Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Picks - Outlooks and Trends For Week 6

October 11, 2024

Rob's tight end fantasy football start 'em, sit 'em picks for Week 6 of the 2024 season. Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 6 lineups?

At the beginning of the season, it seemed like fantasy managers would finally see a youth takeover at the tight end position. Trey McBride, Sam LaPorta, and Dalton Kincaid were ready to take over. Ultimately, through five weeks, it looks like more of the same. George Kittle and Travis Kelce appear destined to finish in the top 3 again. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

While injuries have decimated the receiver position, fantasy managers have largely gone injury-free at the tight end position, but unfortunately, it hasn't mattered. There have been very few difference-makers at the tight end position thus far this season. Through five weeks, there have been just five 20 half-PPR point performances and eight 15 half-PPR point outings this year from the position. That is utterly disgusting.

This week, we'll be looking at some advanced statistics to get a better read on how to value certain players. These stats are courtesy of FantasyPoints Data Suite, which can be found here. To take advantage of our great premium tools and save yourself some money, please use promo code "BOOM" to receive a 10% discount.

Total Routes Run Leaders

Key Takeaways

Parkinson, from a sheer volume perspective, has a very fantasy-friendly role. The problem is he's not producing. That could signify a player who will start scoring more in the future. However, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua's absence should give an easier path to targets. The concern is that Parkinson has been unable to produce with these two stars not playing. Things are unlikely to get easier when they return.

However, his scoring opportunities could increase. The Rams have had a hard time moving the football and finishing drives. Adding Kupp and Nacua could open up the middle of the field for Parkinson, but these two are such target hogs that it's fair to wonder if there will be enough left over for Parkinson to be fantasy-relevant. Conklin is in a similar situation as Parkinson. The opportunity is there, but the production is not.

Goedert has been a pleasant surprise to start the season, but he might be someone to sell high on. The Eagles have been without A.J. Brown for the past four weeks, and they've missed DeVonta Smith for one game. Their absences have put Goedert into a featured role in their passing offense. With these two players active, however, he'll fall back to No. 3 on the target hierarchy.

Fantasy managers should keep their eye on Henry. The opportunity has been there for him, but the quarterback play has been subpar. That's dragged the entire offense down. With New England switching to Drake Maye this week, Henry could surprise if Maye can bring more upside to the offense.

Route Participation Leaders

Key Takeaways

Conklin and Parkinson are the only players to rank in the top 5 for total routes and route participation. While Parkinson will soon need to contend with Kupp and Nacua for targets, Conklin doesn't have nearly the target competition in New York. Garrett Wilson is a target-hog, but there's little behind him. There are rumors of a Davante Adams trade, but as of right now, Conklin can potentially finish No. 2 in targets on any given week for the Jets.

Conklin has three straight games with six or more targets. No other tight end has a three-game stretch with six targets this season. Conklin could be a waiver wire darling if the Jets could muster any consistency on offense. As with most tight ends, though, they need touchdowns. Conklin's upside is limited until the Jets' offense starts scoring more. Still, his role is something to pay attention to.

Henry is also in the top 10 of both lists, showcasing his potential if Maye can provide any upside and explosiveness to the Patriots' offense. One name that probably was skipped past, Pat Freiermuth, has been excellent this year. He's worked as the Steelers' No. 2 target-earner and hasn't disappointed. He's been a consistent producer for fantasy managers. If the Pittsburgh passing game could start being a bit more effective, he could become a potential difference-maker.

Ertz is also in the top 10 of both lists, but he's the definition of a floor play. However, you could argue that this is true of every tight end. Jayden Daniels is balling out. Ertz is running a lot of routes. He's getting targeted fairly consistently, but Ertz isn't good anymore.

McBride is one of the best buy-low players at the position and in fantasy football. Seeing McBride at the top will be a common theme as we look at other metrics. When you factor in his place among the top of most of these metrics compared to his half-PPR PPG average, it becomes easy to identify him as a player who will start to score far more points sooner than later.

Total Target Leaders

Key Takeaways

Parkinson, Conklin, Ertz, and Henry have now been in the top 12 in total routes, route participation rate, and total targets. While Parkinson will be held back by two superstar receivers, Conklin and Henry have untapped potential if their respective quarterbacks can start playing better. Ertz is what he is - a floor play. Freiermuth is another player we've touched on who finds himself in the top 15 of all three lists thus far.

Otton makes a surprise appearance here. Otton was a full-time player last year. His snap share and route participation were sky-high. Unfortunately, it never led to any targets. He was the very best wind-sprinter at tight end in 2023. So far in 2024, he's showing some improved target-earning potential. He's still behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but with Rachaad White struggling, there's room for Otton to move into that No. 3 role. He'll still be hit or miss, but with Tampa Bay fully leaning into their passing game and Mayfield playing outstanding, Otton is on the TE2 radar.

Bowers is already the TE1 in dynasty, and he should be considered the TE1 for the rest of the season in redraft leagues. McBride is fifth in total targets but missed last week due to a concussion. Goedert is seventh despite Philly already having their bye, but again, his numbers are inflated by the absences of both receivers.

Target Share Leaders

Key Takeaways

If there is a player who can potentially compete with Bowers for the TE1 spot (other than Kittle and Kelce), it's McBride. His target share is solidly ahead of anyone else. Kittle's target share could be slightly inflated due to Deebo Samuel Sr. having missed two games, Christian McCaffrey missing the first five, and a slow start to Brandon Aiyuk, who held out.

Parkinson, Henry, Ertz, and Freiermuth again are in the top 12. Conklin is also top-16. These four players could score much better in the second half. Kelce's numbers have been on the rise since Rashee Rice's injury, and we should expect these numbers to continue to do so.

For all the hype around him this preseason, Kincaid has failed to live up to expectations. He was routinely drafted as a top-5 tight end, but he doesn't find himself in the top-5 of any of these metrics. That shouldn't give fantasy managers much optimism that Kincaid's fantasy season will turn around.

Kmet's numbers may not look great, but they've been trending up recently. During the first two weeks, Chicago utilized a tight end-by-committee approach with Kmet and Gerald Everett. However, Everett's role has shrunk in the past three weeks, and Kmet has taken on a more commanding role. With Keenan Allen struggling, Kmet could solidify himself as Caleb Williams' preferred short-yardage target. With Chicago's schedule in the coming weeks, Kmet is someone to have on rosters.

Target Rate Leaders

Key Takeaways

McBride's time is coming—undoubtedly. His utilization metrics are excellent. Buy low or continue starting with confidence. After talking up Henry, Conklin, Parkinson, and Ertz, we see all four ranked much lower than we've seen thus far. They're not being targeted on as many of their routes as others, which is why it's so important they continue running more routes than others.

Ferguson is another player who seems to have better days ahead of him. Otton's peripherals look so much better than they did last year. Don't buy into Mike Gesicki's few big games. He's not running nearly enough routes. His target share is far too low.

Yards Per Route Run Leaders

Key Takeaways

Kraft pops up here in the top 5. He's been one of the NFL's most effective and efficient tight ends. Through five weeks, he's been the best tight end in yards after the catch per reception. He's been terrific, but the problem has been the number of other competent pass-catchers the Packers employ. It's been difficult for him to earn the number of targets to remain consistent week-to-week. However, we've said this about Kittle in the past, and he's constantly overcome this barrier.

Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if Kraft continues to pop. He's one of the few tight ends capable of big plays. This is crucial at the tight end position.

Fantasy managers do not need to bother with Likely, Jonnu Smith, or Mike Gesicki. These players are not getting enough routes.

Expected Half-PPR PPG Leaders

Key Takeaways

Most of our tight ends have a negative differential between their expected half-PPR PPG and their actual half-PPR PPG. Based on this, we should expect more tight end scoring soon. Only Likely and Freiermuth have positive differentials.

McBride and Parkinson have the biggest negative differentials at -5.3 and -5.7, respectively. Again, McBride is one of the best buy-lows in fantasy football. Ferguson is another tight end fantasy managers should be buying low on. It's wild seeing Kincaid fall outside the top-12 in expected half-PPR PPG. Mark Andrews is undoubtedly the biggest tight end bust, but Kincaid is not far behind. Kyle Pitts is also tied with Kincaid with a 7.2 expected half-PPR PPG average.

Fantasy Points Allowed to Tight End vs. Week 6 Opponent

Best Starts of the Week

• Trey McBride
• Kyle Pitts
• Brock Bowers
• Dalton Schultz
• Tucker Kraft

Worst Starts of the Week

• Dalton Kincaid
• Hunter Henry
• David Njoku
• Isaiah Likely

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