RADIO
Knowing When to Pass
I’m not a big fan of a “Do Not Draft” list. Depending on the depth of a league, and how far a player falls, even Jarrod Saltalamacchia can find a loving home. But regardless of how a fantasy manager measures value, some guys just aren’t worth what you’d have to pay. If you’re looking to spend your money wisely on draft day, I’d steer clear of the catchers on this list at their current ADP, unless they drop to where the value is too good to pass up.
Devin Mesoraco (Average ADP: 79.8)
Devin Mesoraco's stock is through the roof this spring, and with good reason. He's coming off of a monster season with 25 HR, 80 RBI and hit .273, and that was all in less than 400 AB. Mesoraco will be surrounded by Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto in the Cincinnati Reds lineup, but now with his pockets a bit heavier, his responsibilities will increase dramatically and some aren't so sure what they can expect from him.
He ended the 2014 season with a 20.5 HR/FB percentage and had a career HR/FB of 10 percent prior to 2014. Only four hitters have been able to go back-to-back seasons with a HR/FB rate over 20 percent. I do think Mesoraco will have a good year, and I hope so too as a Reds fan, but I can't justify taking him at his current ADP.
Salvador Perez (Average ADP: 111.8)
Another catcher who's stock seems to be rising is Salvador Perez, but I'm not exactly convinced on this one either. Part of the reason he's becoming a more attractive option is that fact that he's going to be getting more starts at DH this season to try and save his knees. But Perez will also be getting more days off this year, after wearing down in the second half of last season, hitting just .229/.236/.360 and starting 158 games last year including the post-season. Personally I think he will have another pretty good year, 15 HR, 70 RBI and a .250 AVG, but the price is too steep compared to other mid-range options at the position.
Yadier Molina (Average ADP: 127.2)
Yadier Molina is a bounce-back candidate after a mediocre 2014 campaign posting seven HR, 38 RBI and hitting .282. And while it's true that he never fully recovered from tearing a ligament in his thumb and missing seven weeks, that doesn't account for the half of a season he played prior to the injury.
His slugging percentage was 75 points lower than his career average before the injury last year, and he is getting somewhat long in the tooth. Even though he may only be 32, that's an old 32. He came into the league at 21 and was catching 130+ games a year by 26, and gets significantly less rest than most catchers. This is a case of risk-reward, and at his current ADP I'd rather take that risk on someone else.
