The First Serve: DraftKings DFS Tennis Picks for 8/30/2021 (US Open)

August 29, 2021

Brandon Wampler picks his favorite matches to target for DFS lineups on Draftkings for the U.S. Open on Monday, August 31, 2021.

Hey there, RotoBallers! I am Brandon Wampler and I have been playing Tennis DFS since its conception.

Welcome to the very first edition of “The First Serve”! Today we will welcome the US Open back for another round with a crazy 44-match slate. Please keep in mind that during Majors there will be big upsets and crazy 6/6 linupes. It is encouraged to think outside the box during these tournaments, but not too much. All ATP matches are set to a Best-Of-5 and all WTA matches are set to a Best-Of-3.

In this article, you will find my favorite high-priced, mid-tier, and cheap plays for the DraftKings DFS Tennis slate on Monday, August 30, 2021. Without any further ado, let's get into the picks!

High Priced DFS Tennis Picks ($10K+)

Andrey Rublev DK: $11,300 vs Ivo Karlovic DK: $3,500

Rublev has quickly molded himself into quite an all-around player when it comes to serve and receive. At one point focused more on the receiving game, Rublev has now developed one of the better serve games in the ATP and he is now going up against one of the grizzled vets who has also made a name for himself with his serve in Karlovic. The major difference between the two is the receiving game of Rublev that topples anything Karlovic can whip up. Rublev also shines with 69.5% Break Points Saved, 45.3% Break Points Won, and 1.47 Break Points Ratio. When it gets down to the wire these stats are what drives the outcome of the match. Karlovic does not come anywhere near them with his respective 47.6% Break Points Saved, 27.8% Break Points Won, and 0.53 Break Points Ratio. Rublev will surely be a part of the 6/6 lineups for Day 1 of the US Open.

Expected Outcome: Rublev 3-0

Mid-Tier DFS Tennis Picks ($8K-$10K)

9K-$10K: Danielle Collins(26) DK:$9,900 vs Carla Suarez-Navarro DK:$5,100

Excluding her two latest matches, Collins has turned the corner once again winning 8 of her last 10 matches. Collins has struggled here and there throughout the season, but when she does it is expected that she grinds it out until she finds what is wrong and she fixes it. This is another one of those teaching moments as she climbs her way into the US Open ranked 26th. On the flip side, Suarez-Navarro has barely played this year and she is coming into the US Open on the wrong foot. Going against one of the more in-form WTA players with little to no game-level practice is not going to go over well with the grizzled vet. Expect Danielle to make quick work of her Round One opponent.

Expected Outcome: Collins 2-0

John Isner(19) DK:$8,100 vs Brandon Nakashima DK:$6,700

The pricing during Majors can be a little out of the norm with so much talent and not enough salary to go around. We find one of those situations here with the American John Isner. Isner is one of the strongest servers on the ATP and he is facing a younger American that is starting to develop into a well-rounded player. However, Isner still holds the serve game at the top, which is needed for Hard Court. The only issue is that Nakashima beats Isner by a landslide in the receiving department, which could cause some concerns if Isner cannot hold his serve. With Majors like the US Open, each match goes to a maximum of five sets and Isner is not one to last that long. If he cannot come out firing immediately, Nakashima could pull off an upset. Nevertheless, coming in at #19, Isner should be able to make it past Round One at a comfortable price.

Expected Outcome: Isner 3-1

Cheap Favorites ($7K-$8K)

Camila Giorgi DK:$7,200 vs Simon Halpe(12) DK:$7,600

Giorgi is another example of trials and tribulations just like Danielle Collins aforementioned. However, Giorgi has truly struggled this season so far and it was time she needed to make some drastic changes. Giorgi went and completely changed her routine for training and practicing and it has done wonders for her -- won 8 of the last 10 --. She has also had some time to recover after she pulled off the upset victory at the Masters. On the other hand, Halep is coming in at #12 ranked in the US Open. Halep has not fared as well and she has been very hit or miss over the past few years, instead of her consistent and successful self. This proves to be a fascinating matchup and below $8K for either player is a steal. However, Giorgi will look to continue her winning efforts here.

Expected Outcome: Giorgi 2-1

The Dog House (Underdog Values)

Jiri Vesely DK:$5,300 vs Kevin Anderson DK:$9,400

This matchup is more of a dog or pass type match. Vesely and Anderson are both good servers, but Vesely is the better of the two when it comes to receiving and patience. Big Kev is a monster server and he will swing all day long, which can burn him out or frustrate him if he is not hitting his serves correctly. Vesely has a more calm demeanor to him and he would rather dictate the match and place his shots instead of gas himself out as the match progresses. With a large discrepancy in pricing, it proves much better to rely on the cheap Vesely instead of handicapping your lineup with a possible dud in the $9K range.

Expected Outcome: Vesely 3-1

Herbert Pierre-Hugues DK:$8,400 vs Adrian Mannarino DK:$6,400

This is yet another pricing anomaly and a rather baffling one at that. In no way, shape or form should Pierre-Hugues be that price. Both players have been in terrible form this season, but at least Mannarino shows the will to grind matches out. I will be surprised if Mannarino is not north of 20% ownership in GPPs for the first day. Both players split in terms of serving and receiving, but Mannarino surely has the better patience game and it will prove vital in what is expected to be a back and forth matchup. 

Expected Outcome: Mannarino 2-3

ATP Rankings (All Rankings are adjusted by stats, form, and history; Worst 0 - 20 Best)

Rublev-20

Ruud-20

Tsitsipas-19

FAA-18.5

Dimitrov-14.5

Humbert-14

Giron-14

Popyrin-13.5

Vesely-8.5

Duckworth-8.5

Van De Zandschulp-8.5

Molcan-8.5

Isner-8.5

Daniel-8

Millman-4

Evans-3.5

Berankis-3.5

Cilic-3.5

Davidovich-3.5

Mannarino-3.5

Kukushkin-3

Paire-3

Zapata-3

Gombos-3

WTA Rankings (All Rankings are adjusted by stats, form, and history; Worst 0 - 20 Best)

Kerber-19

Alexandrova-18.5

Collins-15

Svitolina-14.5

Krejcikova-14.5

Muguruza-14

Vondrousova-14

Juvan-13.5

Rybakina-10

Konjuh-9

Garcia-9

Gauff-9

Konta-8.5

Osorio-8.5

Li-8.5

Begu-8.5

Sherif-8

Giorgi-4

Kanepi-3.5

Stephens-3

Thanks for reading The First Serve! Good luck in all of your contests today! If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else don’t hesitate to email me [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions