The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 25

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 25 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- September 9 through September 15. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Ronel Blanco - SP/RP, Houston Astros - 86% rostered

After having a career year out of nowhere, Blanco has slowed down in recent weeks. In a season that includes a no-hitter in his first start on April 1, Blanco will look back on the year fondly. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like 2024 will end as spectacularly as it started.

Since Justin Verlander returned from the IL, the Astros have operated with a six-man rotation. There had been talk of the Astros moving back to a five-man rotation, with Blanco reverting to a bullpen role next week. Blanco pitched in relief yesterday and is set to move back to the rotation next week.

Ronel Blanco is available out of the Astros’ bullpen this weekend, Joe Espada said. The Astros plan to go back to a six-man rotation after their off day on Monday.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) September 6, 2024

The issue now is that Blanco isn't likely to pitch again until next weekend and then only make one more start. Blanco has slowed down in recent weeks but not to the point he can be considered as pitching poorly. He had a 4.40 ERA in July and a 4.07 ERA in August but still has a 2.99 ERA on the season.

We can point to Blanco's 4.16 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA as reasons to be concerned about his regression. And that's all we've seen recently. Blanco still tossed five shutout innings against the Royals last Sunday, so he has made a case to stay in the rotation.

Blanco struck out five batters in two scoreless innings of relief on Saturday. The strikeouts would have been a nice boost for fantasy managers who started him this week. The problem is that it's clear that the Astros see Blanco as the sixth starter in the rotation, and he'll barely feature again in 2024.

Verdict: Blanco is set to face the Angels twice, which should be good for his numbers. But there are question marks over how the Astros are tweaking their rotation. There are no guarantees we see Blanco start again, and there will likely be good options to stream over the next three weeks.

Merrill Kelly - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 67% rostered

Kelly is someone I was high on coming into this season. An under-the-radar veteran going later in drafts than he should based on his performance over the previous two seasons. An April shoulder injury and four-month layoff derailed what was a good start to 2024.

Before going on the IL, Kelly had a 2.19 ERA from four starts. In his five starts since returning from the shoulder injury, Kelly has a 5.72 ERA. While nine starts aren't much of a sample, especially split on either side of a shoulder injury, there are red flags since his return.

It shouldn't come as a surprise that a 35-year-old pitcher has struggled in a handful of starts following a four-month layoff. It also shouldn't get you excited about rostering Kelly. We also need to factor in his remaining schedule.

Kelly did have his best start since returning from injury on Thursday. He limited the Giants to two runs on six hits (7.0 IP). Kelly also matched his season-high of eight strikeouts. But it's important to note that the Giants 88 wRC+ since August 1 ranks 26th.

As things currently are, Kelly is due to face the Rangers next. That's not too bad, given that they have ranked 22nd in runs scored (139) since August 1. Following that is a start at Coors Field. Kelly then faces the Brewers and Padres. Both teams rank in the top five for runs scored since August 1. Not ideal.

Verdict: I'd look to start Kelly against the Rangers in anything but shallow leagues. That would be the last time I'd be starting him this year. The schedule is tough, and his performances haven't provided fantasy managers with any confidence. Look ahead and seek a replacement while you can.

Hold For Now

Marcus Semien - 2B, Texas Rangers - 97% rostered

Semien is a prime example of a player not performing close to their ADP. Yet still well enough to warrant rostering. After being drafted as a third-rounder (ADP ~28), Semien currently ranks 122nd overall on Yahoo!. He's currently ranked 11th among second-base-eligible players.

Fantasy managers' frustration with Semien has peaked recently. After a productive July in which he hit .287/.374/.479, Semien has been on a slide. He hit .207/.285/.333 with a 74 wRC+ in August. And September hasn't started any better, going 5-for-26. The one thing Semien does is score runs.

He already has six runs this month and has the chance to make it five consecutive full seasons of scoring at least 100 runs. After 140 games, Semien has 18 homers, 65 RBI, 87 runs, and five steals with a .236/.307/.382 slash line. At this stage of the season, we have to focus on smaller samples.

It's Semien's .163/.255/.184 slash line over the last 14 days and .202/.266/.272 slash line over the last 30 days; that's the issue. As frustrating as Semien has been for most of this season, it's still difficult to drop him. Especially given that there aren't many good second-base options on waivers.

That's not to say I wouldn't look at moving on from him. The highest-ranked second basemen who are currently rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo! leagues are Jose Caballero (38%) and Brendan Rodgers (21%). They rank 19th and 21st at the position, respectively. I'd rather have Semien than those two.

The loss of Corey Seager will hurt Semien's value. However, Wyatt Langford has hit second in the lineup behind Semien for most of this week, which may minimize the knock on Semien's fantasy value. There's still enough juice to justify holding Semien without a standout replacement being available.

Jake Burger - 1B/3B, Miami Marlins - 81% rostered

As disappointing as the Marlins offense continues to be, Burger has still been a solid source of power. After 117 games, Burger has 25 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs, and one steal with a .246/.303/.459 slash line. Burger's numbers are slightly down from last year, and he's not been helped by Miami's lineup.

Only the White Sox (437) have scored fewer runs than the Marlins (539) this year. That is why Burger ranks 94th among all hitters on Yahoo! and not higher. If we compare his Statcast Profiles over the last two years, we can see how similar hit numbers have been.

There is some regression for sure, but Burger still has impressive quality contact numbers. Burger's value over the remainder of the season has come into question because of his supporting cast. But also due to the most recent couple of weeks. This is a case of looking at a sample that is too small.

Over the last 14 days, Burger has had zero home runs and ranks 585th overall on Yahoo! If we extend that out to the last 30 days, Burger has six homers and ranks 80th overall. While we do need to look at smaller samples in September, we shouldn't completely ignore the bigger picture.

Burger can go on a tear at any time. After a slow start to the season, Burger has homered 21 times in his last 79 games. That's after hitting four home runs in his first 38 games. He's worth hanging on to with the hope he can finish the season with a bang and make it back-to-back 30-home run seasons.

On the Hot Seat

Royce Lewis - 2B/3B, Minnesota Twins - 93% rostered

Lewis has played 63 MLB games this season. In total, he's played 71 games (including the eight rehab games at Triple-A). It may not seem much (because it isn't), but given the 72 total games played last year were the most Lewis managed since 2019, it is a personal positive.

And Lewis has been productive when healthy. He's hit .251/.312/.525 with 16 homers, 44 RBI, 34 runs, and no steals. That's a 162-game pace of 41 home runs, 113 RBI, and 87 runs. That will be enough to ensure Lewis is drafted in the early rounds again next year.

It's been a rough stretch recently that Lewis has been occupying the Hot Seat. His home run last Sunday was Lewis' first since August 12. He's hitting .220/.245/.341 over the last four weeks, with a 61 wRC+. There's been some discontent from Lewis within the Twins clubhouse, too.

Royce Lewis was more optimistic today than he has been in recent weeks, acknowledging he’s had a tough time but also believing he’ll get through it. His manager echoed the same sentiment. #MNTwinshttps://t.co/koXa72Zo1B

— DanHayesMLB (@DanHayesMLB) September 7, 2024

Lewis was unhappy about playing second base. It's not something he's done often since moving there during the Twins game last Sunday. He's only started one game at second base this week. It's worth noting that Lewis homered in that game after moving to second base.

Given Rocco Baldelli's eagerness to play matchups and pinch hit for players early in games, positional flexibility will be important. Hopefully, Lewis has gotten over his issues about having to play second base sometimes and can focus on getting out of his slump.

It's the slump that has fantasy managers concerned. It's not just been a bout of misfortune. Lewis has a .262 BABIP over the last four weeks, higher than the .256 BABIP he had before August 12. He's just not been hitting the ball nearly as hard in recent weeks.

This is the kind of red flag that makes me wonder if a player is dealing with an injury. Given Lewis' injury history, that will always be a concern. Without a word from the Twins or Lewis about any such issue, it's just guesswork and could be completely off base.

What we are left with is an elite power hitter who has demonstrated a propensity for hitting home runs but is struggling. We know what Lewis can do, having homered 14 times in his first 39 games of the season. And as someone who has 33 home runs in 133 MLB games.

As you read on, you will discover how quickly a top-power hitter can turn things around. Few in the game possess the 40-homer season power that Lewis does. Health will continue to prevent that feat from being achieved. But as long as Lewis is healthy, there will always be a strong case for holding him.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Kyle Schwarber - OF, Philadelphia Phillies - 98% rostered

Given what Schwarber has done this week, it would have made sense for me not to include him; his torrid few days should act as a reminder of his abilities. It should also be used to remind ourselves that talented hitters can do this so as not to panic dropping them.

Schwarber has homered five times this week, with 11 RBI and nine runs. He's also doubled three times in an 11-for-23 effort. It doesn't mean people were wrong to consider dropping Schwarber before this week. No one should be beyond scrutiny at this stage of the season.

Tuesday was Schwarber's second three-homer game of the season. He achieved that feat on August 7. Between those two games, Schwarber hit .141/.245/.217 with one homer, nine RBI, and nine runs (23 games). Fantasy manager frustrations were building up last week.

As I say in the introduction, "A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone." While I agree that we should look at smaller samples this time of year, we mustn't lose sight of what players like Schwarber are capable of. He can act as a reminder of that.

George Kirby - SP, Seattle Mariners - 98% rostered

After a difficult August in which Kirby posted a 6.84 ERA in five starts (25.0 IP), he looked back near his best on Wednesday. Against the A's, Kirby fired his 16th quality start of the year. He struck out nine and allowed two earned runs (6.0 IP). In regards to what to do with Kirby, see Schwarber.

In the year, Kirby had an 11-10 W-L record, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 162 Ks (167.0 IP). His 3.56 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA tell us that Kirby's ERA is what we should expect it to be, which makes his August numbers all the more strange.

Kirby had a 4.69 xFIP and 4.38 SIERA last month, so he was unlucky. Although Kirby did still underperform last month based on what he is capable of. And he wasn't helped by the meltdown against the Tigers, with five of the 11 runs charged to Kirby being unearned.

Kirby is set to face the Padres next week, which will be tough. But he's then lined up for two starts against the Rangers before ending the season against the A's. Those three starts alone are enough to warrant holding Kirby, even if you do opt to sit him next week.

CJ Abrams - SS, Washington Nationals - 97% rostered

Abrams doesn't quite fall into the Schwarber level of hitting ability. That's despite closing in on a 20/20 season. After 130 games, Abrams has 18 homers, 63 RBI, 73 runs, and 28 steals with a .238/.307/.417 slash line. After 47 stolen bases last year, 28 steals this year is disappointing.

And Abrams has not hit well for a long time. Since July 1, he has a .174/.255/.282 slash line (55 games). He also has 14 steals, 21 RBI, and 23 runs in that time. While the batting average is paltry, Abrams is only one of 13 players to have at least 14 stolen bases since July 1.

If we look solely at Abrams' slash line throughout the season, we can see it's been a prolonged period of disappointment. It is worth noting that a sub-.200 batting average from now until the end of the season won't have much more of an impact on your overall in roto leagues.

I mentioned this last week when discussing Anthony Volpe. It comes down to how much you need the stolen bases. While only 13 hitters have at least 14 stolen bases since July 1, 112 hitters have at least 21 RBI and 23 runs. Abrams doesn't bring much else to the table other than his speed.

The arrivals of James Wood and Dylan Crews may have given the Nationals a lift. But Abrams had been moved down the batting order until he hit leadoff in both games of their doubleheader yesterday. Even as he leadoff hitter, unless you need stolen bases, Abrams is someone you can move on from.

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