The Cut List – Who to Drop for Fantasy Football Week 16

December 19, 2023

Robert's fantasy football players to drop when making waiver wire moves for Week 16 (12/19/2023). He helps fantasy football managers decide on who to cut from rosters.

With just two weeks left, fantasy managers should be paying a lot of attention to the next two matchups. If you've made it this far, there likely isn't a whole lot of roster tinkering left. You're not still standing unless you're relatively healthy with some studs in the starting lineup. If that's the case, there's no need to make big moves to your roster. However, if you're looking to make some roster moves, this article will look at several players who can be cut and whose fantasy value is falling.

Any player listed on the Cut List isn't a player that needs to be cut. They're just cuttable players, that's all. Each situation is different. Each league is different. If your league hordes quarterbacks, you may not have the luxury of dropping a struggling passer. It's important to understand your leagues and how your opponents value players. With that said, hopefully, this article will give you some advice on which players you can safely send to the waiver wire.

Deciding who to cut can always be a difficult process, but it's important to take emotions out of the equation. Below you'll find the biggest names that managers can safely cut in traditional 10 and 12-team leagues. You will also find players that you should hold if possible. If you have any questions, give me a follow @RobFFSlayer and shoot me a message. My DMs are always open and I’m more than willing to answer questions.

Quarterbacks to Cut in Week 16?

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders – 76% Rostered

Fantasy managers simply cannot start him anymore. Anytime a player is benched due to bad performance, especially at quarterback, they virtually need to be cut. Once that possibility becomes a reality, there's absolutely no trust in them anymore. With fantasy managers now in the fantasy playoffs, they cannot risk having Howell benched in Week 16 in a win-or-go-home playoff contest. If that wasn't enough of a reason to drop him, his Week 16 and 17 matchups are. He faces the Jets in Week 16 who have allowed the second-fewest points to quarterbacks this season. In Week 17, he has to play the 49ers who have allowed the fifth-fewest points to quarterbacks. These are two of the most difficult matchups for a quarterback. Could he play badly enough to get benched again? It's certainly a possibility. He's been awful in the past two games. In Weeks 13 and 15 (Week 14 bye) he's completed under 50% of his passes and has a combined 229 passing yards. He has one touchdown and two interceptions. If it wasn't for his two rushing touchdowns in Week 13, he'd have back-to-back weeks of under 10 points.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks – 67% Rostered 

Smith has now missed the last two weeks due to a groin injury. He practiced in a limited capacity leading up to Week 15, so it seems likely that he'll return this upcoming week. However, he'll still be coming off a two-week absence. He'll return to a Week 16 matchup on the road against the Titans. They've allowed the 12th-fewest points to quarterbacks this season. Due to his injury, his first game back after a two-week absence, a road game, and a tough opponent, Geno is a very tough player to trust in Week 16. Considering the number of quarterback injuries, fantasy managers may not have a choice but to keep Smith on their roster. In Week 17, they'll face off against the Steelers. This is no easy contest either. They've allowed the 11th-fewest points to quarterbacks this season. I'd categorize Howell as a must-cut, but Smith isn't in that same category. He's someone that fantasy managers can move on from if they have another quality starter. He has enough red flags and question marks over the next two weeks.

Running Backs to Cut in Week 16?

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders – 67% Rostered

I was intrigued by Gibson getting the start this past weekend with starter Brian Robinson Jr. being ruled out. Instead of Gibson being a workhorse, which was the expectation, Washington opted to use a three-man rotation. Gibson played on 28 snaps, Chris Rodriguez Jr. played 19, and Jonathan Williams played 13. While Gibson led the way he played on just 46.7% of the team's snaps, far from a lead-back role that many were hoping for. From Weeks 1-13, with Robinson active, Gibson scored double-digit half-PPR points just twice. On five occasions, he was held to below six half-PPR points. Now we've seen what this backfield looks like sans Robinson, and the results weren't pretty. This past weekend, Gibson scored just 6.0 half-PPR points. Gibson has been mostly irrelevant with a healthy Robinson and this past weekend, even with Robinson inactive, Gibson continued to be irrelevant.

Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears – 48% Rostered / D'Onta Foreman, Chicago Bears – 46% Rostered

This backfield has become a three-man rotation that virtually nuked the value of all three players. Roschon Johnson played 37 of the team's 72 snaps. Foreman played 18 and Herbert played 17 snaps. Johnson's passing role afforded him more snaps, but it didn't increase his fantasy relevance. Herbert and Foreman both had six carries, while Johnson had five. Despite a mouth-watering matchup in Week 16 against the Cardinals, fantasy managers will have an incredibly tough time trusting any of these three running backs based on this past weekend's utilization. Neither player can be trusted in the starting lineup this upcoming weekend. Then in Week 17, the Bears will play the Falcons and they've been a very difficult matchup for running backs. They've allowed the third-fewest points to running backs this season. Between the shared workload and the very difficult Week 17 matchup, fantasy managers will have a hard time trusting either player in either of the remaining two weeks.

Wide Receivers to Cut in Week 16?

Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills – 83% Rostered

Since Buffalo fired Ken Dorsey, Davis hasn't just been bad. He's been invisible. It's crazy that Davis has not one, not two, but three games with a single point. It actually gets even worse though. Zero points doesn't necessarily mean no involvement. It's possible, albeit unlikely, that he's just been super unlucky. However, Davis has not one, not two, but three games with no targets. With the new offensive coordinator, fantasy managers could chalk up that first goose egg as the offense working out the kinks with a new play-caller. However, it's impossible to make any valid excuses with three targetless games out of four since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator. The Bills have also gotten their running game going in the past few games. In fact, in their game this past weekend, Josh Allen completed just seven out of 15 passes. The Bills ran the ball 39 times. With that slight shift in their pass/run splits and the fact that he hasn't been targeted in three of four games, Davis can be cut.

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders – 61% Rostered

He's been terrible all year. Washington plays the Jets in Week 16 and the 49ers in Week 17. Unless you play in the deepest of leagues, he should be cut. There's not a matchup left on the Washington schedule where fantasy managers could even use him as a streamer, even in a desperate situation.

Uh-Oh...

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars – 95% Rostered

Lawrence currently finds himself in the concussion protocol after a tough Sunday Night game against the Ravens. Recovery times for players with concussions vary greatly. Some do not miss any time. Others miss one game, others miss two, and some miss even more than that. On average, most players tend to miss at least one game, which puts Lawrence on the wrong side of questionable for Week 16. That would be a major blow to fantasy managers because he has an excellent matchup this week against the Buccaneers. Fantasy managers shouldn't drop him right now, but he's in danger of spending the rest of the fantasy football playoffs on the bench. Lawrence will be tough to trust in Week 17. He plays against the Panthers who have allowed the fewest points to quarterbacks this season. Lawrence hasn't been a must-start option this year and in one of the toughest matchups of the year, he is someone fantasy managers could bench. His rest of the season value is falling.

RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings – 86% Rostered

Teammate Ty Chandler showed out this past weekend with 23 carries, 132 yards, and a rushing touchdown. He also chipped in three receptions and 25 receiving yards. Following the contest, reports indicated Chandler will be in a featured role the following week. Whether or not Mattison is back on the field, it seems as though Chandler has earned No. 1 duties moving forward. That doesn't mean Mattison should be cut, but his value is certainly on the decline. He'll be virtually impossible to trust in Week 16 in his first game back following his sprained ankle and due to Chandler's breakout game. Not only that, but the Vikings play against the Lions who have allowed the second-fewest points to running backs this season. That's because they've been a pass-funnel defense. I don't expect Chandler to be a workhorse back, so Mattison could very well still see seven to ten touches a game, which could give him RB3 value yet, which is why I wouldn't recommend cutting him, but his value is falling fast.

WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers – 70% Rostered

Watson has been inactive for the past two weeks with another hamstring injury. He struggled with a hamstring injury earlier in the season which caused him to miss multiple games. He missed games last year due to a hamstring injury. There is no positive indicator he'll be active in Week 16. He did not practice in any capacity leading up to Week 15. That doesn't bode well for his availability this upcoming weekend. Even if he is active, there's no trusting him in his first game back, especially with the history of his hamstring injuries. He'd be likely to be on a snap count and not only that, but the matchup is terrible. The Packers play the Panthers who have given up the third-fewest points to receivers this season. The Packers play the Vikings in Week 17, which is a positive matchup, but it could very well be Watson's first game back if he's not active this upcoming weekend. With the way Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks have played this season, coming off a hamstring injury, Watson is unlikely to return to a full-time role. His value is declining rapidly and fantasy managers will have a hard time trusting him in any matchup for the rest of the year.

More Fantasy Football Analysis