The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 24

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 24. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding onto...for now.

We've reached the final month of the regular season. Head-to-head leagues are in their playoffs and roto leagues are coming to a conclusion with time still available to turn things around. At this stage of the season, it's not just a player's performances that give reason to drop someone. Playing time, schedules and injuries will also play a factor and are reflected in this week's edition.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year progresses, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Esteury Ruiz - OF, Oakland Athletics - 60% rostered

Back in March, I stated that Ruiz will lead the league in stolen bases while tallying more steals than runs and RBI. So far this year, Ruiz has three homers, 40 RBI, 42 runs and 54 steals while hitting .250/.306/.337 (109 games).

The second part of that prediction is set to come to fruition. The first part may well have come true as well if it wasn't for Ruiz missing a month with a shoulder injury. What would possess me to justify dropping the player who has a 162-game pace of 81 steals?

Simply put, since returning from injury, Ruiz barely plays. Lawrence Butler has been getting regular starts in his place. Since his return from the IL on August 05, Ruiz has had just 66 plate appearances and hit .211/.286/.386 in the process.

It looks to be a platoon between the two, with Ruiz garnering some starts in left field against righties too. Ruiz started Wednesday's game against Bryce Miller and then again on Friday, facing Patrick Sandoval. In those two starts, Ruiz went 5-for-8 with three extra-base hits and three stolen bases.

He's definitely making the most of his time in the starting lineup. Ruiz then retreated to the bench on Saturday when the A's faced rightie Griffin Canning. It seems clear that Ruiz won't get a regular starting role back without someone getting injured.

Ruiz still picked up ten stolen bases in August despite having just nine hits all month. He stole a base on Friday, two bases on Wednesday and another two last Sunday. They're the only three games Ruiz has started since August 23.

There's no denying his speed and Ruiz causes chaos on the bases. The problem is getting on base. He's not quite at the level of Billy Hamilton when it comes to hitting but his 3.7% BB% will hold him back from reaching his fantasy ceiling.

How much of a nightmare is Esteury Ruiz on the base-pathes? Even when a team try’s to pitch-out it doesn’t matter.

He steals 2nd, takes 3rd on the errors and trots home to score when Ryan Noda followed with a double. #Athletics pic.twitter.com/vwr0RJviBt

— Joe Hughes (@VegasJoeHughes) August 30, 2023

Because of Ruiz's speed and willingness to run amok on the bases, he's always a good bet to score runs as well. Ruiz scored seven runs in August and five from his last 14 plate appearances.

After spending the majority of the first half as the A's leadoff hitter, a lot of Ruiz's recent starts have come hitting eighth or ninth in the order. Friday's start against a leftie came as the leadoff hitter. Against righties, Ruiz doesn't lead off anymore and that will of course harm his value also.

Ruiz would still be a very good fantasy option hitting ninth as long as he was an everyday starter. That has not been the case for the last few weeks and the playing time continues to diminish.

Verdict: In leagues with daily roster moves, where you're in need of steals and have large enough benches to stash Ruiz when he isn't starting, then I'd roster him. But outside of a couple of those circumstances applying to you, I'd have no issue dropping Ruiz. In dynasty leagues, I'd still look at holding him. 

Starling Marte - OF, New York Mets - 58% rostered

As mentioned in the introduction, playing time and injuries are bigger factors in our decision-making at this stage of the season. Marte certainly falls into that category.

He hit the IL in early August with a groin injury and the news (or lack of it) regarding the injury is concerning. Buck Showalter gave an update earlier this week, although the update raised more questions than gave answers.

Buck Showalter provides injury updates on Starling Marte and Edwin Diaz & reflects on his time managing Max Scherzer ahead of 3-game set with Rangers #Mets pic.twitter.com/bW4T7SDGPJ

— New York Post Sports (@nypostsports) August 28, 2023

Given Marte is under contract with the Mets for the next two years, if there is any doubt about him returning this year, the Mets will likely shut him down. Of course, the fact he's undergoing "physical therapy in Philadelphia" could mean he's close to a return but I wouldn't like to wager anything on that.

Even if Marte does return, he's on the brink of having the worst season of his MLB career. In 86 games, he's hit .248/.301/.324 with five homers, 28 RBI, 38 runs and 24 stolen bases. Outside of the stolen bases, there's been very little offered by Marte.

Given he's out with a groin injury, even if Marte does return this month, how much running will he do? The Mets' current situation and their likely desire to protect him for next season at least would lead me to believe not much.

If the Mets were still in playoff contention (or had a better offense), or Marte was performing as fantasy managers expected, I'd say he's worthwhile stashing. There are just too many red flags and negative issues with him this year, so I'm out.

Verdict: If you have a spare IL spot at this stage of the season, consider yourself lucky and by all means, use it for Marte. If you do not have that luxury or need the spot for someone who is able to assist your team, Marte is someone you can consider a safe drop.

Amed Rosario - 2B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - 53% rostered

When Rosario was traded to the Dodgers, there was a hope that he could turn his ailing season around. Unfortunately, that hasn't turned out the be the case. And going back to the introduction, there's also a playing-time issue that needs addressing.

First, if we look at Rosario's numbers with the Guardians and the Dodgers, we can see little improvement. Rosario has scored and driven in more runs per plate appearance and the power has gone from non-existent to noticeable. Still, there is nothing to get excited about from a fantasy perspective.

Rosario's start on Thursday was his first this week and he started again on Friday (going 2-for-4). They were his first back-to-back starts since August 13. He barely faces right-handed pitching (RHP) anymore which is obviously a huge problem for Rosario's fantasy value.

Thursday's start was his first against a RHP since the previous Wednesday (when the Dodgers' game with the Guardians was suspended until the next day). The six games facing a rightie starter in between those saw Rosario start on the bench.

Given Rosario has a 68 wRC+ against RHP and 126 wRC+ against LHP this year, it makes sense for the Dodgers to platoon him. This is nothing new as he has an 83 wRC+ against RHP and 125 wRC+ against LHP in his career.

When Rosario does play against LHP, he performs well. That still doesn't make him worthwhile rostering if you have daily lineup moves as he normally gets pinch hit for when the opponents bring in a rightie from the bullpen.

If anything, Rosario is a decent DFS play but that's about it. He's headed into free agency this offseason and unless he somehow has a big offseason and helps the Dodgers reach the World Series, it's unlikely he's headed to a big payday.

Verdict: Rosario's playing time hasn't just dried up. It's shriveled into a moldy old prune. Unless the Dodgers have a run of facing five LHP, it's difficult to see how he will offer any value during any week. Even in deeper leagues, I'd be looking for someone else, who actually plays a few times a week.

Hold For Now

Bo Bichette - SS, Toronto Blue Jays - 99% rostered

Bichette was placed on the IL earlier this week with a quadriceps strain. It was the second time in August that Bichette hit the IL, after missing a fortnight earlier in the month with a knee injury.

Bichette hasn't quite hit the heights fantasy managers expected this year. In 114 games, he's tallied 18 homers 62 RBI, 54 runs and three stolen bases with a .314/.344/.488 slash line. That's only enough to rank as the 11th shortstop although he's ranked 59th overall.

Obviously, Bichette's batting average leaps off the page and is seventh seventh-best among qualified hitters. The Blue Jays offense has been disappointing, ranking 14th in runs scored (616). In 2022, they ranked fourth (775) and that has certainly held back Bichette's fantasy value this year.

The good news is, Bichette hasn't been lucky with his slash line and as we can see from his Statcast Profile, his expected numbers are excellent. It's also a good time to show off Baseball Savant's new look player pages.

Bichette has a .316 xBA, .503 xSLG and .366 xwOBA (.357 wOBA). If anything, he's been a little unlucky, especially in the power department. That being said, Bichette only has 16.0 xHR.

The one clear statistical regression we've seen with Bichette is the steals. His 27.0 ft/s average sprint is down from 27.5 ft/s in 2022 and 28.0 ft/s in 2021. Given that Bichette has now had two IL stints due to leg injuries, there's a possibility he's been dealing with some issues throughout the season.

On Friday, manager John Schneider said Bichette could be activated when first eligible on September 08. If that is the case, we could still get over three weeks of production from him.

At this stage of the season, his batting average won't be as beneficial and the counting stats haven't been particularly great. But Bichette still warrants rostering providing we don't receive any news of setbacks or him being shut down for a prolonged period.

Chris Sale - SP, Boston Red Sox - 76% rostered

If there was an award for unluckiest injuries, Sale would be a frontrunner. After suffering a rib fracture in Spring last year, Sale returned to the mound but made just two starts. It was during his second start that a comebacker fractured his left little finger.

This year, Sale missed more than two months after breaking his right wrist in a biking incident. That has limited Sale to making just 15 starts so far. He's got a 5-3 W-L record, 4.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 96 Ks (77.2 IP) on the year.

While the ERA might be a concern, Sale can consider himself unlucky on the performance front too. So far this year, Sale has a 3.70 xFIP, 3.47 SIERA and .311 BABIP. We are looking at a smaller sample than many other starting pitchers.

Larger differences like this are more likely in smaller samples. If we look at his cumulative ERA and xFIP, we can see that Sale's performance consistency hasn't been matched by his results. Although things have improved as the season has progressed.

In Sale's four starts since returning from the IL, he has a 5.30 ERA but a 3.90 xFIP and 3.43 SIERA. Luck on and off the field clearly seems to be lacking.

Since his return from the IL, Sale has yet to complete more than 5.0 IP. That will obviously hinder him from returning fantasy value as wins will not be forthcoming if that trend continues. The good news is, Sale appears to at least be ramping up his workload.

His pitch count has increased from 58, then 65, 80 and now 92 pitches in his most recent start. His two last starts both coming against the Astros were not ideal for his fantasy managers either.

Sale's next three starts are scheduled to be against the Royals, Orioles and then the Yankees. Not great (the Royals offense has been pretty good lately) but certainly not something that would make you hide behind the couch.

Sale still has a good chance to be a valuable fantasy option in September. Assuming he's now 100% ramped up and can go deeper in games, Sale can help across the board. That's provided the hex that seems to have affected Sale over the last two seasons doesn't present itself anymore.

Michael Lorenzen - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 65% rostered

The deadline acquisition of Lorenzen certainly looked like a shrewd one. His first two starts with the Phillies saw him follow up a two-run performance (8.0 IP) with a no-hitter. Unfortunately, his three starts since the no-no has seen Lorenzen put up a 7.80 ERA.

Lorenzen started July with three consecutive outings allowing no runs (18.2 IP). Up to the no-hitter, he'd been stellar for a couple of months. After allowing six earned runs in 6.0 IP against the Braves on June 14, Lorenzen rattled off nine starts with a 2.06 ERA, culminating in the no-hitter.

Obviously, the last three starts have been bad but shouldn't be enough to warrant dropping Lorenzen and barely justify including him in The Cut List (even as a hold). But there are a couple of factors that make it worthwhile looking a little deeper.

Over the season, Lorenzen has an 8-8 W-L record, 3.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 103 Ks (137.2 IP). His 18.7% K% ranks in the 18th percentile. That's the one thing really holding Lorenzen back from being a top-30 SP this year.

His 4.52 xFIP and 4.69 SIERA also suggest he's been lucky and maybe his last three outings are examples of natural regression hitting. In his five starts with the Phillies, Lorenzen has a 5.47 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA to go with his 4.22 ERA, so perhaps that is the case.

Lorenzen's schedule is appealing, with starts against the Padres, Marlins and Cardinals coming up. The Marlins (96) and Cardinals (98) rank 30th and 28th respectively for runs scored since August 01. It'll be a great indicator as to whether Lorenzen's luck has run out this year.

Before I scare anyone away from holding on to Lorenzen, there is one noticeable positive aspect of his arsenal since the trade. If we look at the below pitch usages this season, we can see that he's been throwing his fastball and changeup more, while decreasing the slider usage.

The reason this is a good thing is the numbers on each of those three pitches. This year, Lorenzen's four-seamer and changeup have been his best two pitches. While his slider has been lagging behind. The below table shows the numbers for each of those three pitches.

While Lorenzen's changeup and fastball have similar actual and expected numbers, his slider has considerably worse expected numbers. So if his luck is running out, throwing his slider less should mitigate some of that.

Given Lorenzen's upcoming schedule and the apparent realization that he needed to change his pitch usage, I'd continue rolling him out there on my teams. I'm not as confident as some might be in Lorenzen but there's still enough in his profile to warrant starting him for the remainder of 2023.

On the Hot Seat

Andrew Abbott - SP, Cincinnati Reds - 74% rostered

The June call-up of Abbott not only appeared to give the Reds a shot at winning the NL Central. He also gave fantasy managers a chance to help them to a fantasy crown. That was until recently.

Abbott's Major League career couldn't have gotten off to a better start. Three consecutive scoreless starts (17.2 IP) were followed up by striking out 30 in his next three starts (19.2 IP). At that stage, Abbott had a 4-0 W-L record and 1.21 ERA.

As you would expect, that didn't last and Abbott will be happy to see the back of August. We can see Abbott's numbers by month since his call-up in the below table.

What's noticeable is how Abbott's ERA has fluctuated so much in the three months yet his xFIP and SIERA have been quite steady. That's something we see regularly in small samples and monthly numbers (five or six starts) are a small sample.

Just as concern about Abbott was reaching its peak, yesterday he had his best start since late July. Abbott allowed just one run (a solo shot to Jeimer Candelario) in 6.1 IP against the Cubs. The Reds offense didn't turn up until the ninth inning so he didn't pick up the win for his efforts.

On the season, Abbott now has an 8-4 W-L record, 3.22 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 104 Ks (95.0 IP). He has a 4.49 xFIP and 4.23 SIERA so across all 17 starts, Abbott can consider himself fortunate.

There is one large elephant in the room. And that is Abbott's workload. He's currently up to 149.0 IP across three levels this year. That's already a career-high and a considerable jump from the 118.0 IP Abbott totaled last year.

In seven of his first 12 starts, Abbott threw more than 100 pitches. Over his last five starts, the most Abbott has thrown in a game is 98 (August 11). He did reach 97 pitches yesterday but is averaging 87.8 pitches in his last five starts.

Abbott's walk rate is also another significant issue. His 9.2% BB% isn't dreadful (34th percentile) but will continue to hold him back, especially from going deep enough in games to pick up more wins. He failed to complete six innings in any of his previous six starts before yesterday.

There's been no talk of shutting Abbott down, although I suspect if the Reds get eliminated from the playoff hunt at any point, that'll be it for him this year. And until such time, the Reds will likely play things carefully with Abbott's pitch count.

If it wasn't for the glut of pitching injuries lately, Abbott would be closer to a drop. But his potential and the strikeouts are still appealing enough to warrant starting him on your teams. Just with tempered expectations.

Yesterday will have gone some way to reassuring fantasy managers. Not only the performance but also getting through six innings for the first time since July 25. Hopefully, the Covid outbreak that appears to be running through the Reds rotation keeps away from Abbott.

If his next scheduled starts (lined up to be the Cardinals and Tigers) go badly, then at this stage of the season, we need to consider replacing him. Whether or not someone will be available on waivers to improve your team is another thing.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll ensure to cover three requests each week.

Sandy Alcantara - SP, Miami Marlins - 97% rostered

Back in the week 12 edition of The Cut List (on June 11), Alcantara was put on the Hot Seat. At the time, he had a 4.75 ERA from his first 13 starts (83.1 IP). Since then, Alcantara has made 14 starts with a 3.76 ERA (93.1 IP).

As much as Alcantara had seemingly put his fantasy managers at ease, his last five starts will have caused concern again. Among them was a complete game against the Yankees, allowing just one run.

His other four starts saw Alcantara allow three or four earned runs and complete more than six innings once. The five starts have a combined 4.32 ERA. If we removed his domination of the dreadful Yankees lineup, the other four starts have a 5.55 ERA.

There isn't a whole lot of analysis really needed with Alcantara, especially at this stage of the season. No one expected a repeat of last season. But no one expected this much regression. A comparison of his Statcast Profile from last year to this gives us a clearer picture as to why he's struggled.

Alcantara's changeup just hasn't been nearly as good as last year. He's used it a similar amount (27.6% in 2022 and 27.4% in 2023), but the numbers against it are noticeably worse this year.

In 2022, it had a .146 AVG, .195 SLG and .170 wOBA against it. This year, the Alcantara changeup has a .293 AVG, .415 SLG and .320 wOBA against it. The expected numbers are a bit better than the actual numbers this year (.261 xBA, .379 xSLG and .301 xwOBA).

You're not going to drop Alcantara at this stage and his upcoming schedule isn't too bad. He's due to face the Nationals today and that's followed by outings against the Phillies and Brewers. That would mean he misses the series against the Braves.

In reality, if you aren't willing to start him against those teams, there isn't much point in rostering him. Other than stopping someone else running him out there in case he goes 7.0 IP allowing just two runs.

Yu Darvish - SP, San Diego Padres - 91% rostered

Like Alcantara, Darvish has had a down season. Although many expected some regression this year, he's been considerably worse than expected. After 24 starts, he has an 8-10 W-L record, 4.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 141 Ks (136.1 IP).

His 3.93 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA suggest Darvish has been a bit unlucky. But Darvish's 24.6% K% is a career-low and his 7.5% BB% is the highest since 2019 (7.7% BB%). The main reason for Darvish's inclusion (other than being requested) is injury-related.

Darvish was placed on the IL earlier this week. His last start came on August 25, meaning he is first eligible to return next weekend. From what manager Bob Melvin said on Friday, it's highly doubtful he will.

Bob Melvin provided the latest update on Yu Darvish's elbow, including that he had a cortisone shot, as well as updates on Joe Musgrove, Robert Suarez, Tim Hill, Ji Man Choi and Steven Wilson: pic.twitter.com/ITwwUSmIaf

— 97.3 The Fan (@973TheFanSD) August 31, 2023

Inflammation in the elbow is bad. A bone spur in the elbow is bad. Combine the two and it's very bad. We'll find out more in the coming days but given the Padres' record, there's a real chance we've already seen Darvish's last pitch of the 2023 season.

If you have a spare IL spot, I'd look to hold on to Darvish even if it's for another few days until we get more news. I'm just not convinced we see him again this year and I certainly wouldn't look to burn an active roster spot on that possibility.

Hunter Greene - SP, Cincinnati Reds - 73% rostered

Greene was on his way to having something of a breakout season. After flashing his stuff last year, Greene had a 3.93 ERA and 100 Ks in his first 14 starts (73.1 IP) of 2023. Unfortunately, a hip injury cost Greene over two months of the season.

His first two starts off the IL were predictably bad. An eight-earned run outing (3.0 IP) was followed by a five-earned run start (3.2 IP). On Wednesday, Greene looked much better. He allowed just one unearned run on three hits and a walk (5.1 IP) against the Giants.

He was put on the Covid IL on Friday so it's not clear whether or not he'll be able to make his next start. He should still be able to return to the mound in Week 24. It might work out in Greene's favor as if he misses the Mariners series, he'll likely face the Cardinals later in the week instead.

Since August 01, the Mariners rank fifth in runs scored (168) while the Cardinals rank 29th (106). The Mariners do have a 25.3% K% against RHP in that time while the Cardinals have a 21.9% K%. Greene has a 29.8% K% however, so doesn't need much help in racking up the strikeouts.

Even with some struggles since returning from the IL, Greene has nine strikeouts from swings and misses. As we can see from the clips, his 100 MPH fastball and slider still operate effectively together.

As long as Greene is able to make a start next week, he'd follow that up with a start against the Tigers or Mets. If he is able to take the mound on Tuesday as originally scheduled, he'd face them both. Both of them would be on the road too. That definitely has plenty of fantasy appeal.

I mentioned it last week but I'm willing to give Greene a pass for his two starts off the IL. Especially given it was a two-month layoff. He looked much better last time out and while a blow-up performance is still very possible with Greene, I'd be holding and starting him in the coming weeks.

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