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Antonio Losada looks at ADP variation of tight ends to assess their situations for fantasy football. Which tight ends' average draft positions are on the rise and why?
Ah our old friend, ADP. Average Draft Position indicates the mean position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each fantasy GM has their strategies and values players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). With free agency, the draft well finalized, and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to look at how ADPs vary during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position every few days who are seeing significant fluctuation from where they were the last time we checked to where they are getting drafted now using data from FFPC drafts.
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Fantasy Football Tight Ends - ADP Risers
Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers
The veteran tight end is inching closer to turning 30 years old each passing day and he's getting dangerously close to that moment. I'll meet him at the other end when he does, it's not that bad. Anyway, Everett is not going to put up top-12 numbers at the position in most scenarios next season playing in Los Angeles.
The Chargers are freaking loaded on offense and there are many better options to throw the ball toward than the veteran tight end. That said, the Chargers OC was the man behind Dalton Schultz overpowering, so who knows if he will do the same with Everett.
Everett is the TE1 of the Chargers offense but he projects to a borderline TE1 in terms of overall fantasy production – and that's optimistic. QB Justin Herbert can surely lift him, but it's hard to see him racking up chances with the likes of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, rookie Quentin Johnson, and super-skilled RB Austin Ekeler around him.
As long as the ADP doesn't cross the 120th-OVR threshold, Everett might still retain some value. If it keeps skyrocketing, though, I'd find it hard to draft him.
Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
Speaking from the Broncos camp at the start of June, HC Sean Payton described Dulcich as a "joker" in the offense of Denver ahead of the 2023 season. That's a good start and one of the reasons for Dulcich's ADP rise of late.
Payton said that the team is still trying to come up with the best way of using Dulcich, but he sounded excited about his skill set and he said that the tight end "can run, has got good ball skills," and "his menu is going to be lengthy in the passing game." Uh, oh, the hype.
Dulcich is fast, he is athletic, but he's also a better playmaker than a blocker and hey, that might actually hurt his actual, real-life playing time when the ball gets rolling come the fall and a certain quarterback needs some stout bodies protecting him.
Adam Trautman is Dulcich's main competitor for reps, snaps, and targets, and the depth chart has the former listed above the latter. This is still a fluid situation, which might actually make things even worse for both Trautman and Dulcich if they end up splitting the work and thus their production. The ADP better stop rising or else I won't be buying.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Engram arrived on a moribund Jaguars team last year after spending the prior five years playing for the Giants, and he had his best season since his 2017 rookie campaign. Engram scored more PPR points than ever before through 17 games (176.9) and posted career marks in receptions (73), yards (766), and catch rate (74.5%) to go with his second-most touchdowns (four) scored in a single season.
The Jags will have Calvin Ridley available next year after returning from his gambling suspension. That's definitely going to bring some changes to Jacksonville's offense, as he will have Trevor Lawrence looking his way more often than not.
Marvin Jones (WR3 in Jacksonville last season) is gone and so is TE Dan Arnold, with the latter leaving a huge hole at the tight end position that Jacksonville partially filled by drafting Brenton Strange. Forget about the rookie taking anything from Engram.
Engram is safe to produce next year under an improved Lawrence and with more weapons spread across the field that could help the TE in certain situations. It's safe to say the ADP rise isn't surprising and probably will keep going up a bit more through the next few weeks and months.
The only concern at this point is his absence from OTAs a few days ago after getting tagged by the Jaguars earlier this offseason. He wants money and a long-term deal and both sides have until mid-July to reach a middle ground. He's a tight end, so they will inevitably agree to something eventually. No worries.
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