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Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) analyzes the rookie pitcher landscape of 2023 between those that have arrived and those en waiting to give readers the best bets to help lead to a fantasy baseball championship.
Several highly-touted arms debuted and busted recently (Pfaadt, Stone) while others have been awesome (Bryce Miller, Bobby Miller). What should make of the next crop of young arms to come up?
Which of these young pitchers looks good under the hood? And which of them are showing signs that they could struggle?
Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) analyzes the rookie pitcher landscape of 2023 between those that have arrived and those that are still waiting to give readers the best bets to help lead to a fantasy baseball championship.
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Top Rookie Starting Pitchers
Bryce Miller - Seattle Mariners
Bryce Miller's start to the season is nothing short of stellar. His 1.15 ERA and 0.51 WHIP are pristine while his most impressive stat may be allowing just three walks in 31 and 1/3rd IP. Obviously, Miller will regress somewhat as these surface numbers are unsustainable even for the greats. His 3.64 SIERA and 3.82 xFIP suggest he may be closer to very good rather than an elite pitcher but his FIP and xERA are quite favorable. Miller is a must-start in all formats regardless of matchup despite this.
Matthew Liberatore - St. Louis Cardinals
Liberatore dominated AAA this season and earned his promotion to the bigs. His 3.13 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 21.1% K-BB across 8 starts bodes well for his rest-of-season outlook in the bigs.
Liberatore took full advantage of his first MLB start of 2023. He shut out the Brewers in five innings allowing just three hits and three walks each while striking out six. A necessary caveat for this start is Milwaukee leading the MLB in strikeout rate versus left-handed pitching but given the state of pitching this season, we will take good wherever possible.
Bobby Miller - Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers finally received a good start from a rookie starting pitcher this season with Bobby Miller's electric outing this past Tuesday. Miller struck out five batters in five innings while allowing just one run in four hits and one walk. The start was most notable given that it was against the Atlanta Braves who had just mauled fellow rookie starter Gavin Stone the day prior.
Miller looks like an ace starter at 6'5" 220lbs and has the 100MPH gas to boot. His 5-pitch repertoire is impressive as well, especially given that he utilized each pitch at least 12% of the time in this initial start. His next outing comes at home against the lowly Nationals which makes Miller as much of a must-start as possible.
Mason Miller - Oakland A's
Injuries suck. Miller was throwing gas but made only a few starts before heading to the IL.
Louie Varland - Minnesota Twins
Varland was less heralded than his colleagues here coming into the season but his performance thus far is just as impressive as the best. If you ignore the unfortunate 4.18 ERA, we can see some favorable numbers to project forward. His 20.3% K-BB is on par with top-20 starters while his 13.4% swinging strike rate is bordering on top-10 (just below Cristian Javier).
The sample on Varland is small but as the Twins have demonstrated with Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray's elite emergence this season, they know a thing or two about pitching. A velocity jump matched with Varland's command may have been the recipe for success. He should be rostered in all leagues 12+ while starting in most matchups until further notice.
J.P. France - Houston Astros
France ate his worst outing of the season against the Cubs last week with 6ER, 9 hits, 2BB, and just 2K in 3 and 2/3 innings. This could very well be considered his regression game as a sub-1.00 ERA was not sustainable coming into the game with his low K-BB% (13.6%) and extremely lucky .156 BABIP.
The strikeouts France displayed throughout the minors finally showed up versus the Milwaukee Brewers but they unfortunately strike out versus everyone. France has been lucky this season but is worth holding for the short term as he lines up to face an unhealthy Twins lineup next.
Tanner Bibee - Cleveland Guardians
Bibee is somewhat walking on thin ice. His 3.18 ERA and 1.20 WHIP are great and all but a 4.60 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA loom. He came out of the gate firing but over the past three starts Bibee's strikeouts have diminished while the walks have increased. There is definitely hope for Bibee given the repertoire he possesses but the trend is not pretty. Best to move off before disaster than after, especially with a tough test against the Cardinals next.
Logan Allen - Cleveland Guardians
Allen is the better of the two new Guardians pitchers. While his ERA and WHIP are higher than Bibee, Allen's peripherals are much more palatable despite lesser stuff. Allen's 16.4% K-BB is above-average while his xFIP and SIERA sit at or below 4.00. He should be considered a start in most matchups going forward.
Brandon Pfaadt - Arizona Diamondbacks
Brandon Pfaadt's minor league struggles have carried over to the majors. His ERA, WHIP, and peripherals are egregiously high and nothing in his profile suggests any improvement. Pfaadt was a home run starter in the minors and even more so through 20 major league innings as he has given up seven home runs. The best bet on Pfaadt is to leave on waivers and hope a league mate takes the damage.
Gavin Stone - Los Angeles Dodgers
Gavin Stone's been awful in the majors thus far but there may be light at the end of the tunnel (unlike Pfaadt). Stone's matchups through two starts have been brutal as he has faced the Phillies and Braves. Meanwhile, despite struggling to throw strikes once again, Stone's second start was quite promising as he induced plenty of whiffs. when pitching in the zone.
Stone's next start does not get any easier as he faces the righty-mashing Rays but if he can demonstrate some of the strikeout upside he possesses, a speculative add would be worthwhile.
Everybody will talk about Gavin Stone getting hit hard, but he really had just one bad inning. That whiff rate is definitely eye-catching. There could be a buying opportunity here pic.twitter.com/JTTXzNUKI7
— Eric Samulski (@SamskiNYC) May 23, 2023
Jared Shuster - Atlanta Braves
Jared Shuster's start to the season was typical for any Spring Training star. He fell face-first through two starts and was sent back down to AAA. Recently, Shuster returned to the MLB and finally had a positive start, albeit against a lowly Mariners offense. Shuster allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out seven across six innings. His next start comes against a solid Phillies offense and if he can show out once more, an add across the board may be necessary given Shuster's pedigree and Atlanta's need for pitching.
#Braves Jared Shuster had his best outing of the year vs the Mariners
— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) May 22, 2023
- Velo ticked up on all pitches
- Threw his slider a season-high 34%. Had a 42% whiff%
This led to:
- less walks
- most K's in a start this season
- highest SwStr%. Did not get many chases
Worth monitoring pic.twitter.com/mTyXD3PYxr
Fantasy Baseball Rookie Stashes
- DL Hall - Baltimore Orioles
- Kyle Harrison - San Francisco Giants
- Drey Jameson - Arizona Diamondbacks
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