January 9, 2018

Wei Sallas takes a look at three fantasy basketball stars with high usage rates for Week 13. What are their fantasy basketball outlooks going forward?

In a game when there is only one ball and 10 players, the most coveted player in fantasy basketball is the player who wants the ball the most. Sometimes this can be a really bad thing (See: Bryant, Kobe - 2015-16), most of the time these players consistently are found at the top of fantasy basketball's rankings. They are Fantasy Basketball's Alphas.

The easiest way to decipher who these players are is to look at advanced metrics and pinpoint those players  who have high usage rates. Usage rate calculates what percentage of team plays a player was involved in while he was on the floor, provided that the play ends in one of the three true results: field-goal attempt, free-throw attempt or turnover.

In other words, the higher the usage rate the more involved that player is in the offense. The more involved, the better probability he will add to his fantasy value.

James Harden

When the Rockets "traded" for Chris Paul this off-season there was uncertainty on how it would affect Harden. The guard was coming off the most prolific year of his career. Harden led the league in assists per game (11.2) and was second in points per game (29.1). Most assumed Paul would take on the role of facilitator in head coach Mike D'Antoni's high powered "seven seconds or less" offense.

Thanks to an early Paul injury, nothing has much changed in Harden's output this season. He's second in assists per game (9.1) while leading the league in scoring (32.3).  Interestingly enough, Harden's usage rate has gone up with ball-dominant point guard Paul now serving as his back court mate.

Hard to know how Harden and Paul will work together after the all-star break when both are presumably healthy. At this point, though, the rate at which Harden has a direct influence on the end result of a play is at a historically high level.

Russell Westbrook

The reigning king of usage rate has even more weapons at his disposal this season, but it has only minimally affected his overall fantasy value. Both Carmelo Anthony and Paul George were added to Oklahoma City to give Westbrook a better chance of advancing in the playoffs. Despite more mouths to feed, Westbrook 0.4 rebounds away from averaging a triple-double for the second straight season. His usage rate is still at an elite level and he leads the league in assists.

There were of course, growing pains. Playing with two top-tier talents made Westbrook hesitate on how his game would adapt, which obviously affected his performance.

"I think early on, I was just trying to figure it out, man," said Westbrook. "I was trying to make sure that everybody was comfortable, everybody was doing exactly what needed to be done.

OKC is starting to figure it out, which should frighten NBA opponents and delight Westbrook fantasy owners. He is taking less shots, less ill-advised threes. The Thunder's more open game has increased drives to the rim, and more opportunities to attack.

As long as Westbrook's usage rate continues to hover in the 30s, expect more of the same from one of the most feared playmakers in all of basketball. Once George and Anthony figure out their role as well, it can lead to only better times for all three in fantasy basketball and their standing in the NBA's Western Conference.

Kristaps Porzingis

With Anthony gone, the question of how well Porzingis would adapt into the role of Alpha was unknown. Would he fold under the New York lights? Or would he seize the opportunity. Head Coach Jeff Hornacek has some-what taken it out of the Latvian's hand by funneling almost everything through him. His usage rate as of January 8, 2018 was 32.5. That's almost twice the average.

editing today's video now. Porzingod HYPE#Knicks pic.twitter.com/OBGFFu2rpB

— BBALLBREAKDOWN (@bballbreakdown) November 14, 2017

Porzingis is averaging career highs in points, field goal and free throw attempts as well as blocks. While his usage percentage has leapt from eight points. New York's big men have reaped the rewards as well, Enes Kanter and Kyle O'Quinn are having career years, and Courtney Lee is scoring at a career high 13.5 points per game.

The burden seems to be taking its toll on Porzingis however. Since Christmas, he’s averaging 19 points on 40 percent shooting from the field and only 26 percent from three. The Knicks are committed to making Porzingis their main attraction, and only time will tell if Porzingis can live up to the billing and deliver. While one's usage rate signifies how much affect they have on the outcome of a particular play, that's not always a good thing. The positive is players like Porzingis and other Alphas will have more opportunities than others.

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