The AFC North: Who's Even Good?

October 12, 2023

Justin looks at the current state of the AFC North. Who will win the division out of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers?

The AFC North is usually one of the best divisions in football. I mean, sure, the Browns have been perennial losers since the division began, but the Steelers and Ravens are always contenders and the Bengals have become Super Bowl threats since drafting Joe Burrow. And even those Browns should be good since they traded for quarterback Deshaun Watson.

But this year, the AFC North just feels mediocre. The Steelers currently lead the division at 3-2, but the team is second-t0-last in the division in both points for and points against.

It's a mess. But someone's got to emerge out of that mess and win the thing. Let's analyze where all the teams in the division are at and figure out who'll be on top when all's said and done.

Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens sit at 3-2 on the season. They opened the year with wins over the Texans and Bengals, but are 1-2 over the last three games, losing to the Colts and Steelers. Their only win in that span was against the Browns, a 28-3 victory.

Baltimore looks fine so far. The loss to the Steelers was a pretty tough pill to swallow, but Baltimore's 109 points scored are the most of any AFC North team, while the 75 points allowed are second-best behind only the Browns.

Lamar Jackson has completed 69.9% of his passes this season, but he's thrown just four touchdown passes through five games. His touchdown percentage is at 2.8%, the lowest of his career. Last season, for example, 5.2% of Jackson's passes went for touchdowns, leading to 17 of them in just 12 games.  He's made up for that by scoring four rushing scores, though.

Overall, things have gone mostly fine for the Ravens. If Jackson can get the chains moving more consistently—Baltimore ranks 13th in first downs—then this team should be able to win plenty of games.

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals weren't supposed to look like this. They've allowed 114 points so far this season, most in the AFC North. That includes four games where their opponent scored at least 20 points.

But while the defense has been a concern, a bigger concern has been that the Bengals were held without a touchdown twice this season, losing 24-3 to the Browns and 27-3 to the Titans. That shouldn't happen to a team led by Joe Burrow.

Burrow didn't look like himself at the beginning of the season because of a strained calf. In the Browns loss, he was 14-for-31 for 82 yards. In the loss to the Titans, he was 20-for-30 for 165 yards.

This past Sunday though, the Bengals finally looked like the Bengals in a 34-20 win over Arizona. Burrow threw for 317 yards and three touchdowns. Ja'Marr Chase had 15 catches for 192 yards, catching all three of Burrow's scores. They managed this with Tee Higgins sidelined by a rib injury.

The Bengals that we saw in Week 5 are contenders. If Burrow's healthy, I'm pretty confident that the Bengals will look more like they did this week than how they looked earlier in the season.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns have one big quandary right now: the quarterback position. It shouldn't be a concern considering they traded for Deshaun Watson last year, but a combination of ineffectiveness from Watson and then a shoulder injury have the team sitting at 2-2.

Watson completed under 60% of his passes in his first two games, then finally had a good showing in a 27-3 win over the Titans, going 27-for-33 for 289 yards and two touchdowns. Then, he got hurt. The Browns had to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson against the Ravens and the rookie really struggled, going 19-for-36 for 121 yards and three interceptions.

To make matters worse, the team lost its star running back to a torn MCL last month. The team has turned to a combination of Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and Pierre Strong Jr. at the position, but it isn't the same.

The good news for the Browns? Their defense is good. The team's tied with the Ravens for the second-fewest points allowed per game in the NFL this season, and they're the only team allowing under 200 yards per game. If the defense keeps up and Watson gets back on the field soon, this team will be just fine, though they lack the same ceiling as the Ravens and Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers should be the worst team in the AFC North because they have the worst starting quarterback. Kenny Pickett has upside, but the reality right now is that he isn't as good as Burrow, Jackson, and Watson.

But actually, the 3-2 Steelers lead the AFC North. Surprise!

Pittsburgh allows the second-most points per game in the division. Their 15.8 points per game ranks fourth-worst in the NFL and worst in the division. So, how are the Steelers winning games?

Well, two of the wins came in the division. The third came against a struggling Raiders team. Pickett hasn't been great, but he's been serviceable, I suppose. Sure, he has the third-worst completion percentage among quarterbacks to take at least 100 snaps. And sure, he's got the eighth-worst yards per attempt of those same players. But after a bit of a rough start, he's thrown just one interception over the last three games. Pickett doesn't look like a quarterback who can win games single-handedly, but he can get the victory if everything goes right.

Never count a team coached by Mike Tomlin out, even if the Steelers have the worst team in the division on paper.

Who Wins The Division?

You know how I just said, "Never count a team coached by Mike Tomlin out?" Well, I'm actually going to do that now. Not that I don't think the Steelers have some good pieces. It's just that two AFC North teams in particular are poised to turn their seasons around.

The Bengals and Ravens are good teams. Lamar Jackson's not going to keep throwing touchdowns at a career-low rate. Joe Burrow's going to get healthier. These two teams still have a lot of wins ahead of them.

Of the two, I lean toward the Bengals, despite their early struggles. The Burrow/Chase combination is tough to beat, and the Ravens still have some issues when it comes to skill-position talent. But the AFC North isn't nearly as mediocre as it's looked to start the season. Both teams should find their way to the postseason.

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