Tight Ends Fantasy Football Start 'Em and Sit 'Em For Week 15

If you're reading this, chances are you are officially in the fantasy football playoffs. If that is the case, congratulations. The job, however, isn't done. There are three more weeks until fantasy football glory. To do that, we need to win on the margins.

You'll find my top 20ish rankings for Week 15 in this article. These are broken down into four categories -- must start, strong start, preferred streamer, and desperation start. This week, we'll also identify some tight ends with the best and worst matchups. Fantasy managers should attempt to target or avoid these players.

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Must Starts

1. George Kittle

2. Trey McBride

3. Brock Bowers

4. David Njoku

5. Travis Kelce

Strong Starts

6. T.J. Hockenson

7. Sam LaPorta

8. Jonnu Smith

9. Tucker Kraft

10. Jake Ferguson

Preferred Streamers

11. Evan Engram

12. Cade Otton

13. Mark Andrews

14. Hunter Henry

15. Zach Ertz

Desperation Starts

16. Pat Freiermuth

17. Dalton Kincaid

18. Kyle Pitts

19. Stone Smartt

20. Dalton Schultz

21. Chig Okonkwo

22. Juwan Johnson

Matchups to Upgrade

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Ferguson returned to the lineup this past weekend after missing two games due to a concussion he suffered early in Week 11. During Luke Schoonmaker's three-game stretch as the starter, he had 30 targets, 14 receptions, 144 yards, and one touchdown. He scored 8.6, 13.0, and 5.8 half-PPR points, averaging 9.1 half-PPR PPG. There were concerns Cooper Rush may struggle to keep Dallas's offensive playmakers afloat, but he has been able to do just that.

Ferguson returned to action and immediately reseized the starting role. He ran 28 routes on 35 dropbacks. Schoonmaker ran just nine routes. Ferguson finished with six targets, which was second on the team and was just one behind leader CeeDee Lamb. He finished with just three catches for 32 yards, but the utilization and volume were there. That's a good sign for future value.

In Week 15, Ferguson goes up against the Panthers, who have allowed the most half-PPR PPG to tight ends this season at 14.1. That is quite a bit higher than the seasonal average of the tight ends Carolina has faced. Their seasonal average is 10.8 half-PPR PPG, meaning Carolina is giving up an extra 3.3 to tight ends compared to their seasonal averages. Ferguson is a great play this weekend and is in my top 10.

Stone Smartt, Los Angeles Chargers

Smartt hasn't done much this year, playing behind Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst for most of the year. However, Hurst is on IR, and Dissly is managing a shoulder injury this week. The week before, he was dealing with a groin injury. It's unknown if he'll be able to suit up. Fantasy managers will need to track this. If Dissly does not suit up, Smart is a solid streamer. If Dissly does suit up, I'd advise avoiding both players.

Introducing Stone Smartt. 51-yard touchdown!

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— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2023

The Chargers play the Buccaneers this week. They've been very generous to tight ends this season, giving up 12.2 half-PPR PPG, sixth most in the NFL. Tight ends have scored 1.9 half-PPR points more per game against Tampa Bay than the rest of the season. The Chargers and Buccaneers game has a 46.5-point implied total. There's a strong chance this is a shootout, presenting upside to all offensive players.

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

Okonkwo hasn't done much this season to elicit any confidence from fantasy managers. He's averaging just 4.2 half-PPR PPG. He's scored double digits once. He's been under 5.0 half-PPR points in nine out of 13 games. It's been bad. So, why are we considering potentially starting him in Week 15?

The matchup. Cincinnati's defense has given up the sixth-most passing yards and touchdowns this season. It has also allowed the second-most half-PPR PPG to tight ends at 13.1. Tight ends are scoring 2.35 more half-PPR points per game against Cincinnati than they are the rest of their seasons. Tennessee will be chasing points in this one.

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons

Pitts has been a disaster recently, but if you're desperate and looking for a matchup to target, Pitts has one. The Raiders allow the fourth-most half-PPR PPG to tight ends this season at 12.9. Tight ends are scoring 2.83 more half-PPR points per game against the Raiders than they are the rest of their season.

Matchups to Downgrade

Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is favored by over 15 points this week against the Giants. That seems good, but Baltimore might be on cruise control by the second quarter. The Ravens could win this game with Lamar Jackson not throwing a single pass. That obviously won't happen, but Jackson's passing volume is likely much lower than the rest of the season. It's also entirely possible the starters are done playing by the fourth quarter. Those are the risks.

The Giants allow only 6.9 half-PPR PPG to tight ends this season. That's the second lowest in the NFL. Tight ends have scored 7.9 half-PPR PPG in their non-Giants matchups, so New York is holding the tight ends it has faced to 1.0 half-PPR points per game fewer than the rest of the season.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

The Patriots have a 20.5-point implied total this weekend. That's just 23rd for this week. Their Week 15 matchup is a tough one against Arizona. It has allowed the sixth-fewest half-PPR PPG to tight ends at just 7.9. That's 0.9 half-PPR points fewer per game than they have scored in their other 13 games.

Henry is averaging 7.4 half-PPR PPG, which is solid but unspectacular. The volume has generally been there for Henry. He has eight or more targets in five of Drake Maye's eight starts. The volume is enough to keep him in play as a streamer, but you should lower expectations this week in a tough matchup.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Kincaid has missed Buffalo's last three games, not including the bye week, which came in the middle of that span. That means Kincaid has not played for four weeks. He was limited in practice last week and is expected to return to action this week. It'll be tough -- impossible even -- to start him this week in his first game back. He could be on a snap count, even further limiting his upside.

Even without that risk, Kincaid is tough to trust. He has scored double digits in just two of his 10 games this season. However, Kincaid's volume was trending in the right direction before getting hurt. In his last six games (not counting the Week 10 game he left early), he had 43 targets, averaging 7.2 per game. That kind of volume is not readily available at tight end.

However, will that volume be available once he returns? The last time Kincaid played, Amari Cooper was still warming up to the Buffalo offense and Josh Allen. Cooper is coming off his best game as a Bill, earning 12 targets. With Cooper's ascension, Kincaid's potential snap count, and the matchup, it makes the TE one to avoid.

Detroit is allowing just 5.8 half-PPR PPG to tight ends this season. That is dead last in the NFL. That's 2.84 half-PPR points per game less than their seasonal averages. He's an easy avoid this week until he gets his feet back underneath him.

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