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The 2023 NFL offseason is already underway. Several players have been franchise tagged, countless more have been released, and Derek Carr has already found a new home in New Orleans. All the while, rumors, draft hype, and trade chatter continues to swirl left and right.
Before we get too carried away by potential moves that could occur when free agency begins later this month, we should reflect on what was an incredible season of football in 2022.
Here are three winners and three losers from the 2022 campaign.
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Winner: Kansas City Chiefs
There's no question here. The Chiefs stormed into 2022 and did not miss a beat despite shipping off Tyreek Hill to Miami. Kansas City didn't get exceptional production from new wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Skyy Moore, but Patrick Mahomes still found a way. Armed with a strong offensive line, the league's best tight end, and an up-and-coming rookie running back, the Chiefs' offense continued to look like the best in the league.
Of course, a team is only as good as its weakest link. The Chiefs' defense wasn't elite by any means, but they did enough to fend off opposing threats, including the Cincinnati Bengals and Philadelphia Eagles, when it mattered most. Anchoring the unit was Chris Jones, who had 15.5 sacks and two forced fumbles en route to making his fourth consecutive Pro Bowl. Kansas City finished the year with a DVOA of 1.4 percent, putting them right in the middle of the NFL rankings.
The Chiefs' class of impending free agents is headlined by Smith-Schuster and tackle Orlando Brown Jr. Both are impact players, but with Kansas City hovering right around the salary cap before restructuring contracts and adjusting their roster, they should find ways to re-sign or replace them. The Chiefs are poised to be one of the NFL's most powerful teams for a long time.
Loser: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over the past few seasons, the Buccaneers have found ways to stay under the cap while unloading money to keep their core intact. This strategy was intended to fetch one more Lombardi trophy before things fell apart. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers didn't get much production in their first year post-Bruce Arians. Tampa Bay did sneak into the playoffs, but only because their 8-9 record wasn't quite as pitiful as the rest of the NFC South.
The Buccaneers ultimately suffered a first-round exit at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys in what turned out to be Tom Brady's last NFL game. Simply put, the 2022 season should be viewed as an enormous failure for the Buccaneers organization.
This winter, Tampa Bay already lost the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Within weeks, they'll lose defensive weapons Lavonte David, Akiem Hicks, Mike Edwards, Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and William Gholston to free agency. Undeniably, that's an enormous list of subtractions for a team that cannot afford to get any worse. Things are certainly trending down in Tampa Bay.
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars
For two years in a row, the Jaguars finished in the cellar of the NFL and secured a pair of No. 1 picks. This year, though, aided by talented first-year head coach Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence took a historic step forward, earning a spot in the Pro Bowl and leading the Jaguars to the AFC Divisional Round.
Of course, the former Clemson star couldn't do it alone. The Jaguars received an enormous boost from an offseason that consisted of aggressive spending. Jacksonville shored up its roster by signing Brandon Scherff, Foyesade Oluokun, Folorunso Fatukasi, Darious Williams, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram last March. These players all made a notable impact down the stretch for the Jaguars.
In 2022, the Jaguars' offense ranked eighth in EPA per play on offense (0.045) and 12th in EPA per play on defense (-0.020). This was a massive improvement considering the squad finished in the bottom five in both categories just one year prior. Jacksonville's offense also had a 7.7 percent DVOA (ninth-best) while finishing top six in success rate, dropback EPA, and dropback success rate. Armed with their own picks in each of the first five rounds of the draft, as well as four acquired picks from Rounds 4 to 7, the Jaguars are prepared to build on their success in 2023.
Loser: Arizona Cardinals
Things fell apart for the Cardinals in 2022. Kliff Kingsbury entered the season on the hot seat and finished the season unemployed. J.J. Watt retired, Rodney Hudson is on the way out, and it looks like DeAndre Hopkins could be dealt to another team. There are also questions at the quarterback position since Kyler Murray might not be ready for Week 1.
Believe it or not, James Conner was the main bright spot for the Cardinals' offense. While he isn't getting any younger, he has proven to be efficient as a runner and receiver, allowing Arizona to direct its resources toward other positions in the draft and free agency. The Cardinals also have to love what they saw from Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Greg Dortch, who all stepped up in big ways when healthy.
Despite several players showing promise, the Cardinals lost 13 games, which tied a franchise record and marked an enormous disappointment just one year removed from their 11-win campaign. Arizona will now move forward with fewer key veterans, but they do have a pair of valuable weapons in the No. 3 pick and new head coach Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals aren't heading for a full-scale rebuild, but they need to brace for a couple of bad seasons before things turn around.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals
Remember when the Bengals started 0-2 and social media went crazy, spewing theories that Cincinnati's big 2021 was a fluke? Well, they responded by going 12-2 over the remainder of the season, winning hard-fought games against teams like the Chiefs, Buccaneers, and Patriots. Even their final game of the season—an AFC Championship nail-biter in Kansas City—came down to a difference of just three points.
One could argue that the Bengals had the NFL's best offense, totaling 25.7 points per game and a 14.2 percent DVOA. Much of the praise belongs to Joe Burrow, who helped lead Cincinnati to a 0.153 EPA (fifth-best) and 50.9 percent success rate (third-best) on dropbacks. While stars like Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon delivered the production we all expected, perhaps we can credit some lower-level impact players for truly taking this unit to the next level.
For example, Samaje Perine contributed 452 rushing yards, 322 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns while earning an 89.9 fumble grade, 77.3 drop grade, and 73.8 pass block grade from PFF. Meanwhile, newcomer Hayden Hurst was effective when healthy, amassing 555 yards, three touchdowns, a 79.3 percent reception rate, and an 85.6 PFF drop grade.
Defensively, the Bengals made noteworthy strides. D.J. Reader and Trey Hendrickson stood out with impressive pass rush metrics while Germaine Pratt was phenomenal in coverage. Logan Wilson and Jessie Bates III also had big seasons, but the latter will likely find a new home during free agency.
Unfortunately for the Bengals, a poor offensive line held them back. This historically weak unit crumbled even more due to injury, finishing 31st in pass protection and 21st in run blocking, according to PFF. In fact, of PFF's 85 highest-graded NFL linemen, zero were Bengals. In order for the Bengals to improve and have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, they need to find more protection for Burrow, their talented ringleader and former No. 1 pick.
Loser: Denver Broncos
The Broncos were one of the saddest storylines throughout the entire 2022 NFL season. The two offseason storylines that brought fans the most hope—hiring Nathaniel Hackett and trading for Russell Wilson—proved to be the biggest failures, at least for the time being. Denver went all-in to compete with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Davante Adams, and Austin Ekeler only to finish in the basement of the AFC West once again.
When all was said and done, Denver's offense tallied -0.078 EPA per play (sixth-worst in the NFL) and a woeful 39.5 percent success rate (third-worst). Wilson was at the center of the team's problems, notching a 66.2 PFF grade that ranked worse than Sam Darnold, Colt McCoy, and Nathan Peterman. The Broncos' receivers also stalled, partly due to Wilson, partly due to poor talent, and perhaps also as a result of injury. The lone bright spot for this unit was its mediocre offensive line, but their success can't be celebrated because of the incompetent performance that surrounded them courtesy of the skill position players.
On a positive note, the Broncos did boast a strong defense, ranking in the 75th percentile of the NFL with their 76.2 PFF grade. Former first-round pick Patrick Surtain II continues to look like a big star after racking up two interceptions, seven pass breakups, and a PFF coverage grade of 86.7. Opposing quarterbacks completed just 59.4 percent of passes and recorded an 84.0 rating when throwing at Surtain. The defense will undergo some subtractions this offseason with Alex Singleton, Dre'Mont Jones, and Kareem Jackson headed for free agency, but for the most part, this unit projects to be Denver's bright spot for quite some time.
With a strong defense in tow, some stability at quarterback (albeit subpar), and a flashy new head coach in Sean Payton, one would expect that the Broncos could turn things around quickly. However, Denver's culture doesn't seem like one that would attract key free agents, and they were stripped of their early-round picks by acquiring Wilson and Payton. It's hard to see how the Broncos will make enough additions to adequately compete in the AFC West. Therefore, they should remain in the basement of the division (and the NFL as a whole) for quite some time.
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