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Sam Chinitz looks at three young hitters who are positioned to breakout earlier than expected. These players could be value selections in fantasy baseball drafts ahead of the 2020 MLB season.
MLB hitters often tend to experience their best seasons between ages 26 and 29 years old. Even so, many players have breakout seasons before that peak. The cheapest path to talent acquisition is by successfully targeting players before they have their first big year and this article will take a look at three players who could do so this year.
Since many young breakout candidates are current or former top prospects, not all come at a discount on draft day. Some of these talented youngsters have had underwhelming careers thus far, and recognizing the potential of these cheap assets can pay significant dividends for fantasy teams.
For this article, we'll define a breakout season is one in which the hitter has his most valuable fantasy season to date by a significant margin and is worth rostering in most leagues;. Whether it be through more regular playing time, improved per-game production, or a combination of the two, the hitters listed below have an unusually high chance of breaking out this season given their age and should be closely monitored by fantasy owners.
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Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR)
25 years old
Tellez is fighting for a roster spot with the Blue Jays this year, but the 25-year-old is a breakout candidate after posting a .742 OPS over 111 games in 2019. Last season, Tellez posted a 90.7 mph average exit velocity to go along with a 41.8% hard-hit rate and a 13.2% barrel rate, helping him earn an impressive .434 xwOBA on contact. However, even with near-elite quality of contact, Tellez wound up with a middling .332 xwOBA, held down by a 28.4% K-rate.
Unsurprisingly, Tellez owns a poor plate approach with a 40% chase rate and a 64.9% z-swing rate, with contact skills that are no better (70.5% contact rate, 81.1% z-contact rate). Encouragingly though, Tellez has spent the offseason working to improve his contact skills by tweaking his swing and adjusting his training regimen.
If Tellez had instead posted a 25% strikeout rate last season, he would’ve put an additional 14 balls in play. That may not sound like much, but based on his career average BABIP it would have resulted in an 11-point increase in his batting average. And if Tellez’s hit-distribution had remained constant, his slugging percentage would have increased 21-points to a .470 SLG.
Combined with the likelihood that Tellez’s performance suffered from bad luck last season after posting a .267 BABIP and an xwOBA that was 24-points higher than his wOBA, Tellez’s potential contact improvements suggest that he has a relatively high chance of breaking out in 2020. Fantasy owners should be wary of investing a significant amount Tellez on draft day (and most shouldn’t have to given his 453 ADP) because of his lack of guaranteed playing time, but Tellez’s early-season performance should be monitored, and he may deserve restoring if he shows signs of an improved contact-rate.
Victor Reyes (OF, DET)
25 years old
Reyes offers solid contact skills (81.6% contact rate) and an aggressive plate approach (51.5% swing rate) that help provide him with a reasonably high floor, and his developing power gives him significant upside in 2020. While his power metrics are generally lacking, with an 86.4 mph average exit velocity and a 30.8% hard-hit rate, his power is trending in the right direction.
Reyes put on 10 pounds of muscle coming into last season, and it came with a 2.4 mph increase in his average exit velocity and a five-point point increase in his xwOBA on contact. Encouragingly, Reyes has reportedly spent this offseason working to add even more muscle, which could provide him with an additional power burst this year.
Although Reyes is avoiding a major swing change to hit more balls in the air, he did see a spike in fly balls late last season. If Reyes can maintain his fly-ball bump into 2020, then his power output could also see additional improvements.
Overall, Reyes has the potential to see his OPS jump over .820 this year if his power output increases enough. Combined with his potential to steal more than 15 bases over a full season (9 in 69 games last year ), Reyes is a breakout candidate worth investing in this year.
Gavin Lux (2B, LAD)
22 years old
Lux had a relatively unimpressive major league debut last season with a .705 OPS over 23 games, but his performance should improve significantly in 2020. The first important aspect to note about Lux’s 2019 major league performance was how unlucky he was.
Had he qualified, Lux's 42-point difference between his wOBA and xwOBA would've ranked third and his 48-point difference between BA and xBA would have ranked first. Lux could also see his strikeout rate fall from 29.3% to around 25% after posting an 11.4% swinging-strike rate and 41.1% swing-rate last season. Furthermore, Lux’s 6.4% HR/FB ratio was at least four points too low based on his batted-ball profile.
There are two caveats to note about relying on luck to predict a Lux breakout though: shifts and his BABIP. Defenses shifted on 36.6% of Lux’s plate appearances last season, and his wOBA dropped to .266 in those situations, partly due to his 10% oppo-rate on ground-balls. Lux also posted an already higher-than-average .327 BABIP last year. For Lux's average to have actually reached his .288 xBA, he would've needed to run an unsustainable .398 BABIP (without adjusting for home runs).
In addition to luck, Lux has a couple of ways to reasonably improve his 2020 performance. Lux never went to the opposite field less than 26% of the time in the minor leagues but posted just a 17.6% oppo-rate in the majors last season, making him unusually susceptible to shifts. But Lux may have made a swing adjustment to add power and pull the ball more often last year. If that's the case, then Lux might also see a power bump in 2020.
Based on his bad luck from last season, expected adjustments, and potential improvements, Lux appears capable of posting above an .800 OPS, with the potential to eclipse .900 this season. Given he's likely to post double-digits in home-runs and stolen-bases with regular playing time, Lux is an attractive breakout candidate this season.
