👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

The Open and Shut Case for Drafting a QB Late

Let me start by saying that I'm not sold on Zero RB, Zero WR or Zero anything going into drafts. I'm not even sure why "Best Player Available" is considered a strategy. Isn't that just common sense?

One thing I am certain of is that taking a QB in the first few rounds is completely unnecessary. I won't go so far as to call it a waste of a pick, but try convincing anyone who burned a first rounder on Andrew Luck last year otherwise. In a world where a QB can throw for 4,000 yards and 29 TD the previous season, yet be selected as the QB14 in drafts, it's safe to say there are plenty of good options available even in the double digit rounds.

Let's look at some recent performances by early round busts and some gems that saved fantasy owners' skins in the later picks. One glance and you will probably be bumping several QBs down several notches in your draft rankings.

Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!

Note: ADP values and draft results courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Underperforming Quarterbacks in 2015

Let's start with the busts. In the typical fantasy football draft in the week preceding the 2015 season, here are the first three quarterbacks drafted and their ADP: 1.10 Andrew Luck, 2.09 Aaron Rodgers, 4.07 Peyton Manning. I could pretty much just drop the mic and end this section right now, but let's use some actual statistical analysis to prove what you already know.

All three could be qualified as busts. Don't play the injury card to justify their rotten seasons either. In the games Andrew Luck did play before getting injured, he had five TD compared to seven INT in his first three contests, ending up with a 15/12 TD/INT rate for the year. Manning was even worse, completing less than 60% of his passes and managing a wretched 9/17 TD/INT rate. Of course, it doesn't have those stats etched on his Super Bowl ring, so no skin off his back. Just those who burned an early draft pick on him expecting 40+ TD again. Here's a visual representation of the first five QBs drafted on average in 2015, their final stats and overall fantasy ranking.

2015 QB ADP

As you can see, only Drew Brees actually retained value worthy of his ADP. At age 37, there may be some cause for concern as Peyton Manning dropped off a cliff at age 39, but it seems unlikely that this will be the season. Rodgers salvaged a top 10 ranking even without Jordy Nelson, but the question is whether he was worth an early second round pick.

 

Later Round QBs that Returned Big Value in 2015

As you will see below, there were several QBs drafted significantly later who provided even more value. Roethlisberger was close to matching his pre-season value and may have done better if not for the absences of some key skill players such as Leveon Bell and Martavis Bryant at times. Now let's look at the quarterbacks who finished with the most fantasy points and where they were drafted.

2015 QB rank

People have long predicted a breakout season like this for Newton, although maybe not quite to the extent that it actually occurred. One thing you may notice is that three of the top five QB for fantasy purposes made contributions with their feet. Palmer is pretty much a statue with a cannon arm, but it's an accurate arm so he more than made up for his lack of mobility.

This phenomenon is a new one, as drafting a dependable QB early used to be as common as the old axiom "Always take a running back first." For reference, here's how the same tables worked in 2014. As expected, Manning was the first QB taken off the boards after a record-setting season in Denver. He justified it with another excellent performance, as did most of the players on here.

2014 QB ADP

You'll notice that the top five finishers at QB are not surprises, although Andrew Luck finished stronger than expected. He more than made up for that last season. Quarterback used to be the position where you did not want to wait too long and take a chance on an unproven signal caller. Here are the top QBs from 2014 in fantasy terms. Nobody here remotely resembles the pedigree of a Blake Bortles.

2014 QB rank

 

High Quality QBs to Target Later in 2016 Drafts

So, what has changed? We hear about the league becoming more pass-heavy and to some extent that is true. The other factor is that more QBs are using their mobility to add rushing value. Even Kirk Cousins scored five rushing TD last season - more than LeSean McCoy or Eddie Lacy! Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will be long gone by the time you should be thinking QB, but when a player like Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor are available, don't just look at passing stats and think of the added value you're getting as a rusher.

Let's say you're sold on waiting for a QB. Who are the top targets in the middle rounds? Let’s take a look at the QBs available outside the top ten at the position. All these players are available, on average, starting in the ninth round or later. All statistics represent last year’s output, not projections for this year.

2015 QB late targets

It may take some time to get used to the idea of having Cousins or Taylor as your starter. When you see the type of talent you can assemble at RB/WR/TE while waiting on your QB, you'll cozy up to them pretty quickly. With a slew of 4,000 yard passers and dual-threat quarterbacks available in the 10th round, why wouldn't you wait?

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Projections
Articles & Tools
Weekly Planner
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Kelly Oubre Jr.

Out at Least Two Weeks
Grant Williams

Sidelined Against Kings
John Metchie III

Signing One-Year Deal to Join Panthers
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Jaguars Signing Chris Rodriguez Jr. on Wednesday
Coby White

Active On Wednesday
Stephen Curry

Expected to Miss 10 More Days
Jake Browning

Plans to Sign One-Year Deal With Buccaneers
Dylan Parham

Jets Agree With Dylan Parham on Two-Year Deal
Durham Smythe

Ravens Agree to Terms With Durham Smythe
Sean Tucker

Buccaneers Tender Sean Tucker on One-Year Deal
Kyler Murray

Officially Released by the Cardinals
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Officially Release Kirk Cousins
Jake Tonges

49ers, Jake Tonges Agree to Two-Year Deal
Bryce Miller

Shuts Down Bullpen Due to More Oblique Discomfort
Zac Gallen

Named Arizona's Opening Day Starter
Kyle Teel

Could Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hamstring Strain
Jaylinn Hawkins

Plans to Sign Two-Year Deal With Ravens
Chig Okonkwo

Commanders Agree to Three-Year Deal With Chig Okonkwo
Patrick Taylor Jr.

Agrees to Extension With 49ers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Bringing Aaron Jones Sr. Back
New England Patriots

Kevin Byard Signing With Patriots on One-Year Deal
Cade York

Jets Agree to One-Year Deal With Kicker Cade York
James Mitchell

Returns to Panthers on One-Year Deal
Jack Stoll

Browns Agree With Jack Stoll on One-Year Deal
Kyler Murray

Vikings, Kyler Murray Have "Mutual Interest"
David Montgomery

to Enter 2026 as Houston's No. 1 Back
Brandon Aiyuk

49ers Plan to Release Brandon Aiyuk
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Still Want Two First-Round Picks for Maxx Crosby
Hideki Matsuyama

Brings Strong Course History to TPC Sawgrass
Josh Hader

to Start the Year on the Injured List
Adam Scott

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Shayne Gostisbehere

to Remain Out for "Couple of Games"
Robert Thomas

Blues Hopeful Robert Thomas Can Play Through Upper-Body Injury
Ross Colton

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Tuesday Night
Connor Ingram

"Feeling Well" After Tuesday's Early Exit
Dylan Larkin

Doubtful for Rest of Road Trip
Andrew Copp

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Justin Brazeau

Out Week-to-Week
Ace Bailey

Cleared to Play Wednesday
Keyonte George

Still Dealing With Illness, Questionable Wednesday
Mitchell Robinson

Available for Wednesday's Tilt
Josh Hart

Questionable for Wednesday Night
Jarrett Allen

Remains Out Wednesday
Cameron Johnson

Considered Probable Wednesday
Kyle Teel

Exits Tuesday's Game With Hamstring Injury
Jamal Murray

Probable for Matchup With Rockets
Rickie Fowler

on Quite the Run Heading to TPC Sawgrass
Sepp Straka

Needs to Forget What Happened Sunday at Bay Hill
Jordan Spieth

an Enigma Heading to The Players Championship
Justin Rose

Trying to Pick Up the Pieces in Florida
Maverick McNealy

Bounces Back at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Brooks Koepka

Continues His Florida Swing With Some Momentum
Nicolai Hojgaard

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Robert MacIntyre

a Volatile Option at The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Return to Top Form at The Players
Sam Burns

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Players
Keegan Bradley

Hard to Trust at The Players
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Heading to Players Championship
Rory McIlroy

Set to Return at Players Championship to Defend Title
Jake Knapp

Set to Return at Players Championship
Viktor Hovland

Continues Strong Start to 2026 Season
Jakub Dobes

Makes 17 Saves in Victory
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking for Bounce-Back at Players Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Will Need to Find Putter to Compete at Players Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Continues Improving Heading to Players Championship
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere's Hat Trick Leads New York to Victory
Carter Verhaeghe

Wins it for Florida on Tuesday
Maxi Kleber

Ruled Out vs. Timberwolves
Bam Adebayo

Scores 83 Points in Historic Night
Cameron Payne

Explodes for 32 Points in Win Over Memphis
LeBron James

Remains Out Tuesday vs. Minnesota
Draymond Green

Will Play Tuesday vs. Bulls
De'Anthony Melton

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup
Merrill Kelly

Set to Make Spring Training Debut on Friday
Francisco Lindor

"100 Percent Optimistic" he Can be Ready for Opening Day
Jakob Poeltl

is Unavailable on Tuesday
Grayson Allen

to Play on Tuesday
Day'Ron Sharpe

is Sitting Out on Tuesday
Bobby Portis

is Ruled Out on Tuesday
Justin Thomas

Continues Competitive Return at The Players Championship
Colton Parayko

Rejoins Blues Lineup
Shayne Gostisbehere

Unavailable Against Penguins
Marcus Johansson

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Darren Raddysh

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Sam Reinhart

Out Tuesday
John Gibson

Available Tuesday
Dylan Larkin

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Corbin Carroll

Set to Play in Cactus League Game on Wednesday
Kyle Stowers

to Make Grapefruit League Debut on Saturday
Hunter Greene

to be Sidelined Through July
James Reimer

Posts Shutout With Seventh Franchise
Tim Stützle

Tim Stutzle Stretches Point Streak to 13 Games
Justin Sourdif

Amasses Three Points In Monday's Win
Connor Bedard

Sets Up Two Goals in Overtime Win
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies Agree on Five-Year Extension
Corbin Carroll

Could Make Spring Debut This Week
Max Holloway

Drops Decision At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Becomes The New BMF Champion
Caio Borralho

Bounces Back
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Rob Font

Gets Dominated
Raul Rosas Jr.

Extends His Win Streak
Michael Johnson

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Drew Dober

Knocks Out Michael Johnson
Rafael Devers

Back in Cactus League Lineup on Monday
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Consecutive Phoenix Cup Series Win
Christopher Bell

Falls Short of Victory Despite Dominating at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Earns Hard-Fought Finish of Third at Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Quietly Gains Another Top-Five Finish at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Crashes out at Phoenix Despite Strong Run
Tarik Skubal

Could Make Another Start in World Baseball Classic
Jackson Chourio

Should Return to WBC Lineup on Monday
Byron Buxton

"Fine" After Being Hit by Pitch
Ryan Blaney

is Always A Top Favorite to Compete for the Win At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Phoenix?
Christopher Bell

is Likely to have Another Solid Phoenix Run
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Could Dominate at Phoenix This Weekend
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Sunday's Race at Phoenix
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain

Has Found Speed Again at Phoenix
Josh Berry

a Solid Sleeper at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Skips Qualifying After Practice Crash at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Spins in Practice at Phoenix
William Byron

Should Be a Contender at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Is Always a Threat at Phoenix
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be Playable for Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Anthony Alfredo

Is A Favorable DFS Option In A Substitution Role At Phoenix
Brandon Woodruff

Making Cactus League Debut on Saturday
Byron Buxton

Leaves WBC Game After Being Hit by a Pitch on his Elbow
Jackson Chourio

"Fine" After Suffering Hand Contusion
Max Holloway

A Favorite At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Set For BMF Title Fight
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Looks To Bounce Back
Caio Borralho

Set For UFC 326 Co-Main Event
Rob Font

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Raul Rosas Jr.

Looks For His Fifth Consecutive Win
Drew Dober

Returns At UFC 326
Michael Johnson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Rafael Devers

Could Return to Game Action Next Week
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Hopes to be Ready for Opening Day
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF