RADIO
Do you remember Jerome James?
James was a 7-1, center who averaged 4.9 points and 3.5 rebounds a game. Yet, in the first round of the 2005 NBA playoffs, James was able to turn a 17.2 points and 9.4 rebounds average into a 5-year, $30 million contract.
Thanks Isiah Thomas.
The Illusionists
James became a cautionary tale. The contract-year "illusionist." A player who has underperformed throughout his career, but would put enough games together to catch a general manager's eye and get the one big contract. Only to go back to being the same subpar player once he started to cash those checks.
The contract-year player isn't the only one who can mislead. There's the prime-time performer as well.
Rajon Rondo seemed to be the biggest abuser of this in recent memory. Rondo would consistently perform better in nationally televised games. Prime-time games were also where Rondo frequently visited the triple-double.
Ever since Ice Cube rapped, "Last week messed around and got a triple-double," on the seminal rap single "It Was A Good Day," what was painfully obvious before now became legendary. Getting a triple-double--whether it was in a pick-up game after eating "breakfast with no hog" or on an NBA court--could thrust you into legendary status.
This was certainly true last year when Russell Westbrook broke what was thought to be an untouchable Oscar Robertson record. Westbrook finished the year with 42 triple-doubles, averaging 31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds and 10.4 assists. Despite a phenomenal year, many accused Westbrook of stat chasing, attempting to devalue his historic season because his Thunder team managed just 47 wins. The only problem with this theory was...everything. The Thunder won more times than not when Westbrook hit a triple-double. He also led the league in box plus/minus (BPM) and value over replacement player (VORP). There was no illusion. Westbrook had one of the greatest seasons ever.
There are certain names we trust. Players who have performed at a high enough level, with consistent stats yearly that we start unconsciously on our fantasy team. You need to be aware of a certain group, however. "The illusionist" can have a negative affect on a team's performance. As more and more franchises rely on analytics to help mold player-personnel, you want to make sure you have the right players like Westbrook, and not those that may lose playing time--or value--based on poor advanced metrics.
For this exercise, we will focus players who negatively affect their team. As a fantasy owner, you should be aware that this could also be very bad for your squad in the future.
Carmelo Anthony
Anthony has always been hailed as a scorer. Someone who could get buckets from any position on the court, with or without the ball. With Oklahoma City this season his numbers reflect the worst start to a season in his career.
Carmelo's numbers are down in every statistical category. He is averaging 26.8 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.2 steals and 2.3 assists per 100 possessions. He's not only down, outside of rebounds, his numbers are the worst they've been in his entire career.
Despite those stats, it has not affected Melo's outlook or aggressiveness.
Anthony is still in the top-25 in shot attempts and still gets a little over 33 minutes per game. Both are good for fantasy owners.
Where it could get dicey is if OKC chooses to make some adjustments based on analytics. Anthony has a -3.4 BPM and -0.3 VORP. To put it into layman's terms, Anthony affects the Thunder negatively when on the court. Leaving every Anthony fantasy owner feeling a little bit like Lala Anthony.
Hassan Whiteside
All owners are probably holding on to Whiteside as he recovers from the most extended absence due to a bruised knee in the history of the NBA (that may be a little hyperbolic). Whiteside's numbers are really good--when healthy. In the 15 games he's played, the big man has averaged 28 points and 23.9 rebounds per 100 possessions. The rebound mark is the most for anyone who has played more than one game this season. Whiteside has and will continue to be a top-30 player.
There is some cause for concern, however.
Whiteside is signed through the 2020 season after inking a monstrous contract in 2016. As the cornerstone of the organization, it makes sense for the Heat to limit his minutes going forward. So far this year he's gone from 32 minutes in 2016-17 to 26 minutes this season. His BPM (-2.2) and VORP (o.o) are also down this season.
Knees and 7-footers are a tricky subject. While Whiteside will be chasing stats and bringing in numbers while he's on the court. How long he's there may be the real question fantasy owners will have to answer.
Andrew Wiggins
It seemed like this was the year the former number one pick was going to finally make the leap to superstardom. In Wiggins' first three years in the league his points per 100 possessions jumped from 23.8 to 29.7 to 32.2 last season. So far this season, Wiggins has taken a step back scoring only 24.8 points per 100 possessions.
One might point to Jimmy Butler's addition as the main cause for his decline, but that's not the case. His field goal percentage has dropped from 45 percent last year to 43 percent this year, while his three point percentage has dropped from 35 to 30.
Luckily for owners, Wiggins' minutes have not dropped. He is consistently producing points, but at what cost?
Much like the two stars referenced above, his advanced metric stats are worrisome. Wiggins BPM (-2.7) and VORP (-0.2) are bad--like really bad.
Despite those numbers, Wiggins is still a primary option on a good Minnesota team. The Butler, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jeff Teague, Wiggins nucleus have the potential to be explosive and very dangerous. The pressure is on head coach Tom Thibodeau to find a way to get there.
At the end of the day, it's not the numbers that lie, but the players.
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