
13	Steelers	8.5	Raiders
14	Seahawks	8.5	49ers
15	Patriots	8.3	Texans
16	Cardinals	7.9	Packers
17	Bills	7.5	Jets
18	Jaguars	7.5	Bears
19	Raiders	7.4	Steelers
20	Cowboys	7.3	Lions
21	Giants	7.1	Bengals
22	Buccaneers	7.1	Saints
23	49ers	6.7	Seahawks
24	Lions	6.5	Cowboys
25	Bears	5.7	Jaguars
26	Dolphins	5.4	Bye
27	Browns	5.3	Eagles
28	Commanders	5.1	Ravens
29	Eagles	4.3	Browns
30	Texans	4.1	Patriots
31	Jets	4.1	Bills
32	Titans	2.4	Colts

Best Starts of the Week

Trey McBride
Kyle Pitts
Brock Bowers
Dalton Schultz
Tucker Kraft

Worst Starts of the Week

Dalton Kincaid
Hunter Henry
David Njoku
Isaiah Likely

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