👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

The Open and Shut Case for Drafting a QB Late

Let me start by saying that I'm not sold on Zero RB, Zero WR or Zero anything going into drafts. I'm not even sure why "Best Player Available" is considered a strategy. Isn't that just common sense?

One thing I am certain of is that taking a QB in the first few rounds is completely unnecessary. I won't go so far as to call it a waste of a pick, but try convincing anyone who burned a first rounder on Andrew Luck last year otherwise. In a world where a QB can throw for 4,000 yards and 29 TD the previous season, yet be selected as the QB14 in drafts, it's safe to say there are plenty of good options available even in the double digit rounds.

Let's look at some recent performances by early round busts and some gems that saved fantasy owners' skins in the later picks. One glance and you will probably be bumping several QBs down several notches in your draft rankings.

Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!

Note: ADP values and draft results courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Underperforming Quarterbacks in 2015

Let's start with the busts. In the typical fantasy football draft in the week preceding the 2015 season, here are the first three quarterbacks drafted and their ADP: 1.10 Andrew Luck, 2.09 Aaron Rodgers, 4.07 Peyton Manning. I could pretty much just drop the mic and end this section right now, but let's use some actual statistical analysis to prove what you already know.

All three could be qualified as busts. Don't play the injury card to justify their rotten seasons either. In the games Andrew Luck did play before getting injured, he had five TD compared to seven INT in his first three contests, ending up with a 15/12 TD/INT rate for the year. Manning was even worse, completing less than 60% of his passes and managing a wretched 9/17 TD/INT rate. Of course, it doesn't have those stats etched on his Super Bowl ring, so no skin off his back. Just those who burned an early draft pick on him expecting 40+ TD again. Here's a visual representation of the first five QBs drafted on average in 2015, their final stats and overall fantasy ranking.

2015 QB ADP

As you can see, only Drew Brees actually retained value worthy of his ADP. At age 37, there may be some cause for concern as Peyton Manning dropped off a cliff at age 39, but it seems unlikely that this will be the season. Rodgers salvaged a top 10 ranking even without Jordy Nelson, but the question is whether he was worth an early second round pick.

 

Later Round QBs that Returned Big Value in 2015

As you will see below, there were several QBs drafted significantly later who provided even more value. Roethlisberger was close to matching his pre-season value and may have done better if not for the absences of some key skill players such as Leveon Bell and Martavis Bryant at times. Now let's look at the quarterbacks who finished with the most fantasy points and where they were drafted.

2015 QB rank

People have long predicted a breakout season like this for Newton, although maybe not quite to the extent that it actually occurred. One thing you may notice is that three of the top five QB for fantasy purposes made contributions with their feet. Palmer is pretty much a statue with a cannon arm, but it's an accurate arm so he more than made up for his lack of mobility.

This phenomenon is a new one, as drafting a dependable QB early used to be as common as the old axiom "Always take a running back first." For reference, here's how the same tables worked in 2014. As expected, Manning was the first QB taken off the boards after a record-setting season in Denver. He justified it with another excellent performance, as did most of the players on here.

2014 QB ADP

You'll notice that the top five finishers at QB are not surprises, although Andrew Luck finished stronger than expected. He more than made up for that last season. Quarterback used to be the position where you did not want to wait too long and take a chance on an unproven signal caller. Here are the top QBs from 2014 in fantasy terms. Nobody here remotely resembles the pedigree of a Blake Bortles.

2014 QB rank

 

High Quality QBs to Target Later in 2016 Drafts

So, what has changed? We hear about the league becoming more pass-heavy and to some extent that is true. The other factor is that more QBs are using their mobility to add rushing value. Even Kirk Cousins scored five rushing TD last season - more than LeSean McCoy or Eddie Lacy! Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will be long gone by the time you should be thinking QB, but when a player like Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor are available, don't just look at passing stats and think of the added value you're getting as a rusher.

Let's say you're sold on waiting for a QB. Who are the top targets in the middle rounds? Let’s take a look at the QBs available outside the top ten at the position. All these players are available, on average, starting in the ninth round or later. All statistics represent last year’s output, not projections for this year.

2015 QB late targets

It may take some time to get used to the idea of having Cousins or Taylor as your starter. When you see the type of talent you can assemble at RB/WR/TE while waiting on your QB, you'll cozy up to them pretty quickly. With a slew of 4,000 yard passers and dual-threat quarterbacks available in the 10th round, why wouldn't you wait?

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Compare Any Players
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote No. 1-Ranked Prospect Bryce Eldridge to MLB Roster
Jonas Brodin

Out for Games 1 and 2 Against Colorado
Joel Eriksson Ek

Will Miss First Two Games of Colorado Series
Joel Kiviranta

Remains Out of the Lineup Versus Minnesota
Anthony Volpe

Reinstated from Injured List, Optioned to Triple-A
Josh Manson

Out for Game 1 Against Minnesota
Carter Bryant

Iffy for Game 1 Against Timberwolves
Joel Embiid

Considered Probable for Monday
Kyle Anderson

Available for Round 2 Opener
Ayo Dosunmu

Tagged as Questionable on Injury Report
Anthony Edwards

Listed as Questionable for Game 1 Against Spurs
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Unavailable for Start of Round 2, Considered Week-to-Week
Brandon Ingram

Won't Play in Game 7 Against Cavaliers
Ranger Suarez

Exits Sunday's Start with Hamstring Tightness
Agustín Ramírez

Marlins Demote Agustin Ramirez to Triple-A
Victor Hedman

Will Not Play Sunday Versus Montreal
Noah Dobson

Will Play Against Tampa Bay on Sunday
Marvin Mims Jr.

Path to Dynasty Relevance May Require a Change in Scenery
Tank Bigsby

Remains a High-End Dynasty Handcuff Running Back in Philadelphia
Ben Rice

Exits Sunday's Contest with Left Hand Contusion
Hunter Henry

Long-Term Future in New England in Question After NFL Draft?
Matthew Golden

a Prime Dynasty Buy-Low Candidate Heading into 2026
Kevin Huerter

is Out for Game 7
Jalen Coker

Carries Breakout Potential into 2026
Dak Prescott

Remains a Dynasty QB1 Heading into 2026
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Could be Done in Boston
Christopher Bell

Is Christopher Bell Worth Rostering for Texas Lineups?
Cal Raleigh

Considered Day-to-Day With Soreness in his Side
Brandon Ingram

is Downgraded to Doubtful for Game 7
William Byron

Might have the Speed to Compete for the Win at Texas
Jonathan Isaac

Remains Out for Game 7
Joey Logano

Provides Solid Upside for Texas DFS Lineups
Joe Ryan

Exits Early From Start on Sunday Due to Elbow Soreness
Chase Briscoe

Could Chase Briscoe be A Sneaky Pick for Texas Lineups?
Ty Gibbs

Should DFS Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Texas?
Daniel Suarez

Is Daniel Suarez Worth Rostering After Career-Best Starting Position at Texas?
Daniel Palencia

Cubs Reinstate Daniel Palencia From the Injured List on Sunday
Kyle Busch

Is a DFS Risk Starting in the Top 10 at Texas
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Braves Place Ronald Acuna Jr. on Injured List With Strained Hamstring
Nick Lodolo

Expected to Make Season Debut on Friday
Tyler Reddick

One of the Favorites to Win Texas
Chase Elliott

Could Contend for Another Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar

on Pole at Texas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Wrecks in Practice at Texas
Chris Buescher

Looking to Continue Strong Run at Texas
Austin Dillon

Blows Engine in Practice at Texas
CeeDee Lamb

Is CeeDee Lamb Being Undervalued?
Bijan Robinson

Could Just Be Entering His Dynasty Prime
Derrick White

Delivers All-Around Line in Game 7 Loss
Neemias Queta

Finishes with Double-Double in Playoff Loss
Malik Washington

Emerging as a Low-Cost Dynasty Buy Out of Ambiguous Receiver Room
Jaylen Brown

Posts Strong Line but Celtics Fall Short
Diego Pavia

Ravens Noncommital on Diego Pavia's Future with Team
Tyrese Maxey

Dominates in Series-Clinching Victory
David Njoku

Visiting the Chargers on Monday
VJ Edgecombe

Provides Key Spark in Game 7 Win
Patrick Mahomes

Expected to Participate in OTAs
Joel Embiid

Delivers 34 Points in Series Clincher
Ayo Dosunmu

Considered Day-to-Day Ahead of Game 1
Mike Reilly

Delivers Two Assists in Game 1 Win
Logan Stankoven

Establishes New Franchise Record With Five-Game Goal Streak
Frederik Andersen

Records Second Postseason Shutout
Radko Gudas

Ducks Hope to See Radko Gudas Return During Second Round
Josh Manson

Day-to-Day Ahead of Game 1 Against Wild
Joel Kiviranta

Considered Day-to-Day
Joel Eriksson Ek

Questionable for Game 1 Against Avalanche
Cal Raleigh

Scratched From Lineup, No Reason Given
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Exits with Left Hamstring Tightness
Anthony Edwards

Remains Week-to-Week
Joel Embiid

Available for Game 7 Against Celtics
Paul George

Cleared to Play Saturday
Owen Tippett

Unlikely to Play Saturday
Jonas Brodin

to Miss Game 1 Against Avalanche
Nikita Zadorov

Played Through Torn MCL in Playoffs
Connor McDavid

Played With Fractured Foot Against Ducks
Alexander Nikishin

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Nikolaj Ehlers

Expected to Play Saturday
Greg Dulcich

Carries Breakout Potential into 2026
Kaelon Black

Well-Positioned for Dynasty Success Following NFL Draft
J'Mari Taylor

Can J'Mari Taylor Break Through Crowded Running Back Depth Chart in Jacksonville?
Eli Raridon

Dynasty Stock Rising Following NFL Draft
Michael Trigg

Facing Uphill Battle for a Roster Spot in Dallas
Matthew Hibner

Is Matthew Hibner the Tight End of the Future in Baltimore?
Seth McGowan

Likely to be RB3 to Begin his Rookie Season
Caleb Douglas

a Low-Upside Dynasty Stash Competing for a Role in Miami
Francis Mauigoa

Giants "Comfortable" With Francis Mauigoa's Back
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Leaves With Side Tightness, Considered Day-to-Day
Jacob Misiorowski

Leaves Start Early on Friday With Hamstring Cramp
Brandon Nimmo

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early on Friday
Ryan Helsley

Placed on Injured List With Elbow Inflammation
Dylan Holloway

Signs Five-Year Extension With Blues
Barrett Hayton

Jack McBain Iffy for Friday
Ryan Pepiot

to Miss the Rest of the Season, Scheduled for Hip Surgery
Brandon Woodruff

Goes on Injured List With Shoulder Inflammation
Nico Hoerner

Leaves Friday's Game Early With Neck Tightness
Jack Della Maddalena

Returns At UFC Perth
Carlos Prates

Set For UFC Perth Main Event
Quillan Salkilld

Set For Co-Main Event
Beneil Dariush

An Underdog At UFC Perth
Steve Erceg

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Tim Elliott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Ollie Schmid

Set For His UFC Debut
Marwan Rahiki

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Wyatt Langford

Suffers Setback With Forearm Injury
Brandon Woodruff

to Get Some Time Off
Gary Woodland

Riding Momentum Into Cadillac Championship
Jordan Spieth

Brings Boom-or-Bust Potential to Cadillac Championship
Adam Scott

Looks Poised for Another Strong Finish at Doral
Maverick McNealy

Needs Approach Game to Click at Doral
CFB

Jameson Williams Files Lawsuit Against NCAA, SEC, Big Ten
Harry Hall

Volatility Continues at Cadillac Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Looks to Rebound at Trump National Doral
Pierceson Coody

a Risky Value Play at Cadillac Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Offers Upside with Risk at Cadillac Championship
Justin Thomas

a Scary Proposition at Cadillac Championship
Scottie Scheffler

The Leading Favorite at Cadillac Championship
Collin Morikawa

Still a Smash Play at Cadillac Championship
Viktor Hovland

Showed at Augusta He Can Finish Well
Sepp Straka

Attempting to Finish Better in Miami
PGA

J.J Spaun Enduring Roller Coaster Start to 2026
Min Woo Lee

Seeks to Make Adjustments at Cadillac Championship
Max Homa

May Struggle at Old Doral This Weekend
Ben Griffin

Rebounds From Rough Stretch as Miami Looms
Shane Lowry

Searching For Answers at Cadillac Championship
Russell Henley

Daunting Test at Doral Likely Not a Place For Russell Henley
Justin Rose

Returns to Action After Finishing Third at Masters Tournament
Hideki Matsuyama

Has The Approach Game to Win at Cadillac Championship
CFB

Brendan Sorsby Facing Potential Permanent Loss of Eligibility
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF