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Jorge's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Week 8's Thursday Night Football Falcons vs. Panthers matchup. His daily fantasy football advice and value plays.
Week 8 has arrived and we kick off this new week of NFL football with an NFC South clash as the Atlanta Falcons travel north to take on the Carolina Panthers. This game has an under/over of 49 with the Panthers being favored by 2.5 points.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on October 29th (Week 8). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!
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DFS Quarterbacks
This could be a big offensive night which means both quarterbacks are in play. Matt Ryan struggled in the week 5 matchup against Carolina as he only completed 56% of his passes for 226 yards and an interception. We do have to factor in that he did not have one of his big offensive weapons in Julio Jones so that would aid in why he didn't have a monster game like we would have hoped. Ryan has actually performaed well on the season as he has thrown for over 2,000 yards and has 12 passing touchdowns while only throwing three total interceptions. The Panthers Defense has been solid against opposing defenses this season as they are only allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 231 yards per game but are allowing opposing offenses to score 24 points per game. With a fully healthy offense for this matchup, Ryan could have a better night than what we saw in week 5 and would make for a great play in all formats.
On the other side of this game sits Teddy Bridgewater who had a great game against the Falcons in week 5. He threw two passing touchdowns while also completing 75% of his passes for 313 yards. Bridgewater has been very steady for this Panthers offense and will only get better once McCaffrey returns from the IR. He has completed over 70% of his passes on the season while throwing eight passing touchdowns and five interceptions. This is a very juicy matchup for Bridgewater as the Falcons Defense ranks 31st overall as they allow opposing offenses to throw for 337 yards per game while also allowing 29.6 points scored per game. This could be another big night for the Panthers offense which means Bridgewater could rack up some serious fantasy points in this matchup.
Analysis: Both quarterbacks are in play as they are in good form and this could be a back and forth game. Bridgewater torched the Falcons defense in their week 5 matchup and it would be tough to think that he wouldn't be able to do it again.
DFS Running Backs
The running back position will be a key spot for this showdown slate. Christian McCaffrey has been on injured reserve for most of the season and was officially taken off of IR so we could see a return to the field for McCaffrey. If he does, it would most likely not be for the full lead back duties as we could see the Panthers slowly work him back into the fold as second-string running back Mike Davis has done a good job filling in as the starter in McCaffrey's absence. Over the past four weeks, Davis has averaged 60.5 yards on the ground while seeing an average of six targets per game. If McCaffrey is ruled out for this Thursday night game, Davis will absorb the lead-back duties one final time which would make him a top play on the slate due to the pure volume that he could see. Earlier in the season, Davis went for 29 DK points against the Panthers as he hauled in nine catches and had a receiving touchdown while also recording 89 yards on the ground. The Falcons have been very stingy against the run as they are holding opponents to just 92.4 yards per game so for McCaffrey and Davis to have big games, they will need to see opportunities in the passing game.
The Falcons have gotten solid production from Todd Gurley II as he has been the main back for this Falcons offense. While he is only averaging close to just 70 yards per game, Gurley has excelled in finding the end-zone as he has recorded seven rushing touchdowns throughout the first seven weeks of the season. Another thing that sticks out about Gurley is his overall rushing attempts. So far, the Falcons have given him 122 rushing attempts which is second overall in the entire NFL. He is seeing heavy volume and with Carolina allowing 124 yards on the ground, Gurley looks to be a great play in all formats. Brian Hill has been backing up Gurley and even though he hasn't seen a heavy workload, he does get several targets a game which makes him worth a glance in large tournaments.
Analysis: If CMC is good to go, both Panthers' backs are in play but mostly tournament plays. If CMC is out, Davis looks to be a great play in all formats. Gurley looks to be the safest choice out of all three main backs while Brian Hill looks to be a large tournament value play.
DFS Wide Receivers
The receivers will be big targets on this slate so getting these pieces right will certainly be a factor if you're looking to take down a tournament. The Falcons have a very tough receiving tandem in Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley and both are certainly in play. Ridley has emerged as the top receiving threat on the Falcons depth chart as he leads the team in receiving touchdowns (6), receptions (40), and receiving yards (615). Julio Jones has taken a small backseat to ridley but he looks to be healthy heading into this game which should not be ignored. When Jones is truly healthy, he still has the ability to produce big-time numbers and has very good success against the Panthers in his career. Jones missed the week 5 matchup against the Panthers which aided in Ridley having a monster game as he racked up 24.6 DK points. If looking for more of a tournament play from the Falcons receiving groups, the slot receiver for the Falcons has been Russell Gage. Gage has done a great job being a complementary option to both Jones and Ridley and has served as a safety blanket for Ryan in the passing game. He is tied for the second-most receptions on the team and holds a 15% target share which is the second-highest on the team as well.
The Panthers have themselves a good trio of receivers led by Robby Anderson. Anderson has emerged as the top receiving option for Carolina as he has racked up 640 yards through the first seven weeks of the season. He has seen the most targets and holds a team target share of 25% but has only found the endzone once. D.J. Moore has been a strong complement to Anderson as he ranks second on the team in targets (53) and receptions (31) but leads the team with three receiving touchdowns. Both Moore and Anderson had strong games against Atlanta in week 5 as they both produced over 19+ DK points in that matchup earlier this season and we could see a similar outcome this week. The third receiving threat for the Panthers is Curtis Samuel who doesn't see quite the volume or attention that Anderson and Moore receive. He has really good speed and is always viewed as a big-play threat but due to the lack of sheer volume, he is better off being a tournament play on this slate.
Analysis: Ridley, Jones, and Anderson look to be the three safest receiving options on this slate and can be used in all formats. Moore is also a great option and carries a tad more risk but is still cash game viable. Both Gage and Samuel could be lower owned which makes them tournament plays only.
DFS Tight Ends
There really is one main tight end target to focus on in this showdown slate. Hayden Hurst has seen consistent targets and has taken over the main tight end spot that Austin Hooper left behind as he left for Cleveland in the offseason. Hurst has a 74% snap share which is the third-highest snap percentage on the Falcons offense and he also commands the third-highest target percentage at 11.1%. Hurst is second on the team with three receiving touchdowns and is the safest tight end play on the slate. Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham back up Hayden Hurst at the tight end position but have only combined for three receptions all season long so they are best fading on this slate.
The Panthers have not made the tight end position a focal point in their offense like we have been used to in the past. Ian Thomas is seeing a 63% snap share while Chris Manhertz is seeing a 54% snap share but they have a combined 17 total targets through the first seven weeks of the season. Thomas does have one touchdown reception but when factoring in that that he has hauled in seven total catches on the season, he is better off as a tournament punt play but knowing that he carries a very low floor.
Analysis: Hurst is by far the safest tight end play on the slate and can be trusted in all formats. Ian Thomas has been very underwhelming and tight ends in this Panthers offense are very hard to trust and would be best to either look as punt plays in tournaments or just fade in general.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
Even with this game total set for 49 points, it seems best to fade either defense in this game. Each team is scoring over 23 points per game and there are plenty of playmakers in this game on both teams. This same matchup hit the under in week 5 as they combined for just 39 points scored but with both teams looking to be at almost full strength from injuries, that could help open up both offenses even more which means more points. Both teams have great kickers and have been producing on an individual basis. Joey Slye for Carolina has seen 20 field goal attempts and has converted 17 of those which means the Panthers struggle converting drives into touchdowns and rely on Slye's foot to generate points. The same could be said for the Falcons as they rely on the foot of Younghoe Koo who has been exceptional going 15 for 16 on all field goal attempts so far this year. Both kickers are in play and could be viable in tournament lineups.
Analysis: With this potentially being a high scoring game, it might be best to fade both defenses. With the offenses projected to do well, that means the kickers could be in play for both extra point opportunities and field goal opportunities.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!
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