Projecting the Titans Offense Without Derrick Henry

November 5, 2021

The Tennessee Titans lost star running back Derrick Henry to injury before Week 9 of the 2021 season, much to the shock of fantasy football managers. Pierre Camus evaluates the team's offense for the rest of the season including a look at RBs Adrian Peterson and Jeremy McNichols.

The initial shock of Derrick Henry's season-ending injury was a stinging slap to the face of the Titans fanbase right after a fourth straight victory that has them sitting as the top seed in the AFC. For fantasy football GMs in a similar position thanks to the RB1's dominance, it's been a similarly tumultuous week.

Hopefully, those with Henry have progressed beyond the denial, anger, and depression stages and have moved into acceptance. A little bargaining might be necessary too, just in a different way. But now the task of trying to replace him is left to undertake both in reality and fantasy.

In this space, I will dig into the Tennessee offense to decipher who will see an increase in fantasy value and who is worth putting into lineups for Week 9 and beyond.

A Titanic Offense Ready to Sink?

After the first eight games, Tennessee had gained the seventh-most total yardage of any team with 3,017 yards of offense. Only three teams have a higher percentage of yardage come from the running game at 39%, nearly off it accounted for by Henry.

The Bears run for 51% of the total yardage but mostly because they are dead last in passing and total yards. The Browns and Saints have a 42% and 40% team rushing percentage, respectively. The Saints have the second-lowest total yardage and passing yardage in the league above only Chicago. That leaves Cleveland as the most comparable offense to Tennessee and they are, in fact, just ahead of them in total yards.

Both offenses function very similarly by relying on the run to set up the pass. Their quarterbacks are efficient in limited capacity but are best used as game managers rather than high-volume passers. The key difference is that Cleveland deploys a two-man RB committee of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than just one runner like Henry. They were without Chubb for two games and Hunt has been out since Week 7 but only once were both backs missing in action. Even then, backup D'Ernest Johnson ran for 146 yards as the starter. In Cleveland's system, the RBs are practically interchangeable; it's not the case for Tennessee.

Derrick Henry has the highest team market share of carries at RB by far at 84%. He has toted the rock 219 times in eight games; only 41 rush attempts didn't belong to Henry, with QB Ryan Tannehill the team's second-leading rusher at 165 yards on 23 carries. He dominated team rush attempt rate by position even more at 95%. The next closest is Najee Harris at 88% followed by Dalvin Cook at 81%.

Henry has been dominant, no doubt. Most of that has been based on the insane volume of touches, though. Henry led the league with 303 carries in 2019 and again with 378 carries in 2020. Through Week 8, he was on pace for the most touches of his career with a league-high 219 carries and a career-high 2.3 receptions per game that is double his previous mark of 1.2 R/G. The irony is that which made him so valuable in fantasy is ultimately what led to the Jones fracture on his right foot which hampered him the last two games and led to season-ending surgery.

It goes without saying that whoever plays running back in Tennessee won't get anything close to the number of touches King Henry did. That doesn't bode well because he has seen his effectiveness wane the last two years despite his spike in fantasy points.

Henry's usage has jumped to astronomical (by modern NFL standards) rates but he has seen his rushing average drop down to 4.3 yards per carry this season. Many will say this was bound to happen eventually and it's hard to argue otherwise. The point is that if the best running back in the game was posting a pedestrian rushing average, it would be hard to imagine another RB in this system doing too well. Still, a running back with a path to touches is invaluable these days, so let's examine the current backfield in Tennessee.

Running Game Options

Despite much speculation that they might trade for a running back like Melvin Gordon or Marlon Mack, the NFL trade deadline came and went without such a move being made to replace Henry. In fact, no RBs changed teams in a completely uneventful deadline day on the offensive side of the ball.

Instead, the Titans opted to sign 36-year-old Adrian Peterson, who has not played yet in 2021. Peterson last appeared with Detroit in 2020 where he ran for 604 yards in 156 carries. Many in the fantasy community believe Peterson is washed up because he ran for fewer than four yards per carry and didn't have a 100-yard game last season. For what it's worth, Peterson still has confidence in his ability.

I think I can still do that 🤣😂🦾 https://t.co/p8RPsuJz8N

— Adrian Peterson (@AdrianPeterson) November 1, 2021

The passing-down back will remain Jeremy McNichols, who has 21 receptions on 27 targets for 203 yards. Like all other Titans backs, he was not used as a runner, tallying seven carries. It might logically follow that McNichols will have a chance to earn carries with Henry out but it's something he's never really done in the NFL. He saw 47 rush attempts in Tennessee last year and totaled two rush attempts over the previous three years in sparse game action with Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and San Francisco. In other words, this isn't a potential lead back who just needs a shot. He may see around 5-7 carries a game but the floor is exactly the same as it was with Henry on the field: practically zero.

The third running back on the Titans' active roster is D'Onta Foreman, who was signed off the practice squad. Foreman hasn't appeared in a game this season but did play in six contests for Tennessee last year, rushing 22 times for 95 yards. Foreman's promising 2017 rookie campaign with the Colts was cut short by an Achilles tear and he has struggled to stay in the league since then. The former UT Longhorn is the closest in build to Henry with a playing weight of 236 pounds and boasts a Speed Score in the 94th percentile; he ran a 4.46 40 on his Pro Day years ago. He doesn't have the same level of physicality or the top-end breakaway speed of Henry, but then again who does?

Last year's third-round pick, Darrynton Evans, would have had a golden opportunity to contribute but he simply can't stay healthy. Evans missed the first six games of the year, came back to play in Week 7, and now is back on IR with the same knee injury. He can be dropped in all formats, including dynasty.

Does the Passing Game Get a Boost?

Another issue of interest to fantasy managers is how Ryan Tannehill and his wide receivers will fare without Derrick Henry. The simple truth is this: we have no idea.

Henry has played in 86 of a possible 88 games throughout his career. The last time he didn't suit up was Week 16 of 2019. That's the only time we've seen Ryan Tannehill in a Titans uniform without Henry lined up behind him. For what it's worth, he threw for 272 yards and three TDs that game but it was on just 27 pass attempts despite a 10-point deficit entering the fourth quarter.

Tennessee is unlikely to turn into a pass-first offense because that's not how they are built and it's not how their coaches or personnel are accustomed to doing things. Their defense frequently lapses to the point that they are playing from behind but it hasn't changed the gameplan. Ryan Tannehill is 17th in pass attempts this season and was 18th last season. He averages 250.3 yards per game, good for 14th. He's as middle-of-the-road as it gets, making him a high-end QB2 and occasional streamer with upside but not a league winner by any stretch. Not much should change because even a slight uptick in volume will be offset by the reduction in offensive efficiency. In other words, without Henry, he might get to throw it or run it in himself when they get to the red zone now but they'll have to get there first.

For what it's worth, Titans' OC Todd Dowling has publicly stated that we should expect to see more of the same going forward.

#Titans OC Todd Downing: I'd be doing the offense a disservice if I jerked the wheel on our identity at this point of the season with Derrick Henry out

— Ben Arthur (@benyarthur) November 4, 2021

As far as the receiving corps, A.J. Brown sees no change in value - he has proven himself to be a weekly WR1 when healthy and was never a player who was dependent on heavy target volume. Julio Jones is not startable for the simple fact he cannot stay healthy and is still acclimating to a new quarterback. Don't even think about the rest of the receivers or tight ends on this offense - they weren't fantasy-relevant before and they won't be in the near future.

How to Proceed

Let's start with the most immediate concern. If you've lost Henry on your fantasy team, you likely are desperate for a replacement. First, the in-house options.

If you've added McNichols and/or Peterson, it's not so much that you want them as you need them. Despite the uncertainty of how the touches will be distributed among the Tennessee running backs, anyone other than Derrick Henry is a must-sit in Week 9. The Titans have the displeasure of facing the Rams who decided their top-five offense needed to get stronger by adding nine-time Pro Bowler Von Miller. Resident O-line expert Dan Fornek has already warned against starting Titans in this matchup. Their top tackle, Taylor Lewan, has battled injuries this season but he played 99% of the team's offensive snaps in Week 8 so at least he should be a full participant.

Over the long term, McNichols is bound to be the one who benefits most because he will be the pass-catching back and he knows the offense the best. He isn't guaranteed to get the most touches but he'll get the ones that count and has the highest floor. The ceiling is admittedly low, however, so he is at best an RB3 in PPR leagues and bench depth in standard leagues.

Peterson isn't the most inspiring addition in fantasy but he could wind up as the lead back. In games he started for Detroit last year, he averaged 10.7 attempts per game. On an objectively better team, he should see more favorable game script and average between 12-15 attempts per game with the occasional reception.

The main appeal with AP is his touchdown upside. Henry is currently second in the league in red-zone attempts (37) and third in money-zone attempts (8). Tennessee should utilize him enough to provide high-end RB3 value although that comes with a slight bump in non-PPR leagues. He is worth adding in most leagues of 12 teams or more.

Those who missed out on the other two Tennessee RBs, chose to pivot elsewhere, or simply have a bench spot to spare might want to stash Foreman in hopes that he emerges from this backfield as the best fantasy asset. It's a longshot but in this day of endless injuries at the position, any flier is worth taking. That couldn't be more true when it comes to replacing the overall RB1, Derrick Henry.

Other options that could still be available on the waiver wire include: Boston Scott, Phillip Lindsay, or Ty Johnson. Not great options, mind you, but options nonetheless.

There are numerous trade scenarios that might play a role in compensating for the loss of a dominant running back, such as: buying low on David Montgomery or Kareem Hunt before they return from injury, trying a two-for-one to grab cheap stopgaps like James Conner and Zack Moss in exchange for a WR, assuming you have the depth, or swap out a top-tier WR for another RB1 like Joe Mixon.

All told, things will be very different for the Titans the remainder of this season but they will likely survive and make the postseason. Fantasy teams might not be so lucky but remember that it ain't over til it's over!

The comeback will be major 👑 @KingHenry_2 pic.twitter.com/yimRj5YYth

— Ryan Tannehill (@ryantannehill1) November 3, 2021

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