The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 25

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 25 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. Normally, we cover players who are worth monitoring for replacing and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. With just three weeks of the regular season left, there simply isn't time to 'monitor' someone for a week or two so we're doing things a little differently.

For the remainder of the season, we're just going to look at players who are likely worth cutting in some (or all) league formats as well as the usual names you requested on Reddit. As always, we can't cover every player and the decision to drop someone is also dependant on who you will replace them with. It's the time of year where dropping a productive player in a certain category is also justifiable if you can benefit in another category you can score more roto points in.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump a star for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. After last year's shortened season and lack of a Minor League season, we're into a bit of an unknown with some players having made more appearances this year than the last two combined. Another little wrinkle we need to consider in our decision-making. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Cody Bellinger - 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - 82% rostered

Weeks ago, Bellinger was the featured player on The Cut List. Back then, I stated that it's perfectly fine to drop him if you can deal with the FOMO of him potentially being picked up by a league mate and going ham for a couple of weeks. The threat of that happening has pretty much disappeared.

Since his last inclusion here, Bellinger has been bumped down to eighth or ninth in the batting lineup and is being platooned. He's got a .149/.183/.298 since August 01st and in September, is currently 0-for-25. The platooning of Bellinger shouldn't come as a surprise given he's slugging .175 against left-handed pitching (LHP) this year. His .335 slugging percentage against RHP isn't anything to write home about either so he's fortunate to be starting games at all.

I don't know what has caused Bellinger to be so bad this year. Whether it's a health issue, a change in mechanics, just a massive down year or a combination of factors. Whatever it is, 2021 will likely go down as the worst of his career. Just two years removed from being the NL MVP, Bellinger has a -0.9 fWAR. There are 230 MLB players who have had 300+ plate appearances this year. Only one of them has a lower wRC+ than Bellinger (45)

Verdict - I sincerely hope Bellinger can find some form in the postseason and returns to form next season. I hate being negative about a player but for fantasy purposes, rostering Bellinger is like a band-aid you've been sporting on your arm for the last three days. The thought of ripping it off is much worse than the actual action and once it's done, you'll feel so much better for it.

Willy Adames - SS, Milwaukee Brewers - 60% rostered

Adames was having a breakout season following his trade to the Brewers back in May. Since moving to Milwaukee, Adames is hitting .294/.375/.529 with 21 homers, 52 runs, 51 RBI and four steals in 88 games. Adames long said that he struggled to pick up the ball when hitting at Tropicana Field and his .217/.275/.341 career line at the ballpark backs him up.

Unfortunately, a Quad injury saw Adames hit the IL last weekend but he appears to be on the mend. Earlier this week, he hit the batting cages and that was followed by an on-field workout. The concern comes from his comments (reported by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinal) where Adames said he may not be 100% recovered from the Quad injury until the offseason.

Given the Brewers have a 12 game lead in the NL Central and look set to be the no.2 seeds in the National League, the Brewers would be wise to give Adames as much time as possible to get as close to 100% healthy prior to the playoffs. It would make zero sense in rushing him back and having Adames play through discomfort which won't get any better and could jeopardize his availability in the postseason.

Verdict - Adames being on the IL means you can leave him there on your fantasy teams, providing you aren't burning the spot for someone else. After first experiencing the issue in late August, Adames had just one extra-base hit in 27 plate appearances, which could act as a guide for what to expect from him should he be activated before the postseason. Unless you need the IL or roster spot Adames is occupying, you can hold him but I've yet to see anything to suggest he'll get back to being a force at the plate over the final days of the regular season.

Lou Trivino - RP, Oakland Athletics - 48% rostered

Trivino was having himself quite the season up until August 21st. Prior to then, Trivino had tallied 21 saves with a miserly 1.72 ERA from 57.2 IP. Then, Trivino's next five outings were disastrous, allowing 13 earned runs in 3.2 IP  and has all but pitched himself out of consideration for saves. Those five outings saw Trivino's ERA jump to 3.52.

If we look at his numbers, the warning signs were there before his recent meltdowns. Prior to Trivino's last five outings, he had a 4.46 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA. He had a 20.5% K% and 11.5% BB%, both of which are worse than the 25th percentile. Trivino's 4.42 xERA is in the 36th percentile and suggests what we've seen in the last two weeks is just regression to the norm, albeit a slight overcorrection in such a short timeframe.

Trivino's relief appearance on Friday was his first in a week as it appeared as though the A's wanted to give him time to work things out. He did pitch a clean inning with one strikeout on Friday but he'll need to string together a few similar outings if he's to get back into the late innings mix and be a consideration for saving games again.

Verdict - It's difficult to see Trivino get many save opportunities over the remainder of the season and with the low strikeout rate and recent struggles, Trivino holds little to no value in fantasy leagues without saves. Time is running out for Trivino to work his way back into consideration for the high leverage spots and the A's have multiple options for saves already.

Kyle Freeland - SP, Colorado Rockies - 18% rostered

Freeland has been one of the most dropped pitchers in fantasy over the last few days. That's unsurprising given his start on Monday saw him allow seven earned runs in 4.1 IP. That came on the back of an injury-shortened appearance on September 01st when Freeland left the game after completing just one inning due to a hip injury. Last night, Freeland allowed four earned runs on five hits and four walks in six innings (striking out three).

You might look at Freeland's 4.76 ERA or his 20.6% K% and wonder why he was even being rostered in fantasy. That's because, for a long period, Freeland was pitching extremely well. Injury prevented him from making his season debut until late May and his first five starts (20.2 IP) saw him have an ERA of 9.58.

Following that rough start to the season, Freeland then put together a 2.66 ERA over 71.0 IP (13 starts) before his last two outings. These last two outings are what has me concerned as they came on the back of the injury-shortened start and he's walked seven batters in his last 10.1 IP. Prior to that, he walked seven in his previous 49.0 IP which makes me question if he is fully healthy or hampered by that hip issue.

Verdict - Even if Freeland is healthy, he's lined up for one more road start before finishing his season with two home starts. Given he has a 5.32 ERA at home this year, a 20.6% K% and pitches for a team with a .455 winning percentage, there's not much in the way of upside for fantasy purposes. Freeland is a streaming option in deeper leagues only.

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Aaron Nola - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 97% rostered

Nola is on track to have his worst season since 2016. Through 28 starts (157.1 IP), he has a 7-8 record, 4.57 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. That's despite putting up the lowest BB% of his career (5.4%) and having a 29.4% K% which is the highest he's had in any season apart from last year. Nola's BB% is in the 89th percentile and the K% is in the 84th percentile.

Nola has struggled throughout August and September with a 5.45 ERA from his seven starts (36.1 IP) and he's only completed six innings once in that spell. But his underlying numbers suggest Nola has been unlucky, not just recently, but all season. Over the last seven starts, Nola has a 3.45 xFIP and 3.26 SIERA. Over the course of this year, Nola has a 3.44 xFIP and 3.31 SIERA while his 3.58 xERA ranks in the 71st percentile.

While his results haven't been ideal, Nola's strikeouts still provide a solid floor in fantasy with five or more strikeouts in 23 of his 28 starts and seven or more in 18 starts. Nola is tied-8th in total strikeouts this season so has been especially valuable in the category in roto leagues. He's currently on schedule to make five more starts with three of them coming against the Rockies today (h), Orioles (h) and Marlins (a). If you have stuck with him all season, now's likely not the time to drop him.

Kyle Hendricks - SP, Chicago Cubs - 86% rostered

Hendricks has had a very much up-and-down season so far. In 29 starts, he's allowed six or more earned runs on six occasions and has had 11 outings of six or more innings while allowing one or zero earned runs. That's been true in recent times too. Of his last six starts, two have been six innings and one run outings while he's also allowed six, eight and nine earned runs in three of the starts.

It's been feast or famine from Hendricks but despite pitching on a Cubs team that has a 65-78 record, he's managed to tally 14 wins and has had 19 quality starts. The big downside of rostering Hendricks is the lack of strikeouts, just 122 in 166.2 IP with a 16.9% K% (his lowest since his debut season in 2014). That significantly caps his upside in fantasy when compared to someone like Nola.

And unlike Nola, Hendricks hasn't been unlucky. He's got a 4.83 xERA, 4.58 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA on the year. He's scheduled for four more starts (Phillies, Twins, Pirates and Cardinals) so doesn't have a bad run of opponents to see out the season. But his boom or bust nature this year leaves it difficult to trust Hendricks against anyone. I'd still keep him in deeper leagues but understand dropping him in shallow leagues or maybe just streaming him and hoping you don't start him when he has one of his dreadful outings.

Michael Brantley - OF, Houston Astros - 83% rostered

Brantley homered in the first game after the All-Star break. He's only homered twice more since. That's been the letdown for fantasy managers rostering Brantley this year, just eight homers in 116 games. That has also contributed to Brantley driving in just 45 runs this season. He has scored 68 runs himself and has a .315/.367/.441 line on the year, with his batting average being his highest since 2014.

Given Brantley has only reached 20 homers twice in his career and his 162-game average prior to this year is 15 home runs, maybe the ~10 he looks like finishing the season with is actually a better expectation of his power given he's now 34-years-old. The 22 homers he hit in 2019 appear to be an outlier rather than the norm, but he is still on track for his fourth consecutive season of putting up a .300 plus batting average.

The power numbers are lacking but Brantley is still a solid (albeit boring) contributor in fantasy. In points leagues where strikeouts are negatively scored, Brantley is more valuable to your fantasy teams due to his 10.1% K%, which is in the 99th percentile. In roto leagues, if you have a big lead in batting average and runs, Brantley can come into consideration for being dropped if you can pick up someone who will help you more in categories you need a boost in.

Joey Gallo - OF, New York Yankees - 83% rostered

Gallo's move to the Bronx hasn't quite panned out as hoped. Since the trade, Gallo is hitting .136/.301/.341 which is a very Galloesque slash line. He has tallied seven homers, 20 runs and 14 RBI in 39 games but has dropped down the batting order and has hit sixth most recently while the Yankees have only scored 37 runs this month (ten games).

His 40.5% K% is high even for him but he has maintained his elite BB% (19.0%) with the Yankees and his 19.1% BB% on the year is in the 100th percentile. Given had a career .208 batting average coming into 2021, it shouldn't be a surprise when he has such a low average over a few weeks. In fact, Gallo only has one month on the season in which he's hit above .220 (.263 in June) and has put up a sub-.170 average in each month since. If you drafted or rostered Gallo at any point, you should know he will put up a ~.200 batting average but has the power to make it worthwhile and this year is no different.

He's hit 32 homers with 77 runs, 69 RBI and six steals while hitting .197 (134 games). It wouldn't come as a surprise if Gallo hit another five or six homers in the final three weeks of the season and in reality, having a sub-.200 average over the next three weeks won't be any more harmful to your team than it would have been during any point of the season. I'd lean towards keeping Gallo rostered in case he does have one of his hot streaks to end the season with.

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