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The New Orleans Saints re-signed quarterback Jameis Winston to compete with Taysom Hill for the starting QB position. Dom Petrillo evaluates the fantasy football impact of this move and the draft value of each in 2021.
Drew Brees has retired and the New Orleans Saints look to move forward with either Taysom Hill or Jameis Winston. So, which one is better?
Of course, we mean which one is better for fantasy. This is a fantasy website, and we all know fantasy football is more important than regular football. Even though that question is easy to decide, the question of which quarterback we want in New Orleans is more difficult. And it has a lot to do with who you have on your roster this upcoming season.
If you have Michael Thomas, Adam Trautman, or Alvin Kamara on your roster you will have one answer: Jameis Winston. If you have Taysom Hill on your roster, then your answer is Taysom Hill. So, let us break it down and find out why.
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If Jameis Winston Starts
The last time we saw Winston start for a team it was not a great sight. This was due, in part, to him also not having great sight. Hopefully, the Lasik procedure he had before last season has helped this. And hopefully a season behind Brees and working with Sean Payton has fixed a lot of his other faults as well.
Since entering the league as the first overall draft pick, Winston has been nothing short of a turnover machine. While seemingly the Buccaneers did not care at first, this all changed after a historic season in 2019 in which Winston threw for 5,109 yards and 33 TD passes. Sounds great but this coincided with Winston having 30 interceptions and only completing 60.7% of his passes, Not including those which ended up being caught by the other team.
This type of inconsistency encouraged Tampa Bay to make the move and release him. By doing this, they were able to bring in Tom Brady and win the Super Bowl in the 2020 season while Winston became the backup and third-string QB in New Orleans for a season. That lost season of 2020 could be just what the doctor ordered for Winston. He could finally settle in. Something he was unable to do with the Buccaneers franchise who had to throw him into the fire from day one.
This is not to say he will be the next Brees. But he is in the same mold of a high-volume passer who throws for a lot of yardage. For fantasy players, this is exactly what we want in a QB. Not only will he throw for 30 TD again, but he will also throw for multiple 300-yard games while doing so. He can also rely on the dump down passing to Kamara for a lot of production which should make his managers ecstatic.
In the receiving corps, the Saints have Michael Thomas and really no one else. Adam Trautman will need to step up in the absence of both Jared Cook and Josh Hill. If he is able to do so, he could be the Jimmy Graham in the offense for Winston. But the real key will be Thomas.
Thomas is the king of the slant route. This route will do two things. It will provide an elite receiver for Winston to throw to and it will also limit the deep shots he will have to take. By limiting the number of deep shots Winston takes, this will also limit the number of interceptions he should throw. This can only mean good things for all parties involved. Especially us Saints fans.
As for Kamara and Thomas. If Winston wins the job, they will be at peak value. He is a gunslinger, and this will not change. The offense will be able to run fast and hopefully efficiently with him behind center.
Alvin Kamara will again challenge Christian McCaffrey as the best running back in the NFL and he will again enhance his rushing stats with more than 80 receptions. This will again lead him to finish as a top-three back for fantasy.
Michael Thomas is coming off a disappointing season. But just one year removed from setting the all-time receptions record, this will be seen as a minor blip. Winston will target him early and often and he will be back over the 100-reception mark and possibly more behind only Davante Adams and maybe DeAndre Hopkins, there is no one I trust more at the position than Thomas. With Winston throwing the ball, there is a real chance Thomas again finishes as the WR one after a one-season hiatus. What about Winston himself?
Even with all the interceptions, Winston finished as a top-eight QB in 2019. Cutting down on those as well as raising his completion percentage with a pass-catching RB will only improve this number. Many will shy away from him due to the unknown. But if he is the starter and you can draft him late, he is in contention for a top-five QB finish. But should be no worse than a top eight.
If Taysom Hill Starts
As a starter last season, Hill was 3-1. That in and of itself is wonderful. Most of this had to do with his rushing ability though, not his passing.
In those four games as well as sparing play in the other 12, Hill had a great 72.7% completion rate. This came on 88 of 121 passing for a total of 984 yards. He managed a measly four TD while only throwing two interceptions in that time.
The completion percentage, while a great number will go down as he will be forced to throw more often. At least we hope he will throw it more. If not, we are going to be looking at Hill as a poor man Lamar Jackson. A QB who will be a rush machine but do little for the passing game.
Jackson has averaged less than 200 yards in the passing game in each of his seasons in Baltimore. This has left his receivers frantic. Not to mention their fantasy managers, who were reeling after buying into a Hollywood breakout in 2020. Guilty as charged. Hill does not have the arm or the legs to compete with Jackson for the fantasy stature of a top QB.
Kamara is an elite running back. But what makes him elite is his work in the pass game. After two straight seasons of 81 receptions, he managed to bump it up to 83 in 2020. He had 16 rushing Td and added five more through the air, but we saw the limited work he was given during the spell of games when Taysom hill was at the helm. No one wants to relive it.
Michael Thomas and Adam Troutman will also take a massive hit if Hill is named the QB starter after camp. Not only did Hill not hand the ball of to Kamara, he also was unable to find Thomas or any other pass catcher for much production outside the Denver Broncos massacre in which the Broncos had no healthy QB on the roster and I could have thrown against them. As George Carlin would say, if this is all he has, I for one, am not impressed.
The likelihood of Hill winning the job is high. The Saints love him, and Sean Payton loves him. This will be great if you draft him late. Much like Winston, although for different reasons, he could be a top-eight QB with his rushing ability and the major advantage they have in fantasy scoring. As for the rest of the team, look out.
Alvin Kamara is currently a top-three RB for fantasy entering 2021. If it is announced that Hill is in fact the starter, he will move outside of my top five and perhaps as low as seven or eight. As for Michael Thomas. He is coming off an injury-plagued season. But he is still one of the best WR in the NFL. Taking a contract restructure shows his intentions to be there and see what happens. He could make me eat my words and get to 149 receptions again. With Taysom hill, I do not see it. He would move from a top-five WR to barely holding on to a top 12 position in the ranks should Hill be named starter. For the sake of fantasy, let us all hope it is Winston and not Hill who gets the nod.
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