Early-Season Fantasy Realities and Illusions: The Engel Eye

September 23, 2021

Scott Engel looks at some early-season fantasy performances and tells us what is for real and what may be illusions.

With just two weeks completed in the 2021 fantasy football season, we are still getting a feel for some emerging player trends. It may be too early to panic on some established standouts who are not quite performing up to expectations, while some surprise players out of the gate still have to prove themselves more to earn spots in our starting lineups.

Here are some early-season observations to consider, including possible fantasy football trade targets. When making the deal, always focus on filling a need or making a significant upgrade. Trading two similarly valued players at the same position may not accomplish much.

If you are really serious about completing a trade, put yourself on the other side of it and see if you would realistically accept. Making an offer where you stack quantity for quality rarely will get it done.

Early-Season Insights and Trade Targets

-Kliff Kingsbury’s vision for a deep and dangerous passing game is truly becoming a reality. The only issue may be figuring out which WR between Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore will be more productive each week. Both are very good starts against the Jaguars, and it won’t be easy to project on a consistent basis. It will depend on in-game execution and which guy can beat his defender on any given play. For this week, both Kirk and Moore deserve strong consideration.

-Picking up Cordarrelle Patterson makes sense, because RB options are scarce on waivers right now. But I would not consider him for lineup usage just yet. He is being utilized in a unique role that may not necessarily lead to consistent fantasy production. Patterson is being used as a nifty dual threat, gadget type of option, and the production could be very volatile.

-Justin Fields may start this week, but he is a risk. While he can be dynamic as a thrower and runner, he is also prone to errors. Fields will tend to hold onto the ball too long, and will be in danger of sacks and turnovers. There may be bouts of erratic play initially, so it’s best to sit him for now and monitor the progress if you can use another quality starting option.

-It appears we have a thunder/lightning RB situation developing in Dallas. Tony Pollard has been electric on the perimeter, while Ezekiel Elliott should remain the primary inside runner and goal-line option. The continued use of Pollard obviously threatens Elliott’s upside and RB1 status, but he remains a must-start as a drive finisher for what may be the best offense in the NFC. If you try to trade Elliott right now, you likely won’t get the proper return right now. So keep him locked in for the TD chances.

-There seems to be a lot of debate among my RotoBaller colleagues as to whether Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a trade target to buy on, or someone to totally avoid.

CEH got in full practices each day in both Weeks 1 and 2.

This is a bit of a stretch that exemplifies how people *continue* to make excuses for him. https://t.co/NCqsBAwPMM

— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 21, 2021

full practice =/ 100%

CEH probably isn’t in pain but his injury could still be limiting him or causing hesitance

Anyone who’s ever played any sport knows getting back is as much mental as physical https://t.co/vj1CEKakVa

— Kev Mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) September 21, 2021

My take is it would not be a major shock to see him soon emerge as a more satisfying fantasy producer, but I don’t see him busting out to become the statistical dynamo some have projected. The Chiefs have been very successful on offense while being one of the lowest teams in the league in run/pass ratio annually since Patrick Mahomes took over as a starter. I don’t think they mess with success to the point where Edwards-Helaire can suddenly increase his production in major ways. At this point, I would just be hoping we get more respectable production out of him. If you drafted Edwards-Helaire, trade him to someone who still believes he has possible RB1 upside.

-While Cooper Kupp has exploded out of the gates, Robert Woods has scored 12-plus PPR points in his first two games. The big Woods game is coming, though. Both top Rams WRs will have their big days with Matthew Stafford at QB. Kupp may indeed outproduce Woods overall, but I would not be worrying about Woods being the secondary guy so far. Kupp will get some heavier defensive focus now, and Woods should benefit in the near future. Stafford will make defenses pay with multiple targets this season.

-What we said about Woods also applies to DK Metcalf in terms of big games being just around the corner. Opponents seem to be determined to not let Metcalf bear them downfield, and Tyler Lockett has exploded in the first two games. Metcalf has still posted respectable fantasy totals in the first two games, and opponents must account for Lockett more or risk getting torched for 60-plus yard passes. Trade for Metcalf now if you can. If the Seahawks can run the ball effectively like they did in the season opener, it will set up Russell Wilson to beat defenses with both of his top WRs. The Seattle offense requires balance to have better chances of unleashing the big plays.

-Damien Harris’ 26-yard TD run against the Jets was a clear signal that he is ready to be the true lead RB for the Patriots. It was very Lynch-like, and also showed us that he was not going to let fumble issues from the previous week deter him. Bill Belichick does not tolerate turnovers, so as long as Harris holds onto the ball, he is going to stay on the field and will have the potential to solidify himself as a possible fantasy RB2 this season.

Damien Harris BULLDOZED for this TD. pic.twitter.com/YeMwgBSgq6

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 19, 2021

-Michael Carter started to see more action this week, and he should start to emerge as more of a fantasy producer as the season progresses. I have been talking about Carter as a promising and versatile playmaker all throughout the preseason. He adds needed spark to the Jets offense and in a few weeks, he should be an upside fantasy play. Add him now if he is available, or swing a lower-level trade for Carter in what will be a good forward-looking move.

-There seems to be a lot of frustration surrounding Antonio Gibson, but he is still the same RB who had 11 rushing TDs as a rookie. Even with J.D. McKissic still in the picture as a pass-catcher, Gibson is going to produce well. He is a shifty runner who will finish scoring drives frequently for an offense that should be steady under Taylor Heinicke or Ryan Fitzpatrick later in the year.

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