The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 24

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 24 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- September 2 through September 8. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Brandon Pfaadt - SP, Arizona Diamondbacks - 76% rostered

Pfaadt has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers this season. That was until recent weeks. A 6.29 ERA in his last six starts has seen Pfaadt become one of the most dropped pitchers this month. While there has been some bad luck during his recent outings, dropping him makes sense.

That decision isn't based solely on his recent numbers. During this stretch, Pfaadt increased his strikeout rate (23.0% K%) and lowered his walk rate (3.4% BB%). As mentioned, he's been unlucky, evidenced by his 3.35 xFIP, 3.54 SIERA, and .369 BABIP in his last six starts. So why can Pfaadt be dropped?

Pfaadt has a rough upcoming schedule. He's due to face the Dodgers today. Then Pfaadt is lined up to pitch against the Astros, the Brewers, and then the Rockies at Coors Field. The Dodgers and Brewers are top six teams in runs scored in August. The Astros rank 20th but don't strike out much.

There isn't much to get excited about with Pfaadt's upcoming games. The Diamondbacks have scored more runs than any other team in August so he has still been able to pick up wins recently. Things can change of course, but you're not wanting to start Pfaadt in more than maybe one of those matchups.

Unlike some pitchers at this stage, workload shouldn't be a concern. He's reached 154.2 IP this year. In 2021, Pfaadt totaled 131.2 IP. In 2022, he totaled 167.0 IP, and last year, he totaled 166.2 IP. This decision is based purely on who Pfaadt will likely face in the final month of the season.

Verdict: Would you want to rely on Pfaadt against those opponents in your playoffs? Is Pfaadt going to solidify your place in the roto standings? The likely answer to those questions is no. Unless you're chasing or in deep leagues, I'd be fine looking for a replacement.

Logan O'Hoppe - C, Los Angeles Angels - 69% rostered

A regular theme throughout the year with The Cut List is the catcher position. And specifically, what I generally say about catchers. Outside of a handful of catchers, I have no issue dropping them. O'Hoppe has been very good this year, but he's still not part of the handful I'd always hold.

On the season, O'Hoppe has 17 homers, 50 RBI, 52 runs, and two steals with a .241/.298/.402 slash line in 117 games. That's enough to rank 11th at the position currently on Yahoo. Over the last 30 days, O'Hoppe ranks 76th of 77th catcher-eligible players with at least one at-bat.

We can see how his slash line has regressed in recent weeks.

That's not to diminish what O'Hoppe has done this year. And if he were playing on a better team, I'd be much more open to holding him. The Angels rank 27th in runs scored this year (532) and 28th in August (95). Even if O'Hoppe was hitting well, the counting stats would be lacking.

Between his struggles and the weak supporting cast, it's tough to carry O'Hoppe on your rosters into the final month of the season. Given he experienced knee soreness earlier this month, it's fair to believe this season has taken a physical toll on O'Hoppe and he's battling through games right now.

Verdict: There are too many red flags surrounding O'Hoppe right now. Like Pfaadt, can you trust him in your playoffs or to propel you up the standings? You'd be better off streaming a hot bat at the position, and O'Hoppe is barely worth holding in deeper or two-catcher leagues.

Hold For Now

Sonny Gray - SP, St. Louis Cardinals - 95% rostered

Like others featured in The Cut List, Gray had a nice bounce-back outing this week. Before holding the Padres to one run (6.0 IP) on Thursday, Gray had a 5.86 ERA over his previous 10 starts. During the season, Gray had a 12-9 W-L record, 3.96 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 179 Ks (147.2 IP).

Gray is fifth in total strikeouts so that alone makes him worth rostering. Even with an ERA barely under 4.00, Gray has been very unlucky. He's got a 2.84 xFIP and 3.08 SIERA. Among the 63 qualified starters, Gray's xFIP is second lowest, and his SIERA is third lowest.

When you're keeping company with the AL and NL Cy Young favorites (Tarik Skubal and Chris Sale), you're doing something right. Even during Gray's rough 10-game stretch, he had a 2.78 xFIP and 3.15 SIERA. We can see how consistent his underlying numbers have been all season.

As we have to do with every pitcher at this stage of the season, we need to look at Gray's schedule. And it's NL Central dominated. Gray is lined up to pitch against the Brewers, the Reds, and then the Pirates. In terms of runs scored in August, they rank second, seventh, and 19th, respectively.

Gray then finishes his season at Coors Field. Fantasy managers will be apprehensive about that schedule, but Gray has been excellent. The run of bad luck is hopefully over. If it is, Gray could carry you to a fantasy championship in September.

Seth Lugo - SP, Kansas City Royals - 90% rostered

It's been a real mixed bag from Lugo in recent outings. That's presented fantasy managers with a conundrum as to what to do with the Royals pitcher. For now, at least, I'm holding. That's despite Lugo having a 5.05 ERA over his last nine starts and a 5.97 ERA over his previous five starts.

During the season, Lugo had a 14-8 W-L record, 3.12 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 155 Ks in 28 starts (179.0 IP). The big concern is the workload. No one has thrown more innings than Lugo this year. And he has already eclipsed his career-high in a season (146.1 IP) set last season.

I'm not suggesting you should drop Lugo (especially after Friday). But you should be cautious about starting him. As mentioned, it's been a mixed bag from Lugo of late. His best performances before Friday had come against the weakest opponents. We can see that from Lugo's recent game log.

As we can see, three of Lugo's best four performances came against the White Sox, the Tigers, and the Angels. Lugo's remaining starts are scheduled to be against the Guardians, the Yankees, the Tigers, the Giants, and the Braves (in that order).

Whilst that may look like a tough run to close out the season, only the Braves (10th) rank in the top ten for runs scored in August. The Guardians are the next ranked (13th), with the Yankees (16th), the Tigers (20th), and the Giants (25th) all being quite favorable.

There is a risk with starting Lugo, and in head-to-head leagues, I'd be more cautious. The downside is that his bad starts have been very bad. He's an 'all or nothing' pitcher right now. But, the 'all' could end up winning you a matchup and, ultimately, a fantasy championship.

On the Hot Seat

Julio Rodriguez - OF, Seattle Mariners - 97% rostered

To say Rodriguez has been disappointing this season would be an all-time understatement. A consensus top-3 pick in drafts has not come close to delivering first-round value. He missed three weeks with an ankle sprain, but you'd still expect Rodriguez to be ranked higher than the 98th hitter (as per Yahoo!).

After 117 games, Rodriguez has 13 homers, 46 RBI, 52 runs, and 18 steals with a .259/.318/.373 slash line. Following 2023's 30/30 season, without a big September, Rodriguez won't be able to replicate 2022's 20/20 season. But that is something he is capable of.

Historically, September has been Rodriguez's best month for power. It's not much of a sample given we only have two September's worth of numbers. But despite having the fewest plate appearances, he's still put up better power numbers than other months.

While I get the frustration that led to Rodriguez being dropped in some leagues, I wouldn't have condoned it. Rodriguez is one of the few players who can single-handedly win fantasy managers a matchup. And very few players have the potential to move you up multiple roto categories.

The Mariners' offense has been a letdown all season. They rank 26th in runs scored (542) this season and 23rd in August (111). It's unlikely to improve much to the point that Rodriguez can tally good RBI and run totals. But in terms of power and speed, few have his upside.

If you're still considering dropping Rodriguez, you need to ask yourself this question: how would you feel if Rodriguez went off in September? If you made the fantasy playoffs with Rodriguez, you likely don't even need him to go nuts to compete. But if he does, the payoff will be huge.

We might be seeing the start of a huge end to 2024 from Rodriguez. The outfielder has gone 6-for-10 with two home runs, six RBI, and four runs over the last three games. He's walked four times and struck out once. The patience fantasy managers have shown may finally pay off.

If this is a false dawn and Rodriguez does nothing over the next two or three series, then you might need to make a tough decision. Carrying a passenger for your final in head-to-head leagues seldom ends well. History has shown us that we should expect big things from Rodrigues to end the year.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Randy Arozarena - OF, Seattle Mariners - 93% rostered

Arozarena has been a thorn in the side of fantasy managers throughout 2024. The counting stats have been good, with a fourth consecutive 20/20 season likely. But his batting average has largely mitigated their positive impact.

After 130 games, Arozarena is hitting .218/.333/.393 with 18 homers, 47 RBI, 66 runs, and 20 steals. We've already mentioned how disappointing the Mariners offense has been. The Rays' offense hasn't been much better. At the time Arozarena was traded, they ranked 26th in runs scored (413).

Arozarena has performed better with the Mariners, hitting .241/.379/.389 in 30 games. Back in the week 11 edition of The Cut List, I said that I expected Arozarena to have a sub-.220 batting average by the end of the year. He's at least managed to reach close in on that modest mark.

On Yahoo!, Arozarena is ranked 136th among all hitters over the last 30 days. That's just enough to warrant holding. Arozarena's numbers aren't quite enough to call him a five-category hitter. He does still do enough across the board to justify rostering over the final month.

Suppose you play in leagues with fewer than five outfielders or in shallow leagues, and then Arozarena is someone you can safely drop. Although he is someone who shouldn't hurt you in any category, points leagues may be different. Depending on how your points are weighted, Arozarena may be a detriment.

Anthony Volpe - SS, New York Yankees - 89% rostered

Volpe's biggest fantasy asset is his speed. After a 20/20 season last year, his power has regressed while his speed has maintained. In 135 games, Volpe has 11 homers, 51 RBI, 81 runs, and 25 steals with a .254/.304/.388 slash line. The frustration has been Volpe's inability to continue his hot start.

At the end of May, Volpe had a .282/.352/.432 slash line and was the Yankees leadoff hitter. He lost that role in early July after hitting .220/.238/.309 in June. Given he had a .209 batting average last year, it shouldn't have come as a big shock when Volpe's batting average began to regress.

If we look at his Statcast Profile, there's very little to get excited about.

When asked about Volpe, I stated that I was fine dropping him. But it's dependant on what you need. Volpe has continued to run despite struggling to get on base as frequently as he did earlier in the year. Part of that was down to a reluctance to risk being thrown out when Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are at the plate.

His six stolen bases in August are the most Volpe has tallied in a month since April (seven). He's registered with double-digit RBI and runs this month, which is the fourth time he has done so. If you think 12 RBI and 11 runs in a month aren't much, you'd be correct. But when you add in the steals, it's a different story.

There are 124 hitters with at least 10 RBI and 10 runs scored in August. There are only 15 hitters with 10 RBI, 10 runs, and six stolen bases in August. Those steals turn Volpe from being borderline rosterable in standard leagues to being a big asset in almost any league.

Again, though, it comes down to need. If you don't need the stolen bases (especially in roto leagues), Volpe offers very little. There might not be much better on waivers, but it's certainly worth considering. If you need the steals, then Volpe is very much someone you should be holding onto.

Jeffrey Springs - SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 43% rostered

As has been the theme this week, we need to look beyond just the numbers in deciding whether to drop or hold a pitcher. Their schedule plays a critical part in our decision-making process with only five or six more starts left for most pitchers. That is even more pertinent with Springs.

Springs has been good after missing the first four months of the season. In six starts, he has a 1-2 W-L record, 3.67 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 33 Ks (27.0 IP). The WHIP is noticeable, but the short outings aren't ideal. But Springs has performed well and completed five innings in four of his last five starts.

The Rays offense won't help Springs win many games, but his upcoming schedule will help. As things currently stand, Springs will face (in order) the Twins, the Orioles, the Guardians, the Red Sox, and the Tigers, with possibly a start in the final game of the season against the Red Sox again.

The weakest opponent in terms of runs scored in August will be the Tigers. And they rank 20th in that category. All the other opponents rank in the top half for runs scored this month. Springs hasn't got a cookie schedule to close out 2024.

Springs' ERA is supported by his underlying numbers. He's got a 3.58 xFIP and 3.54 SIERA. Even in a small sample, that's a positive. It's just going to be difficult to trust Springs against those opponents. Wins will be hard to come by, so don't expect many (if any) more from him.

With a lack of innings and a weak offense supporting him, Springs isn't a sure starter. He's certainly someone I'd consider as a streaming option if you need to make up ground. He can tally eight Ks over five innings while allowing just one run. But there is still a risk, given the lineups he's facing.

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