Tape Tells All: Sam Darnold's Rushing Ability

October 7, 2021

Justin Carter breaks down Carolina Panthers quarterback Sam Darnold's performance in Week 4 and evaluates his fantasy football upside going forward in the 2021 NFL season.

Welcome back to Tape Tells All, the weekly series where I look at film for something that happened in the NFL this week.

So, Sam Darnold runs now. He has more rushing touchdowns through four games than any quarterback ever has.

What's going on with Darnold? Is he good now? Is he going to keep running? Is this just another example of the Adam Gase reverse curse? Let's investigate.

Background Information

You all know Sam Darnold. He's the former Jets quarterback whose NFL career was consistently disappointing. Here are his career passing numbers per Pro Football Reference:

and here are his rushing numbers

Well, those numbers sure seem to have taken a notable uptick this season!

I'm mainly going to be looking at the rushing of Darnold because that's what can set him apart from other quarterbacks, but let's talk about the passing for a little bit first.

Darnold has seen increases across the board. The completion percentage went from 59.6 percent last year to 67.8 percent this year. He has five touchdowns in four games -- last year, he had nine in 12 games. He's at 297.3 yards per game, a huge increase from his 184.0 last season.

And if we want to get into some advanced stats -- courtesy of PlayerProfiler -- and how Darnold compares in passing categories to other guys, then we'd see that he is:

• 15th in accuracy rating
• 11th in yards per attempt
• 12th in true completion percentage
• 5th in pressured completion percentage
• 6th in total QBR

Solid numbers that show Darnold isn't, like, an elite passer or anything, but that he also can be a productive, mid-level thrower with upside.

But that isn't the reason we're talking about Darnold today.

No, we're talking about the five touchdown runs. The five carries per game. Is Sam Darnold going to keep adding value on the ground, even if the touchdown rate itself is unsustainable?

The Game Tape

Let's look at some various rushing attempts from Sam Darnold.

Here was that fifth touchdown run, which came against Dallas. When you think about quarterbacks finding the end zone on the ground and those quarterbacks aren't the Lamar Jacksons and Josh Allens of the world, you likely turn to one of two possibilities: a scramble or a sneak.

But this a designed run from outside of the 10-yard line. Darnold takes the shotgun step, drops back on step, then immediately takes off over the middle. The Panthers offensive line has blocked off the line of scrimmage, allowing Darnold to easily scoot to the second level. There, he has two players to beat, but he runs diagonally right, getting him out of the path of the Cowboys linebacker. Then, it's just Darnold trying to beat a DB to the pylon. D.J. Moore helps hold things up at the goal line and Darnold runs in.

Here was his other touchdown against the Cowboys:

WE'VE GOT A REAL LIVE OPTION PLAY FOLKS. Not some RPO handoff, but an actual, college football-style option, with Darnold running right with a back behind him ready for the pitch.

But Darnold keeps it, spotting a hole up the middle and pivoting perfectly to hit that open hole and get in for the score.

That's been what's impressed me most about Darnold as a runner: his vision. Matt Rhule is coming from the college ranks and is going to put plays like this in the playbook, but that doesn't mean they'll magically work. You need a quarterback who can make them work. And so far, these designed red zone runs for Darnold are definitely working.

Fantasy Impact

Now look, Sam Darnold won't probably won't lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns this season.

But his usage so far feels sustainable in that the Panthers will continue to generate opportunities for Darnold to run the ball, and sometimes those opportunities will be in the red zone and will turn into a touchdown.

The Panthers also will be getting Christian McCaffrey back, which cuts into some of those Darnold opportunities. But the team also doesn't have the best red-zone receiving threats -- like, if you're Sam Darnold, you're running for the end zone all day long instead of throwing to Ian Thomas or Tommy Tremble, right?

D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson are very good receivers, but when the field shrinks, neither has the ideal build for that more-physical brand of football. Moore, for example, is fourth among receivers in targets, but 19th in red zone targets. Anderson has 22 targets, but none in red zone.

Darnold being able to move the ball with his feet down there opens things up for the Panthers.

In terms of fantasy, Darnold sits as the overall QB5. That's probably not sustainable. But the combination of his accurate passing with his ability to generate yards on the ground has taken him from being someone who was on the fringe of being rosterable to someone who can be your starting QB when he has a good matchup and who you can probably survive with in a bad matchup. Consider him a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside going forward right now.

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