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After every football season, there is turnover among NFL head coaches. Especially in today's game, coaches are expected to win early, so even coaches who became the head man of a franchise just a short time ago could be on the chopping block ahead of the 2023 campaign.
Whether a coach underperforms with a loaded roster, fails to take the next step in the early part of a rebuild, or regresses mightily from their early-career success, any of the coaches mentioned in this article could be looking for a new job at the conclusion of the 2023 NFL season.
Without further ado, let's dive into five (plus one honorable mention) NFL coaches who appear to be on the hot seat and are coaching for their jobs this upcoming season.
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NFL Head Coaches On the Hot Seat
Honorable Mention: Arthur Smith, Atlanta Falcons
Smith took over a franchise starving for cap space due to the contracts of Falcons' all-time greats Matt Ryan and Julio Jones. The team was depleted of talent, depth, and buying power in free agency, so Smith's 14-20 record over his first two seasons in Atlanta isn't much to panic about.
However, the NFC South is there for the taking in 2023. Tampa Bay lost Tom Brady, New Orleans has an aging and largely regressing roster, and Carolina will have a rookie QB in Bryce Young under center. Elsewhere in the NFC, there is a lack of high-end quarterbacks and the conference is viewed as significantly weaker than the AFC as a whole.
Based on Vegas' forecasted win total, the Falcons have the second-easiest strength of schedule in 2023. All that said, Smith should be able to guide the now-talented Atlanta team to a winning record for the first time in his career. If the team fails to be competitive, his seat could get hot.
5. Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints
The Saints' first season since 2005 without Sean Payton wasn't pretty as the franchise saw its first losing season (7-10) since 2016. In all fairness, the quarterback position was manned by Jameis Winston early on and Andy Dalton for most of the season, but the NFC South was won by the 8-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
New Orleans had the Buccaneers on the ropes in Week 13, holding a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter. New Orleans winning that contest could have put them in playoff position, so Allen losing a key game early in his Saints' career doesn't bode well for his negotiating power should the 2023 season go south. According to ESPN analytics, the Saints had a 97.7% chance to win that contest with just over five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter.
Ultimately, the Saints are refusing to undergo a rebuild and signed Derek Carr this offseason, so if the team isn't a contender in the NFC next season. Allen could be in trouble. He feels like a bridge coach after being promoted internally, so he'll likely have to exceed expectations in 2023 to keep his job.
4. Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bowles carried a 24-40 record from his time as the Miami Dolphins interim coach (three games) and New York Jets full-time coach (four seasons). The age-59 defensive mind is an old-school coach who seems to be behind the league trends and Bruce Arians more or less named him his own replacement after stepping down as the Buccaneers head man during the 2022 offseason. Tampa Bay regressed in all three phases of the game in 2022 and made the playoffs with an 8-9 record -- getting blown out by the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round.
That said, Tampa Bay's front office might not have a ton of loyalty for Bowles and he may be viewed as a bridge coach during the Bucs' rebuild in the post-Tom Brady era. Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask will operate as the team's starting quarterback next season, which likely doesn't set up well for the team's success.
Bowles could keep his job after 2023 if the franchise realizes the team isn't built to win anymore, but that's not always the case in the competitive NFL.
3. Josh McDaniels, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders went all in to compete in 2022, acquiring Davante Adams to join an offense with Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, and Hunter Renfrow and paring Chandler Jones to join the pass rush led by Maxx Crosby. However, the team jumped out to an 0-3 start, then found itself at 2-7 through nine weeks. Ultimately, the Silver and Black posted a 6-11 record
Needless to say, the season went nothing like the Las Vegas front office expected and there were rumblings that McDaniels could be let go after one year. However, he kept his job, and longtime quarterback Derek Carr became the scapegoat.
McDaniels has already held a head coaching job with the Denver Broncos and was fired after just two seasons with the team, so the Raiders likely won't have extra patience for the already experienced shot-caller. With Jimmy Garoppolo under center in the loaded AFC, it's tough to think the team will be a contender in 2023. McDaniels would be higher on this list if he wasn't going into just his second season, but his job is far from safe at this point.
2. Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Between his time in Carolina and Washington, Rivera has made the playoffs just once in his last five seasons. Washington made the playoff in 2020 but posted a 7-9 record. That said, it's been a while since his team was leading the NFC in 2015 under Cam Newton and he hasn't found much success since.
The franchise has failed to secure a high-level quarterback to run its offense, but Rivera was one of the main people calling for Carson Wentz to join the squad ahead of the 2022 season. All of a sudden, the NFC East is as good as it's been in decades -- and Washington looks to be at the bottom of the totem pole.
With a new ownership group set to take over the franchise, his days in Washington are numbered unless he pulls out an impressive campaign in 2023.
1. Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Staley likely has the hottest seat among all NFL head coaches heading into 2023. During the 2021 campaign, the team missed the playoffs in a win-or-tie-and-in situation in Week 18. The infamous game saw the Las Vegas Raiders attempt to kill the clock and end the game in a tie -- meaning both teams would make the playoffs. However, Staley called a timeout and Las Vegas drove down the field and made a game-winning field goal.
Then, the disaster in Jacksonville happened. Los Angeles led the Jaguars 27-0 with just over a minute left in the first half of the AFC Wild Card game. However, Trevor Lawrence and Co. roared back to outscore Justin Herbert's squad 31-3 from that point on. That was a heck of a red flag for a coach in his first playoff game and the team replaced both its coordinators shortly after.
If Los Angeles fails to win a playoff game in 2023, we should fully expect Staley to join the unemployment line. Time is running out to maximize Justin Herbert's Super Bowl window on a rookie contract.
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