👉 TAP TO SAVE 50% WITH CODE SPRING
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


The Open and Shut Case for Drafting a QB Late

Let me start by saying that I'm not sold on Zero RB, Zero WR or Zero anything going into drafts. I'm not even sure why "Best Player Available" is considered a strategy. Isn't that just common sense?

One thing I am certain of is that taking a QB in the first few rounds is completely unnecessary. I won't go so far as to call it a waste of a pick, but try convincing anyone who burned a first rounder on Andrew Luck last year otherwise. In a world where a QB can throw for 4,000 yards and 29 TD the previous season, yet be selected as the QB14 in drafts, it's safe to say there are plenty of good options available even in the double digit rounds.

Let's look at some recent performances by early round busts and some gems that saved fantasy owners' skins in the later picks. One glance and you will probably be bumping several QBs down several notches in your draft rankings.

Editor's Note: The FFPC Baby Gorilla Tournament is now open, featuring a $100,000 grand prize and a $675,450 total prize pool! This 12-team, Tight End Premium contest uses a 20-round draft format, with the overall winners determined by total points scored during Weeks 15–17. Get $25 to use toward your first entry by signing up through our link. Grab your team now! Sign Up Now!

Note: ADP values and draft results courtesy of FantasyFootballCalculator.com.

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Underperforming Quarterbacks in 2015

Let's start with the busts. In the typical fantasy football draft in the week preceding the 2015 season, here are the first three quarterbacks drafted and their ADP: 1.10 Andrew Luck, 2.09 Aaron Rodgers, 4.07 Peyton Manning. I could pretty much just drop the mic and end this section right now, but let's use some actual statistical analysis to prove what you already know.

All three could be qualified as busts. Don't play the injury card to justify their rotten seasons either. In the games Andrew Luck did play before getting injured, he had five TD compared to seven INT in his first three contests, ending up with a 15/12 TD/INT rate for the year. Manning was even worse, completing less than 60% of his passes and managing a wretched 9/17 TD/INT rate. Of course, it doesn't have those stats etched on his Super Bowl ring, so no skin off his back. Just those who burned an early draft pick on him expecting 40+ TD again. Here's a visual representation of the first five QBs drafted on average in 2015, their final stats and overall fantasy ranking.

2015 QB ADP

As you can see, only Drew Brees actually retained value worthy of his ADP. At age 37, there may be some cause for concern as Peyton Manning dropped off a cliff at age 39, but it seems unlikely that this will be the season. Rodgers salvaged a top 10 ranking even without Jordy Nelson, but the question is whether he was worth an early second round pick.

 

Later Round QBs that Returned Big Value in 2015

As you will see below, there were several QBs drafted significantly later who provided even more value. Roethlisberger was close to matching his pre-season value and may have done better if not for the absences of some key skill players such as Leveon Bell and Martavis Bryant at times. Now let's look at the quarterbacks who finished with the most fantasy points and where they were drafted.

2015 QB rank

People have long predicted a breakout season like this for Newton, although maybe not quite to the extent that it actually occurred. One thing you may notice is that three of the top five QB for fantasy purposes made contributions with their feet. Palmer is pretty much a statue with a cannon arm, but it's an accurate arm so he more than made up for his lack of mobility.

This phenomenon is a new one, as drafting a dependable QB early used to be as common as the old axiom "Always take a running back first." For reference, here's how the same tables worked in 2014. As expected, Manning was the first QB taken off the boards after a record-setting season in Denver. He justified it with another excellent performance, as did most of the players on here.

2014 QB ADP

You'll notice that the top five finishers at QB are not surprises, although Andrew Luck finished stronger than expected. He more than made up for that last season. Quarterback used to be the position where you did not want to wait too long and take a chance on an unproven signal caller. Here are the top QBs from 2014 in fantasy terms. Nobody here remotely resembles the pedigree of a Blake Bortles.

2014 QB rank

 

High Quality QBs to Target Later in 2016 Drafts

So, what has changed? We hear about the league becoming more pass-heavy and to some extent that is true. The other factor is that more QBs are using their mobility to add rushing value. Even Kirk Cousins scored five rushing TD last season - more than LeSean McCoy or Eddie Lacy! Cam Newton and Russell Wilson will be long gone by the time you should be thinking QB, but when a player like Blake Bortles, Marcus Mariota or Tyrod Taylor are available, don't just look at passing stats and think of the added value you're getting as a rusher.

Let's say you're sold on waiting for a QB. Who are the top targets in the middle rounds? Let’s take a look at the QBs available outside the top ten at the position. All these players are available, on average, starting in the ninth round or later. All statistics represent last year’s output, not projections for this year.

2015 QB late targets

It may take some time to get used to the idea of having Cousins or Taylor as your starter. When you see the type of talent you can assemble at RB/WR/TE while waiting on your QB, you'll cozy up to them pretty quickly. With a slew of 4,000 yard passers and dual-threat quarterbacks available in the 10th round, why wouldn't you wait?

 




REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Hunter Greene

Could Return Before the All-Star Break
Isaac TeSlaa

How Will Isaac TeSlaa Follow Up on a Strong 2025 Finish?
Troy Franklin

a Dynasty Hold with Potentially Rough Times Ahead
Trevor Lawrence

Is Trevor Lawrence Finally Becoming the Can't-Miss Player That Was Promised?
Courtland Sutton

an Undervalued Dynasty Depth Piece
KC Concepcion

Versatility Could Provide an Early Dynasty Floor
Dylan Harper

Remains a Bright Spot for San Antonio
De'Aaron Fox

Shoots Well in a Loss to the Knicks
Victor Wembanyama

Scores 29 Points in Game 2 Loss
OG Anunoby

Anchors Knicks' Defense in Finals Game 2
Mikal Bridges

Helps Knicks Secure a Game 2 Victory
Karl-Anthony Towns

Records Another Finals Double-Double
Jalen Brunson

Overcomes Cold Night to Seal Game 2
Michael Harris II

Dealing With Back Tightness, Not Believed to be Serious
Byron Buxton

Suffers Shoulder Contusion After Colliding With the Wall
Sacramento Kings

Kings Want to Trade Their Larger Contracts
Chicago Bulls

Darius Acuff Jr. Works Out for Bulls
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Could Get Traded
MIN

Marcus Johansson Returning to Europe
Thomas White

Likely to Miss Rest of Season With Shoulder Capsular Sprain
Mitchell Robinson

is Upgraded to Available for Game 2
Cole Caufield

Earns Lady Byng Trophy
Nick Suzuki

Lands Selke Trophy
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Does Deebo Samuel Sr. Carry Buy-Low Appeal for Win-Now Dynasty Managers?
Elic Ayomanor

Is Elic Ayomanor Still Worthy of a Dynasty Roster Spot?
Jose Altuve

Astros Reinstate Jose Altuve From the Injured List
Tyler Warren

Does Tyler Warren Have Dynasty TE1 Upside?
Jonathon Brooks

Entering 2026 as a Buy-Low Dynasty Candidate?
Tyler Allgeier

Remains a Dynasty Buy-Low Candidate
Quentin Johnston

Is Quentin Johnston Undervalued by Dynasty Managers?
CFB

Reed Harris Hoping to Fill Void in Arizona State Receiving Room
CFB

Nick Marsh Gearing Up for Breakout
CFB

Drew Mestemaker Looking to Catapult Oklahoma State Offense in 2026
CFB

Rocco Becht Brings Experience to New-Look Nittany Lions
CFB

Can Trey White, Adam Trick Keep Texas Tech's Defensive Front Elite?
CFB

Devon Dampier is Key to Success for Morgan Scalley in Year 1
Aaron Judge

Yankees Officially Place Aaron Judge on Injured List With Fractured Rib
Francisco Lindor

Expected to Return in "About a Couple Weeks"
J.J. McCarthy

Fighting Uphill Battle to Win Starting QB Job?
Brian Thomas Jr.

Improving his Chemistry With QB
Malik Willis

' Chemistry With New WRs is a "Work in Progress"
Baker Mayfield

"Not Anywhere Close" to New Contract With Buccaneers
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Sitting Out of OTAs
Isaiah Likely

Carries Significant Dynasty Upside into First Season in New York
Emanuel Wilson

Dynasty Outlook Clouded by Depth Chart Uncertainty in Seattle
Jaylin Noel

Is Jaylin Noel Still Roster-Worthy in Dynasty Formats?
Dylan Sampson

Carries Dynasty Upside Despite Current Place on Depth Chart
George Holani

Is George Holani Worthy of a Deep-League Dynasty Roster Spot?
Corey Seager

Rangers Activate Corey Seager From the Injured List
Gabriel Bonfim

Set For UFC Vegas 118 Main Event
Belal Muhammad

In Dire Need Of Win
Edmen Shahbazyan

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 118
Shayne Gostisbehere

Dishes Out Two Power-Play Assists in Comeback Win
Brendan Allen

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Seth Jarvis

Ties Finals With Power-Play Goal
Mark Stone

Scores Sixth Playoff Goal in Overtime Defeat
Tom Nolan

Searches For His Fifth Consecutive Win
Mitch Marner

Records Two Assists in Game 2 Loss
Farés Ziam

Fares Ziam A Favorite At UFC Vegas 118
Brett Howden

Matches Franchise Record With Another Productive Outing
Brayden McNabb

Hospitalized After Taking Puck to Face
Aaron Judge

Diagnosed with Stress Fracture, Out 4-6 Weeks
Shohei Ohtani

has "Small" Blister, a "Non-Issue" for his Pitching Starts
Brent Rooker

Out on Thursday Due to Knee Soreness
Frederik Andersen

Hurricanes Retain Confidence in Frederik Andersen
Vincent Trocheck

Maple Leafs Interested in Vincent Trocheck
Dylan Larkin

Requests Trade From Red Wings
Corey Seager

Expected to Return This Weekend
Lucas Erceg

Royals to Mix and Match in Ninth With Lucas Erceg Struggling
Jonathan Toews

Expected to Retire
Anders Lee

Set to Hit Open Market
TB

Jon Cooper Wins First Jack Adams Trophy
De'Aaron Fox

Struggles Again Wednesday Night
Dylan Harper

Turns Heads in Finals Opener
Stephon Castle

Close to Double-Double in Game 1 Loss to Knicks
Victor Wembanyama

Notches 26 Points in Finals Debut
Josh Hart

Grabs 15 Rebounds in Game 1 Win Over Spurs
Karl-Anthony Towns

Opens Finals With Double-Double
Jalen Brunson

Scores Game-High 30 Points in Finals Opener
Aaron Judge

to Undergo Additional Imaging
Ketel Marte

Out on Wednesday With Back, Hamstring Injuries
Mitchell Robinson

is Available for Game 1 on Wednesday
Kawhi Leonard

Unlikely to be Traded
Chicago Bulls

Bulls Host Potential Lottery Picks for Workout
Corbin Burnes

has Teres Major Strain, Unlikely to Return Until September
Rickie Fowler

Looks To Continue Resurgent Season At Memorial
CFB

Can Eric Singleton Jr. Fully Break Out at Third School?
CFB

Katin Houser Steps into QB1 Role for Illinois
CFB

Savion Hiter an Immediate Impact Freshman for Michigan
CFB

Isaiah Horton Set to Take Over KC Concepcion's Role
CFB

UCLA Transfer Karson Gordon Signs with Austin Peay
CFB

Will Muschamp Bringing New Intensity to Texas Practices
Gary Woodland

Brings Boom-or-Bust Potential to Memorial
Jordan Spieth

Still Searching for a Breakthrough
Alex Smalley

Brings Elite Form to Memorial Tournament
Justin Rose

Looks to Recapture Memorial Tournament Success
Cameron Young

Looks to Get Back to His Contending Ways at Murifield Village
Chris Gotterup

Needs to Find Fairways at Muirfield Village
Si Woo Kim

Looks to Stay Hot at Memorial Tournament
Matt Fitzpatrick

Positioned for Success at Muirfield Village
Jalen Chatfield

Records Two Assists in Tuesday's Loss
Keegan Bradley

Looking for Another Strong Finish at Muirfield
Nikolaj Ehlers

Nets Two Goals in Game 1 Loss to Golden Knights
Shea Theodore

Notches Three Points in Game 1 Win
Brayden McNabb

Sets Up Three Goals in Game 1 Win Over Hurricanes
Justin Thomas

is an Exciting Play This Week in Ohio
Brett Howden

Starts Finals With Multi-Point Effort
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Win Memorial Tournament for Third Consecutive Year
Tomas Hertl

Scores Game-Winner in Finals Opener
Rory McIlroy

Looking for Better Performance at Muirfield Village
Drake Baldwin

Could Return During Braves Next Homestand
Garrett Crochet

Diagnosed With Low-Grade Lat Strain
Russell Henley

Coming to Ohio on the Heels of Latest Victory
Tommy Fleetwood

Looking for Better Iron Play at Memorial Tournament
Patrick Cantlay

Looks to Continue Dominance at Muirfield Village
Ludvig Aberg

a Great Fit for Muirfield Village
Aaron Judge

Out on Tuesday With Rib/Shoulder Injury
Josh Hader

Set to Return from Injured List on Tuesday
CFB

SEC Coach Calls Buster Faulkner a "Home-Run Hire"
CFB

Auburn a Sleeper in the SEC Under Alex Golesh?
CFB

Noah Fifita Primed for Strong 2026 Campaign
CFB

Oregon Assistant Coach Charged with DUII, Reckless Driving
CFB

Tight End Nick Pollack Commits to Clemson
Akshay Bhatia

Needs the Driver to be True in Ohio
Aaron Rai

Primed to take on the Memorial Tournament
J.J. Spaun

Rebounded at Charles Schwab Challenge
Xander Schauffele

One to Watch This Week in Ohio
Elly De La Cruz

to Miss 2-4 Weeks of Action
Deiveson Figueiredo

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Song Yadong

Gets Second-Round Submission Win
Zhang Mingyang

Suffers Back-To-Back Losses
Alonzo Menifield

Gets Back In The Win Column
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Sergei Pavlovich

Scores First-Round Knockout Win
Cameron Smotherman

Suffers Third Loss In A Row
Kai Asakura

Earns His First UFC Win
Denny Hamlin

Earns the first Nashville Cup Series Victory of his Career on Sunday
Christopher Bell

Finishes as the Runner-Up at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Earns First Career Podium Finish at Nashville
Ryan Blaney

Scores A Solid Top-10 Finish at Nashville
Kyle Larson

Top-10 Streak at Nashville Ends after Late Flat Tire Spin
Tyler Reddick

Is One of the Top Favorites to Win at Nashville
Kyle Larson

May Continue his Top-10 Consistency at Nashville this week
Christopher Bell

Is One of the Top Competitors for the Win at Nashville
Chase Briscoe

Is A Must Start for Nashville DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Nashville DFS Lineups
William Byron

Is William Byron A Playable DFS Option for Nashville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar

Is Likely to have Another Solid Result at Nashville
NASCAR

Should Fantasy Players Roster Bubba Wallace at Nashville?
Chris Buescher

Is A Decent All-Around DFS Option for Nashville Lineups
Daniel Suarez

is Likely to Drop Positions during the Cracker Barrel 400
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF