The Outsiders: Deeper Hitting Prospects to Know for Dynasty Leagues

Welcome the debut of a new recurring piece where I will highlight prospects that should be on your radar in deep dynasty leagues.

For "standard" dynasty leagues, we have RotoBaller's Premium Top 250 Dynasty Prospect Rankings, updated and maintained by our prospect guru Marc Hulet. But for you degenerates who participate in the deepest of dynasty leagues, you always need more of the next big thing. Therefore, I bring you...THE OUTSIDERS.

The Outsiders are MLB prospects currently outside RotoBaller's Top 250 Prospect Rankings. Each week, I will update rankings of players outside the Top 250 that should be on your radar for deep dynasty leagues and highlight some new players that could be showing up on the rankings in the future. My method is to use statistical analysis and in-game video looks of players to project what their future fantasy value could be at the MLB level.

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Overview

My Outsider rankings focus on a stats-heavy approach. I have created a fantasy-based weighted average called "Outsider+". This average looks at the league-adjusted production of all qualified hitters in full-season baseball, age 24 and under, so far in 2021.

Here is the next batch of Outsiders to know for dynasty baseball leagues in 2021:

Included in the Outsider+ (OUT+) average are the following statistical measures. Each stat is league adjusted so that "100" equates with a league-average performance. Each digit above or below 100 represents a 1% deviation from the average. So, Trevor Hauver's 221 Estimated Barrel+ rate is 121 points above the average performance in Low-A Southeast so far in 2021.

OPS+ a measure of a hitter's overall offensive production, combining on-base percentage and slugging.

Estimated Barrel+ my proprietary quality of contact metric which estimates the percentage of batted balls that were Statcast Barrels. A full write-up on the metric can be found here.

Estimated xwOBA+ takes a hitter's Estimated Barrels, K%, and BB% and estimates his Expected Weighted On Base Average. Measures a hitter's total offensive production in a linear weights method for offensive events. You can read more on xwOBA here.

BB:K+ is the ratio of a batter's walks to strikeouts, to measure a hitter's plate discipline and selectivity.

Contact%+ measures a batter's ability to make contact and put balls in play. Vital for batting average and on base percentage.

Spd+ is the FanGraphs version of Bill James' speed score concept. Measures various factors of a hitter's in-game speed and baserunning ability.

SB%+ is the percentage of successful stolen base attempts. Measures a batter's stolen base efficiency.

SBO%+ is an estimate of how frequently a batter attempts to steal bases. Measures a batter's aggressiveness on the base paths.

Here's a breakdown of each of these 10 Outsiders.

Trevor Hauver, 2B, New York Yankees

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Barrels for days married with a patient approach at the dish.

Current situation:

Hauver has been terrorizing pitching across the Low-A Southeast League since the start of the 2021 minor league season. He was a third-round selection in last summer's draft out of Arizona State. Clearly too physical and advanced for his current level, I'd anticipate Hauver gets called up to the team's High-A affiliate at Hudson Valley sooner rather than later.

Romy Gonzalez, SS, Chicago White Sox

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Potential 5-category impact with the defensive ability to stick up the middle for a MLB club.

Current situation:

The White Sox drafted Gonzalez out of the University of Miami in the 2018 draft. His time in Low-A ball in 2019 was relatively unimpressive, but he developed well during the 2020 lost season, and the team rewarded Gonzalez with an assignment as the starting shortstop for Double-A Birmingham to begin 2021. He's responded to the challenge extremely well, posting above-average league-adjusted stats in every Outsider category. In this clip he shows some promising opposite-field power:

Nick Pratto, 1B - Kansas City Royals

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Emerging power combines with his already present plate discipline to create an OPS monster that can also steal a bag or two.

Current situation:

Pratto was the Royals 1st round selection in the 2017 draft as a prep hitter out of California. He's struggled to make contact and hitting for power previously in his minor league career, but he's also always been challenged as a young hitter at each level. This year, he's a still young at 22-years-old at Double-A and he looks like he might really turn the corner. He's managed to improve both his contact rate and his hard contact rate so far in 2021, which is no easy task. Look for Pratto to earn a spring-training invite and look at the big club in the spring of 2022.

Tyler Dearden, OF - Boston Red Sox

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Big time pop has his fantasy owners scrambling in a FAAB "Fight Club" to pick him up, making him the best prospect for this genre since (His Name Is) Robert Puason.

Current situation:

The first rule of Tyler Dearden is we don't talk about Tyler Dearden. Whether his performance is real or a simple figment of this writer's delusional imagination remains to be seen.

MJ Melendez, C - Kansas City Royals

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Great approach and some pop provides above-average fantasy production as a backstop.

Current situation:

MJ Melendez has already penned a great professional season, when he posted an .814 OPS as a teenager in the full-season Sally League back in 2018. He struggled in 2019, but seems to have taken a great leap forward as a 22-year-old in Double-A ball this year. Melendez's calling card is his plate approach, but a 15.7% Estimated Barrel rate this year suggests there's more pop on the horizon for him.

Diego Infante, OF - Tampa Bay Rays

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Corner outfielder with a power-first profile who can also chip in some stolen bases.

Current situation:

There's something to be said for a young hitter that can tick the boxes at each level as he makes steady progress toward Major League Baseball. This is essentially what Infante has done since making his DSL debut in 2017. The athletic outfielder has four home runs and five stolen bases so far in his first taste of full-season baseball.

Lars Nootbaar, OF - St. Louis Cardinals

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

While you might be tempted to draft him just based on his name, his sweet left-handed swing and sneaky speed makes him a potential 4+ category roto contributor.

Current situation:

Named after the evil head coach of the Iceland team in D2: The Mighty Ducks (I think), Lars Nootbaar is tearing through the Cardinals system like a discount-brand protein bar (which he may or may not be named for) tears through your system. All puns aside, Nootbaar looks like one of these promising hitters that the Cardinals trade away to the American League every year.

Will Bartlett, 1B - Cleveland Indians

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

Big-time raw power continues to show up in games.

Current situation:

Bartlett was Cleveland's 9th round draft choice in the 2019 draft out of Florida's IMG Academy. As a right-handed hitting prep first baseman, he's flown under the radar as his profile doesn't scream 'traditional prospect'. But he's a hitter and he's going to hit. He combines a great plate approach with a feel for the barrel, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him keep up this pace throughout his time in Low-A in 2021.

Korry Howell, OF - Milwaukee Brewers

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

A true power/speed threat who improves his approach at the dish.

Current situation:

Howell, originally from Chicago, IL, was a junior college selection by the Brewers in the 2018 draft. Whoever was scouting the JuCo ranks that year for the Brewers did a hell of a job, as Outsider pitching prospect Aaron Ashby was also a JuCo product taken in that draft. Howell, 22, has hit six home runs and swiped seven bags already in 2021. It's the kind of power/speed profile you can dream on in any fantasy format.

Ernesto Martinez, 1B - Milwaukee Brewers

Why will he be relevant in fantasy:

A rare bird, who is an impressive physical specimen at 1B with real game-impacting speed.

Current situation:

Martinez is a tall, physical left-handed Cuban hitter with a personality nearly as big as his raw power. Despite his stature (6'6", 229), Martinez actually has more stolen bases (six) than home runs (five) in 2021. He's worth a scoop in very deep leagues, and his unique presence and skillset bear monitoring in all dynasty formats.

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