The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 11

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 11 of the 2023 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

As we move into June, we're nearing the midway point of the season and it's time to start seriously wondering if a struggling star is actually going to turn their season around or the slow start is just part of a down year. But with two full months in the book, we also need to look at the season so far as a whole and not just base our decisions on whether or not someone had a rough May.

Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the year continues to progress, there will be different reasons and stronger cases to drop underperforming players. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

James Outman - OF, Los Angeles Dodgers - 66% rostered

This one hurts me to write about as I was uber-excited when Outman made the Opening Day roster and that excitement grew when he got off to such a good start. On May 1, Outman had a .292/.376/.615 slash line and a 166 wRC+, which was tied-11th among all qualified hitters.

Unfortunately, May was much more of a struggle and things have begun to unravel for the Dodgers' rookie outfielder. As of now, Outman has a .232/.319/.459 slash line, nine homers, 30 RBI, 29 runs, and six stolen bases (57 games). His struggles at the plate have led to a reduction in playing time and he's started just eight of the last 13 games since May 20.

Outman isn't in a strict platoon as of those missed games, two came against a right-handed pitcher (RHP) and one start came against a LHP. And given Outman has a 131 wRC+ against lefties and 109 wRC+ against righties, a platoon wouldn't make a whole lot of sense.

If we look at just two aspects of Outman's game so far, his hard-hit% and K%, the above graph shows how he managed to get the strikeouts under control. They're now becoming an issue while the quality of contact has been gradually getting worse and below league average.

Outman's 40.6% Whiff% is the highest among qualified hitters, which should give you an idea as to how badly overmatched he's been lately. Aaron Judge's Whiff% (36.5%) is the fifth-highest, so it's not the ultimate determinant of his performance but it's one of many that gives me pause for thought on Outman this year.

The 33.0% K% Outman had in April was masked given he was hitting the ball well and performing like a Rookie of the Year candidate. Now, the numbers are falling off a mini-cliff. The 37.0% K% in May is highlighted and it's almost all been down to his struggles hitting the fastball.

It appears as though major league pitchers have cottoned on to the fact Outman has been struggling to hit four-seamers, with just a .101 xBA and .186 xSLG on those pitches in May. He's seen a 14.1% increase in four-seam fastballs over the past month.

This is all part of being a rookie and growing pains are experienced by the large majority of them. But Outman ranks as the 144th outfielder on Yahoo! over the last 30 days and that won't cut it. I wouldn't be so down on Outman if he was still playing regularly but he isn't and the short-term outlook for his fantasy value isn't particularly good.

Verdict: As much as it pains me to say, Outman can be dropped. But I will say only in shallower leagues and those that play with fewer than five outfielders (especially those new standard ESPN leagues I dislike). I still like his power/speed potential long-term and certainly wouldn't look to move him in dynasty or deeper leagues. At a position that generally has more depth than any other on waivers, Outman is likely replaceable.

Jarren Duran - OF Boston Red Sox - 31% rostered

Duran failed to make the Red Sox Opening Day roster, which was in part down to his struggles at the major league level in his first two goes. In 91 games across 2021 and 2022, Duran hit .219/.269/.354 with five homers, 27 RBI, 40 runs, and nine stolen bases.

An injury to the red-hot Adam Duvall in mid-April saw Duran called up and he's certainly fared better this time around. In 41 games, Duran is hitting .279/.333/.442 with three homers, 22 RBI, 17 runs, and seven steals. Not too shabby, but there are a couple of looming concerns.

Firstly is the aforementioned Duvall. He began his rehab assignment earlier this week and is expected to return to the Red Sox next weekend when first eligible. Duran has been a very good defensive player but it's hard to see him taking the place of Alex Verdugo or Masataka Yoshida in the lineup every day.

Obviously, the Red Sox could revert back to using Yoshida as a more regular DH, but then that means Justin Turner moving to first base more frequently in place of Triston Casas (who performed well in May). Whatever route the Red Sox take, it's not immediately apparent and could see lots of rotation.

Now comes my more immediate concern. Duran has been getting some really good fortune and if that runs out, it's difficult to make a case for him as an everyday player. It may even have begun to run out as Duran has gone 3-for-21 since I added his name to this week's list on Wednesday.

Below shows Duran's actual and expected numbers along with Verdugo's. Earlier this week, Duran's numbers were even wider apart so his struggles over the last few games appear to be the natural regression. The reason I include Verdugo here is he has similar actual numbers to Duran:

But as we can see, Verdugo's numbers are more in line with his expected stats than Duran's and actually show Verdugo's numbers could easily be better than they are. Duran even has a .402 BABIP and given he had a .307 BABIP with his .219 average before this season, things are not looking sustainable.

And just for comparison's sake, Verdugo had a career .286 batting average prior to this season and a .319 BABIP. This year, Verdugo has a .294 average and .327 BABIP, so this year's numbers are very much in line with his career marks.

Verdict: Even if Duran holds down a semi-regular starting role, his numbers aren't spectacular, and look set to keep regressing to the point he will no longer be worthwhile rostering in the majority of leagues. If you can trade him away before it's too late, then do so, but I expect Duran to be one of the most popular drops in all leagues over the next week or two.

Ji Hwan Bae - 2B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates - 28% rostered

Another outfield-eligible player featuring in this week's Cut List. And another one that hurts me to include. That's because I had Bae on my radar this preseason when I looked at some outfield prospects that could help this year.

The reality is, for someone who was almost completely undrafted, Bae has lived up to his name for fantasy managers. And while his numbers aren't too bad at all, they don't tell the full story. After 53 games, Bae is hitting .268/.321/.359 with two homers, 12 RBI, 27 runs, and 15 stolen bases.

Only six players have more steals than Bae this year but a bit like wins for the Pirates, they've been in short supply as of late. If we look at Bae's numbers per month, we can see why he's finding himself on fewer fantasy rosters in recent times:

What this table tells us is that Bae had a much better "real-life" month of May but in fantasy terms, everything but the batting average was in decline. Given the Pirates went 20-9 in March/April and 8-18 in May, it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that has been the case with Bae.

There's a multitude of visuals or numbers you can use to justify dropping Bae. His 'Hits Spray Chart' shows us Bae has more infield hits than hits that have left the diamond, his Statcast profile is so blue you'd think it was cosplaying as a smurf, and his expected numbers all outweigh his actual numbers.

Two of those reasons actually lead me to believe Bae can still put up a solid batting average as he is very fast, to the point his sprint speed is in the 97th percentile. That means he can beat out those infield hits more regularly so his BABIP and xBA will be greater than his actual batting average.

The issue is, that's all we're getting from Bae at the minute. He'll get back to stealing more bases and as I've said many times before, stealing is much more than just speed. As his game develops, the caught stealings will decline. But he has no power and still hits down the order on a team with a below-average offense.

Verdict: Bae should still be able to help fantasy managers in their search for speed and batting average. In deeper leagues, that holds even more value. But he'll be a drag in the power department and it's difficult to see the Pirates' offense getting back to their early-season form to help Bae tally RBI and runs. Rostering Bae really comes down to how in need of speed you are.

Hold For Now

Steven Kwan - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 84% rostered

Last year, Kwan emerged as a master of plate discipline. He was almost impossible to strike out for large parts of 2022 and became a fantasy darling. This year, nothing has really changed, yet Kwan has found himself as someone fantasy managers are frustrated with and have begun to drop.

Truth be told, the 2023 version of Steven Kwan is as good, if not slightly better, than the 2022 version. The difference right now is Kwan hasn't had the benefit of some fortune like he had last year. What do I mean by that? Simply put, Kwan's expected numbers this year are better than last year.

I don't want to overload you with tables but I put together a quick one below to show you how Kwan's expected numbers are better this year:

And Kwan is making better contact this year, with an increased hard-hit% of 1.7% and an increase in his Average Exit Velocity of 0.9 mph. The problem is, they are both still really poor compared to the rest of the league.

Kwan's Statcast profile is one that does tell the full story of their numbers and performance. In fact, Kwan's is one that would be one of the easier to guess who it was if you didn't know the name associated with it.

The reality is, Kwan's skill set makes him the perfect leadoff hitter for the Guardians and is something he has done exclusively this year. That is not something that will likely change, so Kwan will continue to be in that role. And it's the role that will continue to provide fantasy value.

After 58 games, Kwan is hitting .264/.342/.359 with two homers, 18 RBI, 36 runs, and 10 stolen bases. Kwan leads all of the Guardians' qualified hitters in OBP and only Jose Ramirez has a better strikeout rate, so he's in no danger of losing a prime lineup spot.

And although Kwan's batting average isn't ~.300 as fantasy managers expected (nor what Statcast expects), he's still providing value elsewhere. Of all outfield-eligible players, only nine have scored more runs than Kwan. Of those nine, only two have stolen more bases.

Kwan could've had even more runs if the Guardians' offense performed like they did last year. After ranking tied-15th in runs scored in 2022 (698), the Guardians have scored 210 runs so far, which ranks 28th. They have picked up recently though, so a top-20 run-scoring offense this year is still possible.

And if the Guardians lineup does pick up, Kwan could be a top-five run-scoring outfielder this year while topping 25 steals and hitting over .280. He offers little to no power and RBI won't be easy to come by but there's no reason he can't end the year with a similar fantasy line to last year's.

Last year, Kwan ranked 16th overall among outfielders on Yahoo!, so even a slight drop in his average will still see him rank as a viable outfield option this year. If for any reason Kwan's average begins slipping, he gets on base less, strikes out more, and finds himself moved down the order, then a decision might need to be made.

But that's not likely and Kwan will continue to slap the ball around, get on base, run the bases well, and score runs. In points leagues, Kwan's value will depend on how your points are weighted but the number of plate appearances means Kwan will accumulate more and will likely still be a viable outfield option.

Kris Bryant - OF, Colorado Rockies - 81% rostered

Regular readers will know I generally don't include injured players in The Cut List, largely down to the fact that in most leagues, you can just put them on the IL and forget about them until they return. Only if you have a stacked IL does it become a tricky decision.

But I'd already committed to Bryant being included. Given his recent slump and general all-around averageness, I felt like it was still prudent to at least take a little peak at Bryant and try to ascertain what is going on.

First, let's mention the injury. Bryant hit the IL earlier this week due to a heel bruise. There are some concerns that it's in the same foot in which Bryant suffered plantar fasciitis last year, limiting him to just 42 games. But there's not been anything public to suggest it's in any way linked and it'll delay Bryant's return.

Bryant fouled a ball off his foot prior to the injury and manager Bud Black suggested that playing on turf recently has caused the issue. It sounds like Bryant could just miss the minimum time and be back next week.

Bryant hit .114/.244/.143 in his last 10 games but the fact this injury doesn't sound like it's been a nagging thing for some time doesn't give us a reason as to why he's slumped lately. And on the season, he's hitting .263/.346/.374 with five homers, 17 RBI, 21 runs, and no stolen bases (50 games).

Bryant did start the year well. At the end of April, he was hitting .297/.360/.426 with a 103 wRC+. Nothing spectacular but solid nonetheless. However, his May was rough and the below graph highlights how his numbers declined as the month went on.

You would hope that Coors Field would mask some issues and that Bryant would still hit for power. But all five of his homers last year came on the road while three of his five this year have been at home. This year, Bryant has a 92 wRC+ on the road and 80 wRC+ at home. It seems Bryant and Coors don't mix too well.

I will just mention that due to last year's injury, we don't have much of a sample for Bryant at Coors since joining the Rockies. He's only played 50 games at Coors Field over the last two seasons, so there's every chance he returns from injury and starts reaping its benefits.

There's also every chance he returns from injury and continues being a borderline fifth outfielder in fantasy, only providing value in deeper leagues. But I'm not prepared to cut bait just yet, I want to give Bryant the chance to get healthy and then see how he performs. If nothing else, to rule out the fact he's been playing injured so far in 2023.

But the leash is short. If he doesn't show signs of life in the first couple of weeks back from the IL, I'd have no problems in dropping Bryant in all but the deeper leagues. Making plans now in case you are going to take that course of action isn't the worst idea, either.

Jordan Montgomery - SP, St. Louis Cardinals - 68% rostered

Last year's trade that sent Montgomery to the Cardinals and Harrison Bader to the Yankees was seen as one of the stranger trades in recent times, especially after Montgomery put up a 3.11 ERA in his 11 starts with St. Louis. But this year, Montgomery hasn't been able to replicate what he did in 2022.

So far this year after 12 starts, Montgomery has a 2-7 W-L record, 4.23 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, and 60 Ks (66.0 IP). Yesterday's outing pretty much summed up his year so far, suffering a rain delay and taking the loss after three unearned runs scored and the Cardinals' offense couldn't muster much in reply.

Although it appears that Montgomery is having a significant down year, if we look at some of his underlying numbers, they're not too dissimilar. The below table compares some of Montomgery's numbers last year, this year, and his career numbers:

This is just a small snapshot. There's a myriad of other numbers we could look at but these particular ones tell me that last year was a career year for Montgomery and likely his ceiling, while this year is a down year in which luck hasn't been on his side.

Although Montgomery's ERA is almost a full run higher this year, his metrics suggest it should be about half of that. There's nothing glaring in his pitch arsenal either with similar Stuff+ ratings and similar velocity.

With five quality starts this year, he can be an asset. In the same breath, on two occasions, he's allowed six or more earned runs. Montgomery does have a 3.20 ERA on the road and a 5.74 ERA at home this year but he had a 2.84 ERA at home last year after joining the Cardinals (nine starts), so it's tough to put much credence into that.

Maybe Montgomery has been a victim of the malaise that's been running through the Cardinals organization in 2023. Whatever it is, in shallow leagues, Montgomery is more of a streaming option rather than a player you want to keep on your roster all of the time.

But if you have held him this long, you should start seeing better results from Montgomery, so keeping him for at least a bit longer isn't a bad idea at all. The Cardinals just don't look like they'll get him many wins unless there's a drastic change from them.

In deeper leagues, Montgomery is the type of boring rotation piece you can leave in your lineups every week. By season's end, he won't have helped carry you to a fantasy title, but he wouldn't have cost you one, either.

On the Hot Seat

Carlos Correa - SS, Minnesota Twins - 81% rostered

I've held off including Correa in The Cut List for as long as possible. But I cannot hold out anymore. Correa has been dealing with a heel issue this week but that doesn't factor into his inclusion. Correa's .207/.299/.372 slash line, six homers, 24 RBI, 15 runs, and no stolen bases (50 games) do warrant his inclusion.

It's fair to say no one has ever had an offseason quite like Correa did. Two $300M contract offers (from the Mets and Giants) were rescinded due to concerns over his surgically repaired ankle. One doctor even suggested it was "the worst ankle he's seen". But the Twins were confident enough to give Correa $200M over six years to be their shortstop.

And the early signs suggest they may regret that decision. There's been no suggestion Correa's ankle is causing him problems nor has it been in any way linked to his struggles this year. So what could be causing this ongoing slump?

Although the ankle doesn't seem to be a factor, there is the intangible of what impact that offseason had on Correa. That can't be quantified of course but it is worth consideration. If news of the state of his ankle did come as a surprise to Correa, it will surely be at the back of his mind.

So let's look at some of Correa's numbers this year and compare them to his previous two seasons:

A look at those would suggest the decline has been over the last two and a bit years. Interestingly, Correa is still hitting the ball hard but he's making less contact than ever and hitting the ball into the ground more than he has in recent seasons. That will obviously negate the solid contact he's making.

You can look at Correa's expected numbers and say he has been unlucky. But they're still around league average and significantly down on previous years. If we drill down to Correa's expected numbers by pitch, there is something a bit more noteworthy.

Against fastballs (which he's seen 55.6% of the time), Correa has a .342 SLG and .471 xSLG. Last year, he had a .505 xSLG against fastballs and a .497 xSLG in 2021, so is only a bit shy of where he's been in recent years. He's just been unlucky against fastballs so far.

But against breaking balls (which he's seen 35.2% of the time), Correa has a .435 SLG and .296 xSLG. Correa had a .446 xSLG against breaking pitches last year and a .462 xSLG against them in 2021. So Correa's bad luck against fastballs has converted into good luck against breaking balls. That's something you expect to normalize over a bigger sample.

All that's really telling us is that Correa's numbers have actually been fortunate against breaking pitches and unlucky against fastballs. What is worth noting is that Correa has seen an increase in breaking balls and a decrease in fastballs. The below graph shows the percentage of pitch types Correa has seen each season.

Correa has seen 5.9% more breaking balls this year than he did in 2021 and 2.6% fewer fastballs. That might not seem much but if we look at his numbers per pitch since 2021, it's enough to make a difference.

It makes sense that pitchers know Correa struggles more against breaking pitches than he does fastballs, so he will likely continue to see fewer fastballs moving forward. There's more to Correa's struggles than seeing more breaking balls but this is just an additional symptom of what has plagued him this year.

I've always been a believer in giving players with long track records of success considerably more time to get out of any prolonged slump. And I'm not going to change that mindset for Correa this year, even after more than two months of sub-standard production.

That being said, I fully understand fantasy managers who have had enough of Correa. The fact he doesn't offer any speed nor does he have any category he offers elite numbers in makes him expendable if you can't wait around for him to get going.

Personally, I wouldn't drop Correa but I certainly wouldn't question anyone who has or is about to as there's little to go off of in expecting him to show signs of improvement this year. It's more a case of hope rather than expectation at this point.

Reddit Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Jeremy Pena - SS, Houston Astros - 90% rostered

I may be in the minority, but I feel like Peña is a victim of expectations being too high. After 57 games, Peña is hitting .257/.315/.440 with eight homers, 26 RBI, 34 runs, and six stolen bases. Last year, Peña played 136 games and ended the year as the 16th-best shortstop in fantasy, according to Yahoo!

So I've compared last year's numbers for Peña with this year's at a 136-game pace:

Given Peña is set to play more than 136 games this year, I fully expect him to tally more stats than he did last year and it probably won't come as a surprise that he ranks as the eighth shortstop on Yahoo! this year.

I guess the concern about Peña is the fact he had such a hot April, hitting six homers while tallying 16 RBI and 21 runs. But in May, Peña hit just two homers with 10 RBI and eight runs. He's already scored five runs in three games this month. The real standout is after going 6-for-7 in stolen base attempts in April, Peña went 0-for-4 in May.

Peña still put up a 99 wRC+ in May after having a 109 wRC+ beforehand, but it's hard not to look beyond the lack of successful steals last month and wonder if there's an issue. In truth, I don't believe there is. However, I do feel we're seeing pitchers and catchers adapting to the new rules and some baserunners becoming complacent knowing it's easier to steal bases now.

That may only be true for certain players as the leaguewide numbers were similar for both months. In March/April, we saw a total of 602 stolen bases in 759 attempts (79.3% success rate) in the majors. In May, there was a total of 590 successful steals out of 738 attempts (79.9%).

But Peña's sprint speed hasn't diminished (and ranks in the 97th percentile), so I'm not too concerned about him running less or being red-lighted. There doesn't appear to be anything else for fantasy managers to be concerned about, so Peña is a definite hold for me in all formats.

Freddy Peralta - SP, Milwaukee Brewers - 89% rostered

It's been tough going for Peralta so far this year. After 11 starts, he has a 5-5 W-L record, 4.62 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and 61 Ks (60.1 IP). In truth, it's not too dissimilar to Montgomery's line other than the wins, which is something neither has much control over.

Still, I'm holding Peralta in all leagues. Why is that you may ask? Well, it's not because Peralta has been unlucky and his ERA should start to drop, as evidenced by his 4.40 xFIP and 4.42 SIERA. Nor do I think he finally gets his walk rate below the league average, with his 9.4% BB% (38th percentile) this year better than his career 9.9% BB%.

I do believe the number of home runs Peralta is allowing will drop, given his 14.7% HR/FB is well above the 8.7% HR/FB he's had in the two previous seasons combined. Among the 71 qualified pitchers, that ranks as the 17th-highest.

But my belief is entrenched in Peralta's stuff. If we look at his Stuff+, Peralta's fastball is ranked the seventh-best (120 Stuff+) among qualified starters, while his slider is tied for ninth-best (123 Stuff+). Given those two pitches alone makes up 73.5% of the pitches he's thrown this year, you might expect Peralta to have had better results so far.

It may just be a simple case of Peralta not quite locating his fastball effectively. Below compares the heatmaps of his fastball last year to this year.

You'll notice that last year, it was generally a bit more elevated and a bit more on the edge. Whereas this year, it has been spotted much more in the heart of the zone. You may be inclined to put it down to his battery mate with William Contreras not being a good defensive catcher.

But I'm here to tell you, you'd be wrong to think that. After ranking in the 20th percentile for framing last year, Contreras ranks in the 77th percentile this year. Contreras replaced Omar Narvaez, who last year ranked in the 89th percentile for framing, so it's not been much of a downgrade at all.

I know there's more to catching than framing and there are plenty of intangibles when it comes to pitchers and catchers. Maybe the chemistry isn't quite there or maybe Contreras is calling things differently, which isn't quite playing into Peralta's strengths. We don't know.

But what we do know is Peralta has two of the best pitches in the game and put up a 3.08 ERA across 222.1 innings over the previous two seasons. That's not something I'm willing to ignore. If he can stay healthy, I still believe Peralta can end the season at least as a top-50 starting pitcher.

Hunter Renfroe - OF, Los Angeles Angels - 84% rostered

The last of what feels like an outfielder special edition, Renfroe hasn't had too bad of a season so far. After 57 games, he's hitting .256/.306/.457 with 11 homers, 30 RBI, 32 runs, and no stolen bases. To put that into context, only eight other outfielders have tallied at least that many homers, RBI, and runs.

At the position, Renfroe ranks 31st on Yahoo! and has been hitting fifth or sixth in the lineup almost every game, which is generally right behind Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani. So why would you consider dropping him?

Well, he's been struggling as of late. But as I say in the introduction: "A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone." In the two weeks prior to the request, Renfroe hit .231/.273/.308 and yesterday was his first home run since May 10.

Renfroe's 20-game homerless streak prior to yesterday was longer than any such stretch he had last year. But in 2022, despite hitting 29 home runs in 125 games, he had three 10-game streaks without a homer and a 15-game streak without one. So this isn't entirely new ground for Renfroe.

During last year's 15-game homerless streak, Renfroe hit .175/.254/.246. He then hit .350/.366/.700 over the next 10 games, which included four home runs. If you've benched Renfroe this past week, next week might be the time to get him back into your lineups.

The main reasons I'm not too concerned about Renfroe are that his expected numbers are similar to his actual ones and he's continuing to hit the ball hard, even throughout this slumber.

The above chart shows Renfroe's rolling Hard% (according to Fangraphs) throughout this season. And speaking of his contact, Renfroe's 45.0% hard-hit% (according to Statcast) is in the 71st percentile and on track to set a career-high. But he's also set to have a career-low Barrel% (7.6%).

There isn't anything to suggest Renfroe's regressing into a below-league-average player and he's hitting the ball hard. But he's not quite barreling the ball. Assuming that changes and his Barrel% gets somewhere near his career mark (11.8%), 25 homers with 80+ RBI and runs should be achieved by the end of the season.

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