The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Fantasy Baseball Week 22

August 18, 2024

Jamie's list of busts, overvalued, and injured players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 22 of the 2024 MLB season.

Welcome back to The Cut List for Week 22 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season -- August 19 through August 25. This is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look.

We'll look at players worthy of a drop, those worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now. Those of you experienced Cut List readers will know I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone.

If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit, the RotoBaller Discord (which you can join by clicking here), or reach out to me on X (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) reflect when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Lane Thomas - OF, Cleveland Guardians - 77% rostered

Thomas was having a decent season before the Nationals traded him. The power was down, but the speed was up. Thomas already set a career-high in stolen bases (28) before heading to Cleveland. But everything else had regressed. The hope was a move to a better offense would help with that. It hasn't.

In 15 games with the Guardians, all Thomas has to show are five runs and one stolen base. He's hitting .120/.228/.160 since the trade. That's left his season's slash line at .234/.317/.371 with eight homers, 40 RBI, 47 runs, and 29 stolen bases. For someone whose biggest asset is his speed, the lack of recent steals is a problem.

It's not like the Guardians don't run. They rank seventh in the Majors with 110 stolen bases. However, the Nationals rank second with 167. The Guardians have a superior offense, scoring 39 runs more than the Nationals this year. The Guardians don't have to steal as much to score runs.

So Thomas' stolen base tally will take a hit compared to what it could have been if he wasn't traded. Thomas has started the majority of games as the Guardians' No. 2 hitter. Given Jose Ramirez is hitting behind him most of the time, Thomas likely won't get as many green lights as he used to.

He's also not gotten on base nearly enough to get those opportunities. His first stolen base with the Guardians came on Wednesday. Ramirez was on third with one out in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Guardians were leading by three runs. It was the lowest leverage spot in which to steal a base since Thomas became a Guardian.

Verdict: It's difficult to see a situation whereby Thomas will continue stealing bases at a similar rate as he did with Washington. Any value Thomas can provide will depend on how well he hits. As a career .247 hitter, that's going to be tough to do. Unless you need steals, Thomas is expendable.

Matt Waldron - SP, San Diego Padres - 43% rostered

Everyone loves a knuckleballer. As much fun as it's been watching Waldron pitch, the results have been lacking of late. Waldron hadn't been dreadful in his recent starts but was (as expected) lit up in Colorado on Friday. He was tagged for seven runs on nine hits and one walk (5.2 IP).

Waldron has now allowed at least five runs in three of his last four starts. The inconsistency has been the biggest frustration for fantasy managers. When Waldron is good, he's been very good. But the floor from start to start has been very low, as we've seen recently.

After 25 starts, Waldron has a 7-10 W-L record, 4.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and 127 Ks (138.1 IP). Waldron has a 5.88 ERA over his last nine starts. Yet, his expected numbers have barely changed all season. His recent struggles just appear to be some expected regression, as we can see from the graph below.

There isn't anything in Waldron's numbers to believe his ERA will skyrocket. A large part of rostering Waldron boils down to how much you can trust a knuckleballer. Waldron has 10 quality starts this year. Six came in consecutive starts between May 28 and June 24, and none in his last four outings.

Waldron has only thrown more than 90 pitches in two of his last seven starts. His struggles have been a factor in that. But he's also being kept in check more, averaging 81 pitches in his three outings before Friday. Everything about Waldron's numbers says he's an ok fantasy option. Just not a good fantasy option.

Verdict: In deeper leagues, Waldron is still worthy of rostering. But in standard or shallower leagues, he's more of a streaming option against weaker opponents. That being said, it's difficult to trust a knuckleballer at any start. At this stage of the year, do you want to roster a pitcher you can't trust?

Hold For Now

Adolis Garcia - OF, Texas Rangers - 95% rostered

If you're part of the ~5% who dropped Garcia this year, I understand. I'm not going to sit here and tell you he'll have a great finish to 2024 and provide value on his ADP (~43). But, he hasn't been as bad as many think and currently ranks 71st among all hitters on Yahoo!.

That's largely down to the fact he's contributed across all the counting stats. After 117 games, Garcia has 20 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs, and 10 steals with a .225/.289/.401 slash line. Only eight other players can match those totals. Only two of them are outfield eligible.

The main frustration with Garcia has been the batting average. After ending April with a .292/.347/.585 slash line, Garcia has had a sub-.200 batting average every month since. The good news is that the streak is about to end. In 14 August games, Garcia has hit .340/.407/.491.

Given his expected batting average (xBA) is .233, I don't buy his recent surge. That being said, Garcia has been making hard contact all season, as his Statcast Profile shows us below.

The obvious problem is the lack of contact and the swing-and-miss. However, Garcia's recent hot streak has seen him restored as the Rangers cleanup hitter. Given fantasy managers have been waiting over three months for an upturn in his batting average, now's the time to hold and enjoy the resurgence.

Taj Bradley - SP, Tampa Bay Rays - 74% rostered

Bradley has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball this year. After 17 starts, he has a 6-7 W-L record, 3.49 ERA, 1.14 ERA, and 112 Ks (95.1 IP). Having missed the first month of the season, Bradley gave fantasy managers a nice boost. That was until recently.

In his last three starts, Bradley has given up 15 earned runs in 14 innings. He was tagged with the loss in all three. Whilst a little concerning, it's still not enough for me to push the panic button. Bradley's last two starts saw a BABIP of .450 and .462. That's not sustaining.

And despite the 9.54 ERA in Bradley's last three starts, they also combined for a 4.70 xFIP and 4.36 SIERA. All we've seen is his ERA climb to what we would expect it to be given his 3.50 xFIP and 3.53 SIERA on the season. There is one reason I am a little concerned about Bradley still.

His upcoming schedule is rough. Bradley's next four starts are set to be against the A's, Dodgers, Padres, and Twins. All four offenses rank in the top 10 for wRC+ since July 1. Other than the Dodgers, they ranked in the bottom 10 for K% at that time.

It'll be tough to sit Bradley next week given he's got two starts. The reality is if you're sitting him next week, there's little point keeping him rostered. If you are a bit concerned, I'd rather bench him and if Bradley comes through unscathed, you can keep rolling him out over the remainder of the season.

For now, I'd be holding Bradley. But if he gets roughed up next week, moving on from him makes sense. He'll still provide solid strikeout numbers, so if you can risk a hit on your ERA in an effort to pick up more Ks, then holding on to Bradley would be a prudent move.

On the Hot Seat

Luis Robert Jr. - OF, Chicago White Sox - 88% rostered

Just as everyone had seemingly given up on Robert Jr., he pops up with a two-homer night on Friday. That will likely have irked many fantasy managers, as it's given them a reason to keep a hold of him. While I agree with holding on to Robert Jr. (and did before Friday), there is one caveat to that.

If we look at his numbers first, we can see that it's been a frustrating season. In 67 games, Robert Jr. has a .212./.271/.421 slash line, 14 homers, 31 RBI, 30 runs, and 17 steals. That's a 162-game pace of 34 home runs, 75 RBI, 73 runs, and 41 stolen bases. That would be an incredible season.

The problem with Robert Jr. is clear. His 36.8% K% ranks in the first percentile. In certain points leagues, Robert Jr. has been a disaster given the strikeouts and that isn't something I believe will improve much in the coming weeks. That could make him expendable in such leagues.

If we look at his cumulative slash line this season, we can see how badly Robert Jr. has struggled in recent weeks. We can also see how big of a boost his 4-for-5 performance on Friday can help lift his numbers. The larger impact is down to the lack of games Robert Jr. has played this season.

A hip flexor saw him miss two months at the start of the season. It's not like we can blame any lingering impact of the injury on his struggles. Robert Jr. homered five times in his first nine games off the injured list (IL). Robert Jr. then homered five times in his next 49 games. That was before Friday.

Back to the one caveat regarding rostering Robert Jr. for the remainder of the year. This is where it becomes difficult as it's not quantifiable. There's been a belief from many that Robert Jr. has thrown in the towel this year. Understandable given how bad the White Sox have been.

But, the firing of manager Pedro Grifol may have helped. Grady Sizemore has been able to inject some life into a team set to break some unwanted records. He's certainly brought some much-needed energy into the clubhouse.

Chris Getz is compiling his list of managerial candidates, but is White Sox interim manager Grady Sizemore already forcing his name into that group? From my Newsletter today: https://t.co/w8V6Jm2IjQ

— Scott Merkin (@scottmerkin) August 14, 2024

The White Sox have only gone 2-7 since Sizemore took over as interim manager. They remain on course to lose 120 games. But following his hit last night, Robert Jr. now has a modest four-game hitting streak. Baby steps, but they are at least heading in the right direction.

If Sizemore has been able to reinvigorate Robert Jr., we may see a solid few weeks from the outfielder. We know what he's capable of, and if the main concern was a lack of care in his game, that might have changed with Grifol's firing. It's certainly worth giving Robert Jr. more time to see if Sizemore can get the best out of him.

Reader Requests

As in previous years, we're keen to hear who you want us to analyze. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread. Alternatively, you can reach out to me on X, and we'll endeavor to cover as many requests as we can each week.

Brandon Nimmo - OF, New York Mets - 84% rostered

Nimmo has been a frustrating player to roster this season. Stomach flu saw him miss a game earlier this week, and the time off may not have been a bad thing. Nimmo struggled mightily before the day off but has homered and tripled in his two games back from illness.

Despite ranking 21st among all outfielders on Yahoo! this season, Nimmo ranks 146th at the position over the last 30 days. His last two games saw him jump up 45 places in the last month. Friday's home run was his first since July 10.

If we look at Nimmo's numbers per month, we can see that he's still able to provide value with a low batting average. His counting stats have been excellent, but they have also taken a downturn recently. That's even with the Mets ranking fourth for runs scored (198) since July 1.

If you were unsure how good Nimmo's collective counting stats have been, he's one of seven players to have the home run, RBI, runs, and stolen base totals he obtained. We can't discount how good he's been throughout the season. The main question is whether he can get out of his prolonged slump.

Since July 1, Nimmo's had a 43.4% HardHit%. That's down on his 49.3% HardHit% pre-July, but it's still good. The concern comes from the fact Nimmo hadn't recorded a barrel since July 12 until Friday's home run. His 10.1% Barrel% on the season ranks in the 70th percentile so it's only a recent problem.

Nimmo is still hitting second in the Mets lineup and I'd be more concerned about Nimmo if they weren't scoring runs. It's tough to believe Nimmo won't get out of his recent slump with the last two games possibly being a catalyst to another big few weeks.

Expecting a repeat of Nimmo's June isn't realistic. His April and May can be used as a benchmark as to what to expect over the remainder of 2024. That would make Nimmo very much worth holding onto.

Chris Bassitt - SP, Toronto Blue Jays - 77% rostered

Bassitt has been one of the most reliable and valuable starting pitchers in fantasy for years. While he's still been healthy this year, his performances haven't been as good as in recent seasons. After 25 starts (139.0 IP), Bassitt has a 9-12 W-L record, 4.34 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 134 Ks.

His numbers have taken a significant downturn recently. Since July 1, Bassitt has a 6.91 ERA (eight starts). It is worth noting that he has a 4.62 xFIP and 4.35 SIERA in those eight starts. On the season, Bassitt has a 4.27 xFIP and 4.30 SIERA. His recent struggles have been a bit unfortunate.

That's not to say Bassitt hasn't contributed to the struggles. His sinker has taken a big step back this year and given it's his most-thrown pitch (41.0% usage), that's a problem. Last year his sinker had a .315 xwOBA and .280 wOBA against it. This year, it has a .363 xwOBA and .383 wOBA against it.

Bassitt had a 3.60 ERA last year but there were some red flags coming into this season. Largely down to his 4.21 xFIP and 4.25 SIERA. Those are very similar to this year and his ERA has matched them. It seems like Bassitt gave us a warning in 2023 that things were about to take a downward turn.

In shallower leagues, moving on from Bassitt is certainly something I'd be actively exploring. In deeper leagues, it'll be less likely you can find a suitable replacement. I still wouldn't be averse to looking for someone else or streaming in his spot. It's tough to trust Bassitt can return to his 2023 form.

Kutter Crawford - SP, Boston Red Sox - 73% rostered

Before we delve into Crawford's numbers, I want to highlight how lucky wins are. In his first 10 starts of 2024, Crawford had a 2.17 ERA and just two wins. He reached the five-inning threshold in nine of those starts. In Crawford's last five starts (24.0 IP), he has a 9.75 ERA and two wins.

Those recent outings have seen Crawford's numbers suffer. On the year, he has an 8-9 W-L record, 4.17 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and 131 Ks (138.0 IP). Similar numbers to Bassitt. If we look at Crawford's numbers throughout the season, all we're witnessing is an expected increase in his ERA.

The main issue Crawford experienced during his recent struggles was home runs. Crawford gave up 14 homers in his first 20 starts of the season. He was taken deep 12 times in his subsequent three starts. He's only allowed one home run in his last two starts so at least seems to have sorted that issue out.

And in his most recent start on Tuesday, three of the four earned runs charged to Crawford scored after he left the game. He exited the game with one out in the sixth inning, and the bases loaded. Cam Booser then allowed a single and back-to-back walks, scoring all of the inherited baserunners.

While I have more faith in Crawford than Bassitt over the remainder of the season, there is something to note. His next two starts are set to be against the Orioles and Diamondbacks. He's also due to face the Mets to begin September after facing Toronto.

That means three of Crawford's next four starts are set to come against top-1o run-scoring offenses. Two of which are in the top three, and two of four are top-5 since July 1. If you're fighting to reach the playoffs in your head-to-head leagues, it's difficult to trust Crawford with those matchups.

Crawford has faced the Orioles twice this year. He shut them out over five innings and allowed five earned runs in six innings. It's tough to know what to expect from Crawford over the next two weeks. I don't believe he has to be rostered in anything except deeper leagues but he's not s sure cut if there are limited options on waivers.

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