The Farmers Insurance Open Course Preview and Breakdown (2024 PGA DFS, Golf Betting Analysis)

12 months ago by Joe I (TourPicks)

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Hello and welcome to my official course and tournament preview piece for the 2024 Famers Insurance Open. The goal each week is to provide a comprehensive and in-depth look at the specs of the golf course (in this case courses) to help you best understand historical trends and stat profiles that have proven to be indicators of success at this tournament in the past. The golf course is the everchanging variable week to week on the PGA Tour and it is pivotal to understand the specs in great detail while researching the tournament.

Yet again we have a tournament held at multiple golf courses this week with both the Torrey Pines North and South Course in play during the first two days. Those players who make the cut, will proceed to play solely on the brute that is the South Course for the weekend. Unlike The American Express rota which features very similar course setups and lengths, these two courses couldn't be much more different. Last year the shorter and easier North Course played about 2-2.5 strokes easier than the South Course.

Farmers Insurance Open R1 scoring stats by course:
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Torrey Pines (North)
Field avg., 69.73 (-2.27)
Birdies-or-better, 347
Bogeys-or-worse, 169

Torrey Pines (South)
Field avg., 72.22 (+0.22)
Birdies-or-better, 295
Bogeys-or-worse, 296

— Underdog Golf (@Underdog__Golf) January 26, 2023

We have a ton of history and data to rely on when attempting to handicap players at Torrey Pines. To be completely honest, this tournament presents one of the more straightforward and simplistic tests that we see all year. Year and year we see the cream rise to the top at this event, predominantly because the skill set required to play well is ultimately possessed by the best in the world. Six of the last ten winners of the Farmers have been under 25/1 on the outright odds board.

An Introduction to the Courses

I'm going to focus all my attention this week to the South Course. If you want to win this tournament, you are going to have to tackle the South all weekend. That said, we have seen players in the past carve out a path to victory by pressing down the accelerator on the North, going low, and holding on for dear life at the South. To best set yourself up for success, you can play much more aggressively on the North Course, and should be looking to shoot a minimum or -5 under par if you want to have a great chance.

The South Course is as visually stunning as anything we see on television all year, yet also ridiculously monotonous and repeatable. All the par 4's are essentially rinse-and-repeat long holes that emphasize hitting a slender fairway and hitting a long approach shot into the green. I would say the most distinguishing characteristic of this course is the sheer length and its tendency to reward bombers and great long-iron players consistently over the years.

The William Bell design could use a modern facelift in my opinion. Despite the picturesque scenery and history, Torrey Pines is right in front of you and will ask a player to hit the fairway and then a 6 iron, over, and over, and over again. From an architectural standpoint, it is boring. The only redeeming qualities are that it constantly produces elite-level leaderboards and has a fantastic, dramatic closing hole that is always what you tend to remember.

Strong field for next week's Farmer's Insurance Open with 9 of the top-21 and 27 of the top-60 ranked players coming to Torrey Pines including...

5. Schauffele
6. Cantlay
7. Homa
12. Morikawa
16. Bradley
17. Straka
18. Day
20. Theegala
21. Finau
27. Im
28. Thomas
29. Aberg pic.twitter.com/9TLQjaImSs

— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) January 19, 2024

The Scorecard - Torrey Pines

Course Specs

As we mentioned earlier, both courses play vastly different. The South Course stretches well over 7,700 yards and plays as a par 72, making it one of the longest golf courses we see all season. The fairways look like strips of bacon from the overhead drone shots, and hitting them is extremely difficult in part because to are so straight. The North course shares many similarities with the fairway width and thick rough, it is just 500 yards shorter. There are very few doglegs which makes it harder for players to deploy shot shaping to maximize the width. On average, players only hit 52.5% of the fairways in regulation at the South Course.

While there is a large advantage coinciding with sheer distance off the tee, by far the biggest correlated stat to success is SG: Approach. In 2023, the top six players on the leaderboard all gained at least 1.3 strokes on approach per round. Much of this is due to the severity and unpredictable nature of the thick rough surrounding the greens. The scrambling rate is 55% at the South Course which plays under Tour average.

Lastly, let's take a look at these pesky green surfaces. While not overly difficult to the eye with everything appearing relatively flat, they constantly gives Tour players issues. They are average in size but actually play much smaller than the square footage in reality, because players are often hitting approach shots with long irons rather than wedges, thus shrinking the landing areas. The notoriously bumby POA greens produce some of the most 3 putts of any tournament, and the make percentage from 4-6 ft is 74%, which is also well below the Tour average and the most difficult greens on shorts putts that we see all year.

Torrey Pines

Design: 1957 William P. Bell and William F. Bell
Par 72, 7,765 yards
Fairways and rough: Kikuyu with rye overseed
Greens: 5,000 st ft Poa annua
1 holes with water in play
82 Bunkers

Statistical Considerations

As touched on briefly earlier in this piece, there is no confusion about the type of player skillset that yields results at Torrey Pines. Luke List won this event in 2022...find those kind of players! Given the distance and straightforward nature, you are going to want to hone in predominantly on bombers who are great long iron players. It's maybe the simplest recipe that we get all year, just follow the instructions and you will have a good week betting and in DFS.

While hitting fairways is always a plus, it's not a full-on requirement to win. In 2020, Marc Leishman won despite missing nearly every single fairway on the day. This said, the average penalty for a missed fairway is 0.13 strokes which would make it the 5th most penal of the year. The case for Leishman that year was that he barely missed the fairway and still gave himself an angle into the green on approach. Hitting your drive in the short grass on the par 5's is crucial, as all four of them on the scorecard are scoreable when hitting your second shot from the middle.

I wouldn't advise completely ignoring the short knockers this week though. If they possess an awesome short game, they can go well. Patrick Reed won this tournament by 5 shots in 2021 doing just that, and Mackenzie Hughes rode the same strategy at the US Open that year as well where he was surprisingly in contention late. Those players need to take apart the North Course and do their scoring, so pay close attention should you see them start off with a nice Thursday or Friday.

One last thing from my notes, don't be afraid to take a stand on players that start Sunday a few shots off the lead. The back nine is always dramatic for the leaders and the more you just try and make par, the tougher it is. Historically, On Sunday they set this course up to play significantly shorter, as they welcome players who play aggressively on the par 5's. Rahm blew a big lead in 2020 as Leishman charged from behind. Luke List posted a score very early in 2022 and the top-end players just failed to make any birdies late and he found his way into a playoff with Will Zalatoris. That year, Justin Rose, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, and Jon Rahm all failed to birdie the par five 18th hole to also get into that playoff. Don't ignore those chasers on Sunday!

Approach shot distribution from 2023 at Torrey Pines South via Datagolf: